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Consequences Of Brexit [Part 9] Read First Post Before Posting

Vaati

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10 hours ago, Obelix said:

It's almost like the Brexiters are just not listening here to what the actuality is. 

I have little doubt that they are. But that reality is irrelevant.

 

If the Brexiteers you mention are the politicians, then these economic consequences count for nothing: the worse they are, the better for their victimhood complex-based politics (excellent article in the Guardian about this, recently...but years after Fintan OToole wrote the definitive book about it (Heroic Failure, worth your time)).

 

If the Brexiteers you mention are the voters, posting in here or not, you're unlikely to  ever get them to admit publicly (...semi-publicly under a Forum alias) that they got conned by Farage, Johnson and co. 5 years ago.

 

So you should not expect any reaction from either type of Brexiteers, as the Digby Jones index continues to chronicle the unfolding of long-forecast Brexit consequences.

 

Nor from the political opposition, which is continuing to give the Tories a full pass over it all, in the mistaken belief that the Tories will wear Brexit at the voting booths in 4 years.

 

That is why Brexit isn't going to get reversed or mitigated in any way, anytime soon and, if Gavin Ester is even half-right in his latest book (How Britain ends), any notions of getting close with the EU again will be by freshly-independent nations that used to form the UK.

Edited by L00b

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Your assessment of nationalism in the UK needs tweaking.

 

Nationalism  occurs in all nations, regions and localities of the UK.

The recent popularity of English nationalism is based around perceived unfairness  of the economic system  in the UK ie "Why are the Scots, Welsh, Irish, immigrants etc treated better than me?"

Modern Nationalism in Wales and Scotland originated from quite unpleasant racist right wing views and in both cases became popular only when the parties moved to the left of centre.

Nationalism in Wales is deeply influenced by far more important issues surrounding language. 

In Scotland, with centuries of civil war forgotten, oil revenue re-kindled  self determination.

In England, Empire, war winning, economic and social dominance, sport, and waves of immigrants establishing their social position, a unique form of nationalism is the norm.

In Northern Ireland...

Along comes Europe and for the first time Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland and regions of England are treated as distinct entities and feel represented within Europe rather in the UK democracy where they are just 'seats' at Westminster and were their interests are only discussed in committees. The English regions are completely ignored with power focused in London.

 

I personally detest 'nationalism',  but in the face of a London version of English nationalism  dominating  the  political, financial and legal institutions of our democracy what choice have they in Wales and Scotland and even a large section of the Unionist community in Northern Ireland.

 

In Northern England we cannot even settle on train journeys to its regional airport.

 

 

Edited by Annie Bynnol

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48 minutes ago, Annie Bynnol said:

Your assessment of nationalism in the UK needs tweaking.

 

(...)

I welcome that tweaking perspective :D (noting that mine wasn't an assessment as such, rather it was agreement with Mr Esler's own assessment).

 

But there is relatively little point to that tweaking, in the context of a Brexit discussion post-01.01.21: whether the UK endures notwithstanding its nationalistic fevers, or eventually fragments into independent constituent nations (or regions, or etc) according to same, only influences the balance of negotiating power in further trade agreement talks with the EU27, likewise in (re-)accession talks (<which was my point above).

 

Beyond that, it's an internal UK issue, as relevant to other EU members states under the UK-EU TCA-based relationship that is now in force, as nationalism(s) in e.g. Russia, Belarus or Morocco.

Edited by L00b

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5 hours ago, Bargepole23 said:

They don't care. They see it as a price worth paying for their "sovereignty".

 

 

In simple terms it is now the sacrifice of market accessibility versus Sovereignty.

The scales may fall from the eyes of some misled Brexit voters but the damage is done.

Frost will undoubtedly continue to pursue the hard line at some cost to various sectors of the economy.

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today i'm wondering how much money we'll have to give Stellantis to keep Vauxhall-Ellesmere-Port open...?

 

once upon a time companies opened factories here because it made financial sense, now we have to bribe them.

 

oh well, consequences...

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27 minutes ago, ads36 said:

today i'm wondering how much money we'll have to give Stellantis to keep Vauxhall-Ellesmere-Port open...?

 

once upon a time companies opened factories here because it made financial sense, now we have to bribe them.

 

oh well, consequences...

Incentives have always been given to companies to attract them to establish businesses.

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49 minutes ago, enntee said:

Incentives have always been given to companies to attract them to establish businesses.

Indeed. The large Nissan plant would not be here otherwise.

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On 26/02/2021 at 10:23, ads36 said:

today i'm wondering how much money we'll have to give Stellantis to keep Vauxhall-Ellesmere-Port open...?

 

once upon a time companies opened factories here because it made financial sense, now we have to bribe them.

 

oh well, consequences...

Will keeping corporation tax low be a factor in keeping businesses happy?

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On 26/02/2021 at 10:23, ads36 said:

today i'm wondering how much money we'll have to give Stellantis to keep Vauxhall-Ellesmere-Port open...?

 

once upon a time companies opened factories here because it made financial sense, now we have to bribe them.

 

oh well, consequences...

What on earth are you talking about "bribe them".  Its simply business.  

 

We are now more than ever before in a global marketplace (with the world trading and bartering with itself long before that phrase existed).  Its basic competition and its fierce.  Incentives, reward and freebies are nothing new. 

 

Do you think retailers are "bribing" their customers when they offer loss leaders or hugely undercut their competitors with block discounting or offer loyalty schemes/privileges/rewards or offer perceived improved reputation or image by choosing their X over somewhere else's Y.

 

Do you think online companies are "bribing" their customers when they offer tax advantages, sign up bonuses, free additional services or aggressive price matching. 

 

Its not rocket science.   Its all about getting X to choose you and yours over everybody else bidding.    Its been happening for decades nee centuries before Brexit and will contine to happen thereafter.    I really dont understand what seemingly desprate "consequences" you were trying to prove.   This is not a new story. 

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7 hours ago, ECCOnoob said:

What on earth are you talking about "bribe them".  Its simply business.  

 

We are now more than ever before in a global marketplace (with the world trading and bartering with itself long before that phrase existed).  Its basic competition and its fierce.  Incentives, reward and freebies are nothing new. 

 

Do you think retailers are "bribing" their customers when they offer loss leaders or hugely undercut their competitors with block discounting or offer loyalty schemes/privileges/rewards or offer perceived improved reputation or image by choosing their X over somewhere else's Y.

 

Do you think online companies are "bribing" their customers when they offer tax advantages, sign up bonuses, free additional services or aggressive price matching. 

 

Its not rocket science.   Its all about getting X to choose you and yours over everybody else bidding.    Its been happening for decades nee centuries before Brexit and will contine to happen thereafter.    I really dont understand what seemingly desprate "consequences" you were trying to prove.   This is not a new story. 

Its not rocket science.

The financial arguement for Brexit was lost a long time ago. There is a financial disadvantage to being outside the EU.

There is an emotional advantage to feeling that we are a free, sovereign, and independant country - Huzzar!

 

All very well, but its only a feeling. 

"We are now more than ever a global marketplace"  and we need all the advantages we can get. The EU gives gave us an advantage.

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Brexit will cost the UK economically, around 4% lost GDP growth in the next decade according to the Bank of England, anyone who thought it would make them rich has truly been misled.

 

However, I also think  part of Brexit was a desire for political change within the UK, especially in the regions.

There is an argument to say this cry for help has been heard with the governments leveling-up agenda.  Understandably there will be scepticism about whether this is delivered but the re-writing of the Treasury investment rules are a major step towards this.


Also the impact of freedom of movement on the lowest 30% of workers wages will start to be reversed once the economy returns to normal times, and I have written on here before about how it is already causing higher wages in part of the industry I work in.

Hopefully it will also lead to better working conditions and more stable contracts for people  once businesses have to compete more for a smaller pool of labour.

 

Other benefits not considered by the BofE forecast but of great  importance to people are things like pressures on vital infrastructure such as schools, hospitals and housing. The UK was on track for what many felt was in-sustainable population growth.

I do get that some of these pressures could have been solved by government but both Labour and the Tory’s failed so Brexit was a way of people making that choice themselves.


There are obviously a whole host of other non-GDP downsides, from loss of FoM to non-tariff barriers, and for some people a loss of identity.

 

Ultimately I think we will end up a bit poorer overall as a nation but perhaps a lot fairer, especially for those towards the bottom of society.

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3 hours ago, Westie1889 said:

Other benefits not considered by the BofE forecast but of great  importance to people are things like pressures on vital infrastructure such as schools, hospitals and housing. The UK was on track for what many felt was in-sustainable population growth.

Even after 2016 we had very high immigration, only COVID can reduce immigration.

Net migration to the UK was estimated to be 270,000 in 2019, down from a peak of 331,000 in the year ending March 2015.

 

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