Are We Heading For A Recession Like In The 30s?

[*_ash_* 88]

23 hours ago, andyofborg said:

I think the hope is that the lockdown will slow down the rate of transmission of the virus to a rate where the NHS and other services can cope with it.  After that then the various restrictions can slowly be relaxed.

 

This is, of course, predicated on people not going to the beach or having a street party tomorrow and probably also an adequate testing regime. 

 

I've posted this elsewhere, but the various government schemes, should hopefully be holding enough people in work so that the economy will start to bounce back fairly quickly. My employer deals with China and Hong Kong and that seemed to be happening there, though now all the shops in the rest of the world are closed I imagine things are slowing down again. 

 

I like this optimism in the last paragraph, but I just can't see any kind of normality for many months.

 

Things like pubs and restaurants, and night clubs, arenas, theatres, I think will be not the same for a long time, if ever, and this type of thing employs hundreds of thousands. These all affect me, because I drove these people to these places! I probably should be looking to change to a hackne carriage, as much safer environment, and social distancing isn't possible in my PHV. Social distancing will be around now until the testing/vaccine and that's also months away.

 

-

 

As for the point about beaches and parks, I'm not watching any news at all now, and in particular today and tomorrow, as if I see images of people ignoring advice, the TV might get a brick in it

 

Joking of course, but I would stick them all on a bus, and drive them to a football stadium or something, and they can spend 2 weeks in there.  We'll all end up in worse lockdown because of idiots.

 

I can just about tolerate this current method.

1 hour ago, makapaka said:

I hate to be negative but I can’t see any change to this for a few months never mind a few weeks and even then I think it will be limited.

 

theres no logic that says to me that in 2/3/4 weeks if we were to relax it we won’t just end up

back in the exact same state as we are in now a couple of weeks later.

 

the only way I think they could relax it slightly would maybe be on the type of shop that could reopen albeit with distancing restrictions.

 

for example - could they allow somewhere like B&Q / Homebase etc to reopen - to allow people to maybe do their own diy/garden projects to pass on time albeit still staying in doors.

 

i think the economy will be devastated personally. 

bold, yes despite my liking of andy's optimism, I'm far more leaning to this.

 

I can't see how I can earn a living, as was struggling when it was normal life - and the balance always a fine one in many businesses. I'm trying not to think about it though. That's why no news, limited internet (just a few forum posts, and links to sites that have good info.

[El Cid 220]

2 hours ago, makapaka said:

i think the economy will be devastated personally. 

The medical advice which Boris says he is following, will always err on the side of a lockdown, but at some point he needs to say that the debt and recession is doing more harm than the virus. That wont be easy, if he is following medical advice.

[tinfoilhat 11]

32 minutes ago, El Cid said:

The medical advice which Boris says he is following, will always err on the side of a lockdown, but at some point he needs to say that the debt and recession is doing more harm than the virus. That wont be easy, if he is following medical advice.

If the economy trumps everything, why do we treat the old and sick who aren't economically active? Think of the money we would save!

[tinfoilhat 11]

1 hour ago, *_ash_* said:

I like this optimism in the last paragraph, but I just can't see any kind of normality for many months.

 

Things like pubs and restaurants, and night clubs, arenas, theatres, I think will be not the same for a long time, if ever, and this type of thing employs hundreds of thousands. These all affect me, because I drove these people to these places! I probably should be looking to change to a hackne carriage, as much safer environment, and social distancing isn't possible in my PHV. Social distancing will be around now until the testing/vaccine and that's also months away.

 

-

 

 

Entire industries could hit the buffers. I'm guessing when it's all finished half the airlines won't be there anymore. I can cling on for a few months - but then I need work to come in, paying work. Will it? 

[El Cid 220]

58 minutes ago, tinfoilhat said:

If the economy trumps everything, why do we treat the old and sick who aren't economically active? Think of the money we would save!

Its a ballance, we dont live in a dictatorship. Will a lockdown do more harm than good after 2/3/4 months, it will stop at some point and there will still be deaths. I will repeat again, this lockdown is not to stop COVID19, but its just to slow it down.

[apelike 10]

I think the whole world will be in recession after this but how bad is unknown. But on the bright side... it now denies all those europhiles the chance to say that any recession in the UK is because of Brexit because as now there is now way to tell.

Edited April 5, 2020 by apelike

[El Cid 220]

3 hours ago, apelike said:

I think the whole world will be in recession after this but how bad is unknown. But on the bright side... it now denies all those europhiles the chance to say that any recession in the UK is because of Brexit because as now there is now way to tell.

Europhiles are brighter than that, in 12 months time we can compare the UK, EU and the economies of Germany.

[Albert the Cat 0]

4 hours ago, apelike said:

I think the whole world will be in recession after this but how bad is unknown. But on the bright side... it now denies all those europhiles the chance to say that any recession in the UK is because of Brexit because as now there is now way to tell.

Will not affect me. My line of work is 100% recession proof. 

 

I have been trying to enlighten the error of a lot Brexiteers but they just do not want to listen. Prepare to reap what you sow. Those lines at the job centre will be laughable. 

[Mister Gee 823]

41 minutes ago, CaptainSwing said:

Only one thing is for certain, and that is that the Free Market (peace be upon it) will not be able to provide a solution.  Even the Financial Times has admitted that.

Speaking of which.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/05/rees-mogg-firm-accused-of-cashing-in-on-coronavirus-crisis

[*_ash_* 88]

9 hours ago, tinfoilhat said:

Entire industries could hit the buffers. I'm guessing when it's all finished half the airlines won't be there anymore. I can cling on for a few months - but then I need work to come in, paying work. Will it? 

Yes.

 

I can't imagine many people after having limited or no income for months, will fancy hopping on a plane full of people, to go to Spain and Italy - for example.

 

And major airlines, just like humble taxi drivers like me, ALL work on a very fine balance between profit and loss. The airline industry will take years to build back to normal, if ever again. Same as me. (until perhaps even vaccine, but can't see how this will work. Wrist straps like Contagion film? Tattoos?)

 

We might end up with government owned airlines, like trains probably he same.

 

It might be good for UK tourism though in later months. Britain has thousands/millions of beautiful places that will become popular / [or again], hopefully.

 

And with the recession hitting, probably a good time for new socialist Labour to get in power (though that's just a prediction, and not a political dig)

 

8 hours ago, El Cid said:

Its a ballance, we dont live in a dictatorship. Will a lockdown do more harm than good after 2/3/4 months, it will stop at some point and there will still be deaths. I will repeat again, this lockdown is not to stop COVID19, but its just to slow it down.

It's obviously a slowdown, I've never spoken to any intelligent person who thinks that 'right, boris said 3 months, so in 3 months things back to normal'

 

This isn't going to just go away. The only reason politicians or news don't say this, is because this is a national crisis, and we can't have rioting. It needs calm messages.

 

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by *_ash_*

[onewheeldave 22]

22 hours ago, *_ash_* said:

... The airline industry will take years to build back to normal, if ever again. .....

Hopefully it will never get back to anywhere near 'normal'. If there is one positive thing about coronavirus it will be the realisation that the skies can be cleared of airplanes, it never was impossible or impractical.

Coronavirus pales into insignificance when compared to climate disaster, and pretty much the best thing to do to try and avert climate disaster is to keep all those airplanes out of the air.

As for coronavirus and any future pandemics, the reason they spread so well is due to people using airlines to get to the other side of the world in a matter of hours, so not getting back to 'normal' with air travel is not only a great strategy for avoiding climate disaster, it is also probably the single best way of minimising future pandemics.

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by onewheeldave

[*_ash_* 88]

15 hours ago, onewheeldave said:

Hopefully it will never get back to anywhere near 'normal'. If there is one positive thing about coronavirus it will be the realisation that the skies can be cleared of airplanes, it never was impossible or impractical.

Coronavirus pales into insignificance when compared to climate disaster, and pretty much the best thing to do to try and avert climate disaster is to keep all those airplanes out of the air.

As for coronavirus and any future pandemics, the reason they spread so well is due to people using airlines to get to the other side of the world in a matter of hours, so not getting back to 'normal' with air travel is not only a great strategy for avoiding climate disaster, it is also probably the single best way of minimising future pandemics.

 

Yes good for climate, and I agree to that. I was thinking more about the financial impact i.e. millions of jobs in the holiday and travel world.

 

Long before this, I've written that domestic holidays would be great for our own country, and we (country) should be spending money doing up seaside places.