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Consequences Of Brexit [Part 9] Read First Post Before Posting

Vaati

Let me make this perfectly clear - any personal attacks will get you a suspension. The moderating team is not going to continually issue warnings. If you cannot remain civil and post within forum rules then do not bother to contribute.

 

In addition to remoaner we are also not going to allow the use of libdums or liebore - if you cannot behave like adults and post without recourse to these childish insults then please refrain from posting. If you have a problem with this then you all know where the helpdesk is. 

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10 minutes ago, makapaka said:

It’s becoming worryingly clear that brexit has created a myriad of problems for us.

 

defence

security 

food

energy

 

and were only just starting.

Hmmm... :huh:


It's good to have problems...


... it keeps people on their toes!

 

There's nowt worse than complacency... :)

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53 minutes ago, makapaka said:

It’s becoming worryingly clear that brexit has created a myriad of problems for us.

 

defence

security 

food

energy

 

and were only just starting.

That's what you want to believe.

 

The truth is we lived in a global economy before Brexit and still live in a global economy after Brexit.  Before Brexit there were security concerns regarding China, Russia and Muslim terrorists and after Brexit there are still security concerns regarding China, Russia and Muslim terrorists.  In recent days there have been reports of a shortage of lorry drivers in Russia and Poland.  Both Russia and Poland haven't recently left the EU.  The biggest threat to food supplies is the shortage of CO2 which has been caused by the big rise in the wholesale price of gas which hasn't got anything to do with Brexit.  And finally the reason why all our lives have been negatively affected over the last 18 months is as a consequence of a once in one hundred year global pandemic which also has nothing to do with Brexit.

Edited by West 77

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2 hours ago, Tony said:

@Carbuncle only this morning, the BBC was reporting that the UK economy will be back to pre-pandemic levels. I missed whose stats they were using but it was probably the ONS or OECD.

So to paraphrase: it's been reported that somebody was predicting that the UK economy will be back to pre-pandemic / pre-Brexit levels at sometime in the future. I believe that a couple of pages back you were claiming Britain was booming. Was that merely your opinion or do you have some facts or data to back it up? A link to a source (preferably not just to the media) would be nice.

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3 minutes ago, Carbuncle said:

So to paraphrase: it's been reported that somebody was predicting that the UK economy will be back to pre-pandemic / pre-Brexit levels at sometime in the future. I believe that a couple of pages back you were claiming Britain was booming. Was that merely your opinion or do you have some facts or data to back it up? A link to a source (preferably not just to the media) would be nice.

You can go and find the numbers for yourself if you care more than me about the half heard item on Today. I read later that it was in fat the OECD predicting that the UK would lead the G7 in growth.

Quote

 

The UK economy will grow the fastest among the group of the world’s richest countries, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The OECD thinks the UK economy will expand 6.7 per cent in 2021, the highest rate of growth among the G7.

 

Reminder; the G7 is the UK, USA, Germany, France, Italy, Japan and Canada.

 

Now you can debate all day long what "booming" is but if you can also read what I actually wrote about "booming" in an exchange about border controls, not a pandemic. It's still very relevant when taking the OECD's data into account.   

On 15/09/2021 at 15:42, Tony said:

This is quite interesting but we need to take a step back and consider what's actually happening here.

 

As you say, the UK's borders for goods are quite porous right now. But what's the upshot of this,? What differences has is made? Why should we care?

 

Border checks seem to be few and far between as they always had been for trade with the rest of the world. ISTR that physical checks of extra-EU goods is around <5% so that container from Malawi has as much chance of being opened and audited as I have of fielding for Wednesday.  I haven't seen the numbers compared to the current imports from the EU but it seems reasonable to assume that they are similar. If anyone has accurate numbers I'd be interested to see. 

 

So if that's the case, what's the actual situation once we strip out the rhetoric? Basically, almost all inward goods from the EU and indeed the World come through on a trust basis because yes, business is essentially above board. It must be a good thing that we assume people are honest. The sky hasn't fallen in. The UK economy is booming under very trying circumstances.

 

So what's the point of the UK<>EU border controls if the EU>UK is working fine? Why shouldn't the UK>EU be dealt with in the same way? What's the EU's problem because if the above is correct it looks like the problem is the EU's protectionist approach to trade politics and it's not about the people who are actually doing business with each other. 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, West 77 said:

That's what you want to believe.

 

The truth is we lived in a global economy before Brexit and still live in a global economy after Brexit.  Before Brexit there were security concerns regarding China, Russia and Muslim terrorists and after Brexit there are still security concerns regarding China, Russia and Muslim terrorists.  In recent days there have been reports of a shortage of lorry drivers in Russia and Poland.  Both Russia and Poland haven't recently left the EU.  The biggest threat to food supplies is the shortage of CO2 which has been caused by the big rise in the wholesale price of gas which hasn't got anything to do with Brexit.  And finally the reason why all our lives have been negatively affected over the last 18 months is as a consequence of a once in one hundred year global pandemic which also has nothing to do with Brexit.

That is true-ish, i.e. save for the deleterious effects of leaving the Internal (EU) energy market (which explain why natural gas is twice as expensive for the UK than for EU27 currently).
 

Where Brexit comes into this CO2 issue, is that you can’t patch the problem short-term with imports from the EU27 anymore.
 

Johnson must have promised a taxpayer-funded bung to CF industries, to get them to reopen their plants so quick.

 

Forecast growth¬†figures¬†are pretty much meaningless still, this shortly ‚Äėafter‚Äô the pandemic, as the @rse fell out of¬†most national economies, EU and¬†not. The UK regrettably suffered the worst economic scarring out of the G7,¬†so superlative growth will be welcome.

Edited by L00b

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9 minutes ago, L00b said:

That is true-ish, i.e. save for the deleterious effects of leaving the Internal (EU) energy market (which explain why natural gas is twice as expensive for the UK than for EU27 currently).
 

Where Brexit comes into this CO2 issue, is that you can’t patch the problem short-term with imports from the EU27 anymore.
 

Johnson must have promised a taxpayer-funded bung to CF industries, to get them to reopen their plants so quick.

 

Forecast growth¬†figures¬†are pretty much meaningless still, this shortly ‚Äėafter‚Äô the pandemic, as the @rse fell out of¬†most national economies, EU and¬†not. The UK regrettably suffered the worst economic scarring out of the G7,¬†so superlative growth will be welcome.

The truth is UK customers were paying far too much for both gas and electricity while we were in the EU and are still paying  far too much for gas and electricity after we left the EU.  The French have been ahead of the game by investing early in Nuclear power stations. Fuel poverty has been an issue for many years and the green energy policy of the current government isn't going to lessen the problem. Regarding the CO2 shortage it's ludicrous the UK are basically relying on one fertiliser manufacture for the supply of the nation's CO2 which hasn't got anything to do with Brexit.

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55 minutes ago, L00b said:

That is true-ish, i.e. save for the deleterious effects of leaving the Internal (EU) energy market (which explain why natural gas is twice as expensive for the UK than for EU27 currently).
 

Where Brexit comes into this CO2 issue, is that you can’t patch the problem short-term with imports from the EU27 anymore.
 

Johnson must have promised a taxpayer-funded bung to CF industries, to get them to reopen their plants so quick.

 

Forecast growth¬†figures¬†are pretty much meaningless still, this shortly ‚Äėafter‚Äô the pandemic, as the @rse fell out of¬†most national economies, EU and¬†not. The UK regrettably suffered the worst economic scarring out of the G7,¬†so superlative growth will be welcome.

It doesn't explain but please have a go at explaining the deleterious effects of leaving because I am actually very interested to hear the argument. Perhaps you could do it as some kind of ration pitched against the deleterious effects of the EU relying on gas supplies from  Gazprom with an explainer about the Kremlin turning the screws to get Nord Stream 2 authorised  and how Germany is going to overcome EU regulations about ownership of both product and means of supply re Nord Stream 2.

 

No doubt we'll agree that it could look very bad for the EU if they change their own laws to allow Germany to start receiving gas from Russia at the same time as EU27's PM's and Presidents attend COP26 to make promises about cutting carbon.

 

The UK has clearly dropped the ball badly by not having enough terawatt hours of stored gas but as the UK only receives a very small amount of gas from the EU  (ISTR that we're about 45% UK gas / 45% Norwegian gas) it's now quite straightforward for the UK to use emergency legislation to license domestic fracking in advance of bringing small pack modular nuclear reactors onto the grid in the next few years to work alongside the world's largest offshore wind matrices. Of course, being out of the EU means that the UK can keep all that extra capacity while the EU27 sit in the dark with the lights off if a murderous dictator happens to feel like it that winter.  I suppose there's always dirty Polish coal to fall back on. 

 

Anyway, I digress, and I hear that Kwasi Kwarteng might have done a deal with Norway to get us over this rough patch so it's hopefully all a bit moot. Tangible benefits and all that., so fingers crossed eh?

 

Looking forward to your explainer. Also your thoughts on the dilemma of Nord Stream 2 and EU regulation, perhaps Russia sanctions too. Cheers :) 

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1 hour ago, Tony said:

now quite straightforward for the UK to use emergency legislation to license domestic fracking in advance of bringing small pack modular nuclear reactors onto the grid in the next few years

Straightforward - really.

 

 

Edited by makapaka

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3 hours ago, Tony said:

Now you can debate all day long what "booming"

Not if you don't say what you mean by booming we can't.

 

The OECD has made a prediction about UK GDP which you seem to regard as data and I regard as wild speculation. If the prediction comes close to being accurate we will still be worse off GDP-wise than before Brexit and the pandemic.

 

To be clear, we are not booming by any reasonable definition: GDP has fallen precipitately.

 

Your argument on border control seems to be a variant of 'if you have lemons then make lemonade'. If you can't manage to do border control just now ... well then, we don't really need to have border control anyway.

 

Your argument on 'difficulties' over natural gas seems to be build up further the lemonade reserves. Who needs gas when we should be building nuclear.

 

Presumably, you will be celebrating in anticipation of (1) the return of delivery boys on bikes (who cares if we're short of lorry drivers?), (2) the contribution to reducing global warming (we're not releasing that CO2 we're not making) and (3) the collective drive against obesity (we didn't need to be eating the missing items from supermarkets). Lemonade for all.

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16 hours ago, Tony said:

It doesn't explain but please have a go at explaining the deleterious effects of leaving because I am actually very interested to hear the argument. Perhaps you could do it as some kind of ration pitched against the deleterious effects of the EU relying on gas supplies from  Gazprom with an explainer about the Kremlin turning the screws to get Nord Stream 2 authorised  and how Germany is going to overcome EU regulations about ownership of both product and means of supply re Nord Stream 2.

 

No doubt we'll agree that it could look very bad for the EU if they change their own laws to allow Germany to start receiving gas from Russia at the same time as EU27's PM's and Presidents attend COP26 to make promises about cutting carbon.

 

The UK has clearly dropped the ball badly by not having enough terawatt hours of stored gas but as the UK only receives a very small amount of gas from the EU  (ISTR that we're about 45% UK gas / 45% Norwegian gas) it's now quite straightforward for the UK to use emergency legislation to license domestic fracking in advance of bringing small pack modular nuclear reactors onto the grid in the next few years to work alongside the world's largest offshore wind matrices. Of course, being out of the EU means that the UK can keep all that extra capacity while the EU27 sit in the dark with the lights off if a murderous dictator happens to feel like it that winter.  I suppose there's always dirty Polish coal to fall back on. 

 

Anyway, I digress, and I hear that Kwasi Kwarteng might have done a deal with Norway to get us over this rough patch so it's hopefully all a bit moot. Tangible benefits and all that., so fingers crossed eh?

 

Looking forward to your explainer. Also your thoughts on the dilemma of Nord Stream 2 and EU regulation, perhaps Russia sanctions too. Cheers :) 

I’ll give your EU/RU relations & Nord Stream 2 point a pass, the Brexited UK has nothing whatsoever to do with these.

 

These deleterious effects (of the UK leaving the IEM)  have been known for 5 years, and are all coming to pass currently, moreover worsened by happenstance (storage sell-off since 2017, as you rightly note; recent Sellindge interconnect fire = French supply to UK interrupted until March ’22 (National Grid estimate); forthcoming Bacton-Zeebrugge interconnect maintenance closure…).

 

It’s a perfect storm situation, as in so many other avenues of socio-economic life (UK exports, logistics supply chains, horeca staffing, etc, etc): long-forecast Brexit consequences, those based on facts rather than hyperbole, are simply coming to pass, one after the other, and some are unexpectedly amplified by Covid mitigation policies of the last 18+ months.

 

These known deleterious effects¬†could have been¬†mitigated with a softer version of Brexit, than the one ‚Äėdone‚Äô by Johnson and Frost (which is still not ‚Äėdone‚Äô at all, of course: a much harder Brexit is still to come, whenever the UK finally starts implementing¬†the TCA in full).
 

But we are where we are, and these deleterious effects can still be mitigated, but your government now has a bit more ground to make up for. Should the UK wish to do so, of course. 

Edited by L00b

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17 hours ago, makapaka said:

Straightforward - really.

 

 

Of course it is straightforward to license fracking with emergency legislation. F'Crissake, they forced you to stay inside your home last year, licencing a few gas wells is the work of a moment.

 

1 hour ago, L00b said:

I’ll give your EU/RU relations & Nord Stream 2 point a pass, the Brexited UK has nothing whatsoever to do with these.

No, don't. Nord Stream 2 and EU/Russia relations are absolutely central.  You wanted to talk about the UK leaving the EU's energy market, so do it. 

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3 hours ago, Tony said:

Of course it is straightforward to license fracking with emergency legislation. F'Crissake, they forced you to stay inside your home last year, licencing a few gas wells is the work of a moment.

They’ve already said it’s not safe to do so. 

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-ends-support-for-fracking

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