Are We Heading For A Recession Like In The 30s?

[El Cid 214]

6 minutes ago, Arnold_Lane said:

Your posts in this topic are somewhat unclear.  Do you think opening all shops tomorrow will stimulate growth?  Would you continue lockdown and if so what would you do to help the economy during an extended lockdown?

 

What alternatives to monetary policy do you favour over QE?

Opening the shops will allowing spending, getting back to 'normal' will allow people to work and create wealth.

I am not an expert from the BofE on furlong but if they use QE they should take measures that helps people without assets. The rich have got richer, whilst the poor have stood still.

[apelike 10]

2 hours ago, Thorpist said:

Now we are exhorted to go out and spend to drive up consumption. seems like  the priority is to drive up spending and pretend it doesn't affect the  environment.

I'm not sure that is the case as people have not be out spending much for almost 3 months now and the stocks have already been made and paid for by the stores, and is still there. The idea, I'm certain, is to get people out to spend money again to support those stores/shops that have not been open for ages and are facing financial meltdown so that fewer jobs are lost as possible. As it is, many will still go under and jobs will be lost despite that.

[Arnold_Lane 0]

29 minutes ago, El Cid said:

Opening the shops will allowing spending, getting back to 'normal' will allow people to work and create wealth.

I am not an expert from the BofE on furlong but if they use QE they should take measures that helps people without assets. The rich have got richer, whilst the poor have stood still.

I'm not so sure.  Nine million people are currently furloughed and a large chunk of those work in hospitality so are lower earners.  On 80% pay they are not as likely to have disposable income after the essentials.  There are also many people who earn more than the furlough cap so had to tighten their belts.  In terms of manufacturing, companies will have come up with novel ways to continue to do business with fewer staff and so many workers might not have a job to go back to so will be keeping money back just in case.

 

I'm not sure we will see people flock to the shops like we have to beaches etc. and the internet has made conspicuous consumption easy from home anyway.

 

Personally, I'm not keen on the idea of booking a slot at the local pub and then subjected to a two drink limit - if that is how it plays out.  I'd rather have friends over for a few beers in the garden.

 

Regarding QE:  Your post states the average Joe didn't notice the effects but the top 5% got richer.  I think that's better than everyone getting poorer.  I'm also not sure QE can be used in the way you want it to be.  The assets are bought by central banks to increase the money supply, not you and I.

 

Edited June 14, 2020 by Arnold_Lane

[Thorpist 72]

Surely buying stored stock we don't need is encouragement for shops to refill with more stuff which in turn just feeds consumerism.

is it time for society to have a completely different attitude to possessions?

The amount of plastic used in toys to keep children placated is mind boggling especially when homes up and down the country have piles of toys that are forgotten about.

lego springs to mind as something that is continually being sold when there must be masses of unused lego out there.

 

 

[Arnold_Lane 0]

“I'm not sure we will see people flock to the shops like we have to beaches etc. and the internet has made conspicuous consumption easy from home anyway.“

Looking at the press coverage of queues it seems I was wrong.  

[casualbystander 0]

We may be heading for a bigger recession than we ever expected but if you are smart you can make some good money with shares at the moment, i have had a great few weeks with some airline shares and hospitality shares , both up and down like a yo yo.

[El Cid 214]

2 hours ago, casualbystander said:

We may be heading for a bigger recession than we ever expected but if you are smart you can make some good money with shares at the moment, i have had a great few weeks with some airline shares and hospitality shares , both up and down like a yo yo.

If my wage had been paid into my bank thgis morning when I tried to buy shares, I would be 1% in front by now.

It could quite easily go the other way, but I may do it later.

I shouldnt really be gambling my wage like that 

[casualbystander 0]

2 hours ago, El Cid said:

If my wage had been paid into my bank thgis morning when I tried to buy shares, I would be 1% in front by now.

It could quite easily go the other way, but I may do it later.

I shouldnt really be gambling my wage like that 

there are shares giving up to 30-40% roi, had a few last week but if you cant afford to lose dont trade in shares i wouldn't recommend your month salary!! it is just that gambling and reading the market. hospitality are due to boost on the 1m reduction.

 

[bassett one 449]

been food shopping and its manic out there,just got my needed food,skipped the huge queues at the rest of the shops,seems things could get back to normal,another lockdown with thousands queueing and shopping,2 metre rules in the bin

[El Cid 214]

3 hours ago, casualbystander said:

there are shares giving up to 30-40% roi, had a few last week but if you cant afford to lose dont trade in shares i wouldn't recommend your month salary!! it is just that gambling and reading the market. hospitality are due to boost on the 1m reduction.

 

My wage hasnt be put in yet, so I didnt buy any shares. The one I was going to buy is up 3.5%

 

3 hours ago, bassett one said:

been food shopping and its manic out there,just got my needed food,skipped the huge queues at the rest of the shops,seems things could get back to normal,another lockdown with thousands queueing and shopping,2 metre rules in the bin

Certainly busier, that is what Boris wants.

[RollingJ 2,002]

13 minutes ago, El Cid said:

 

 

Certainly busier, that is what Boris wants.

We have to attempt to get back to a more 'normal' situation sometime - the present set-up is unsustainable, and damaging, both emotionally  and financially - IMHO.

[poppet2 13]

On 31/05/2020 at 18:42, Albert the Cat said:

This is complete rubbish. Everything you have said here is wrong. 

Oh yeah, now who's talking rubbish? So why has it just been announced this evening that the bank of England is going to pump a hundred billion into the economy. In other words they are going to print money, even if technically some of this money will digitally be pumped into the economy. 

It was only a matter of time. I rest my case. 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/18/bank-of-england-uk-economy-quantitative-easing-coronavirus-crisis

 

Edited June 18, 2020 by poppet2