Consequences Of Brexit [Part 9] Read First Post Before Posting

[Mister M 1,606]

7 minutes ago, West 77 said:

You obviously have an unhealthy interest in David Cameron's phallus otherwise you wouldn't have brought the issue up.  Enough said.

And by the sounds of it you openly support a party whose recent leader has an interest in shoving it in unhealthy places 

Now I wonder what Boris got up to when a member of the Bullingdon club....

[Mister Gee 811]

7 minutes ago, West 77 said:

You obviously have an unhealthy interest in David Cameron's phallus otherwise you wouldn't have brought the issue up.  Enough said.

Oakeshott is famous for co-writing a book for an unelected tax-dodging peer who had a grudge against the then Prime Minister, attention seeking with a totally unsubstantiated story about a pig? 

[Mister M 1,606]

Just now, West 77 said:

 

Excellent team work from the Mister Men who both have an unhealthy interest in pigs. 

In this regard I'm sure I speak for Mister Gee, neither of us have an unhealthy interest in pigs.

Not like Mr Cameron.

No wonder he was known as 'dodgy Dave' 

[Guest sibon]

1 hour ago, West 77 said:

 

Excellent team work from the Mister Men who both have an unhealthy interest in pigs. 

Thanks to our hapless government, there are plenty of dead ones going to waste at the moment.

 

The Bullingdon boys must be distraught .

[geared 302]

Seems like half the country is out demonstrating in support of the EU, so can't very much see that happening.

A while back it was supposed to be Italy, not hearing much about that anymore.

 

All fuss and no substance, they won't leave.

[tzijlstra 11]

56 minutes ago, geared said:

Seems like half the country is out demonstrating in support of the EU, so can't very much see that happening.

A while back it was supposed to be Italy, not hearing much about that anymore.

 

All fuss and no substance, they won't leave.

I'm not so sure about that. PiS was the clear winner in the last elections, the East Polish countryside vote for PiS and other far right parties is holding pretty well. The Polish West and Urbanites are pro EU, and protesting en masse, but that was to be predicted. Duda's popularity can not be underestimated, despite only drawing 51% of the vote. PiS' entire spiel is to 'reclaim Justice' from the EU. 

 

There is actually something to be said for the anger in Eastern Poland, a lot of their young people have moved away, either to Polish cities (which are thriving) or to other EU nations. The brain drain is significant and the whole area is being left behind economically. If you are left behind (or feeling left behind) than entrenchment against the EU is an obvious response and the populists know exactly how to make most of that. 

 

At the same time, the major cities have benefited enormously from inbound investments and the reality is that without the EU, the Polish economy would be more like the Ukraine than what it is now.

 

A Polexit would be dreadful news for Poland and open themselves up to Russian pressure, especially with NATO being in disarray right now. 

[L00b 441]

There’s as much chance of Polexit, as of Frexit or Italexit or (…)

 

The PIS coalition has lost its majority in the lower house, and has a 50% majority in the higher house at best, which is already well-fractured insofar as the constitutional spat causing these ructions is concerned.

 

That constitutional spat was engineered by the Polish PM  to try and refloat his fast-sinking coalition. 
 

Unlike the UK and other large western economies with enough economical bedrock to sustain a long-term decline without too much chaos, Poland is still fully in hock to EU structural grants and FDI for sustaining its economic bootstrapping, wherein Polexit and turning those taps off would precipitate it back to iron curtain-like days within a couple years at the most. Everyone has seen what Brexit did to FDI for the UK, and there’s plenty enough -populists and all- paying attention in Poland, Hungary and the others.

 

Speaking of FDI, that trade war with the EU which Frosty is now pushing for, won’t be helping the UK much either. Nor your food bills 😬

 

 

Edited October 11, 2021 by L00b

[geared 302]

I'm sure the Polish are very aware which side their bread is buttered, there's no upside to them leaving the EU, it'd ruin them and they very well know if.

Doubt even the more fervent populists could find a way to frame it as anything other than a complete disaster.

 

It's funny really, as excess meddling in a countries affairs by the EU was one of the reasons people supported Brexit.  But in cases like this you really hope the EU put the boot in and drag these countries back into line.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, tzijlstra said:

I'm not so sure about that. PiS was the clear winner in the last elections, the East Polish countryside vote for PiS and other far right parties is holding pretty well. The Polish West and Urbanites are pro EU, and protesting en masse, but that was to be predicted. Duda's popularity can not be underestimated, despite only drawing 51% of the vote. PiS' entire spiel is to 'reclaim Justice' from the EU. 

 

There is actually something to be said for the anger in Eastern Poland, a lot of their young people have moved away, either to Polish cities (which are thriving) or to other EU nations. The brain drain is significant and the whole area is being left behind economically. If you are left behind (or feeling left behind) than entrenchment against the EU is an obvious response and the populists know exactly how to make most of that. 

 

At the same time, the major cities have benefited enormously from inbound investments and the reality is that without the EU, the Polish economy would be more like the Ukraine than what it is now.

 

A Polexit would be dreadful news for Poland and open themselves up to Russian pressure, especially with NATO being in disarray right now. 

Move any of Eastern Europe countries out of the EU membership and they are back in 1989. None of those are economically strong enough to make it on their own. That would be suicidal.

[L00b 441]

1 hour ago, geared said:

I'm sure the Polish are very aware which side their bread is buttered, there's no upside to them leaving the EU, it'd ruin them and they very well know if.

Doubt even the more fervent populists could find a way to frame it as anything other than a complete disaster.

 

It's funny really, as excess meddling in a countries affairs by the EU was one of the reasons people supported Brexit.  But in cases like this you really hope the EU put the boot in and drag these countries back into line.

Well, funnily enough, there’s a certain hearing in a certain Court of law today, involving Poland and Hungary, not a million miles away from where I’m sitting right now…in fact about a kilometre or two as the crow flies 😉

 

As for putting the boot in, regrettably Johnson and Frost are about an inch away from stepping on their appendage one time too many. All the signals currently mounting in Brussels, about Frost turning down the EU’s offer about the NIP, is that this is now “it” and, if sanctions come, it won’t be micro-tariffs on this product or that customs schedule line, but the whole TCA in the bin.

Yes, that would basically mean ‘no deal Brexit’ (the TCA is the current ‘Canada plus’ deal). Mad max job 😔

 

Whilst I have my doubts about that scale of outcome, and in any case dearly wish it wouldn’t come to that (for the sake of family, friends and right-thinking people like you in the UK), it really is high time British people took better care of their governance.

 

Because the EU cannot save you from Johnson, Frost, Rees-Mogg & Co. (precisely because the EU never ‘meddled’ in countries affairs, only ever in areas of pooled sovereignty and by common design).

Edited October 11, 2021 by L00b

[Magilla 510]

2 hours ago, L00b said:

 

 

Edited October 11, 2021 by Magilla

[L00b 441]

<not needed after Magilla’s edit>

Edited October 11, 2021 by L00b