Consequences Of Brexit [Part 9] Read First Post Before Posting

[Guest makapaka]

1 hour ago, Tony said:

now quite straightforward for the UK to use emergency legislation to license domestic fracking in advance of bringing small pack modular nuclear reactors onto the grid in the next few years

Straightforward - really.

 

 

Edited September 21, 2021 by makapaka

[Carbuncle 0]

3 hours ago, Tony said:

Now you can debate all day long what "booming"

Not if you don't say what you mean by booming we can't.

 

The OECD has made a prediction about UK GDP which you seem to regard as data and I regard as wild speculation. If the prediction comes close to being accurate we will still be worse off GDP-wise than before Brexit and the pandemic.

 

To be clear, we are not booming by any reasonable definition: GDP has fallen precipitately.

 

Your argument on border control seems to be a variant of 'if you have lemons then make lemonade'. If you can't manage to do border control just now ... well then, we don't really need to have border control anyway.

 

Your argument on 'difficulties' over natural gas seems to be build up further the lemonade reserves. Who needs gas when we should be building nuclear.

 

Presumably, you will be celebrating in anticipation of (1) the return of delivery boys on bikes (who cares if we're short of lorry drivers?), (2) the contribution to reducing global warming (we're not releasing that CO2 we're not making) and (3) the collective drive against obesity (we didn't need to be eating the missing items from supermarkets). Lemonade for all.

[L00b 441]

16 hours ago, Tony said:

It doesn't explain but please have a go at explaining the deleterious effects of leaving because I am actually very interested to hear the argument. Perhaps you could do it as some kind of ration pitched against the deleterious effects of the EU relying on gas supplies from  Gazprom with an explainer about the Kremlin turning the screws to get Nord Stream 2 authorised  and how Germany is going to overcome EU regulations about ownership of both product and means of supply re Nord Stream 2.

 

No doubt we'll agree that it could look very bad for the EU if they change their own laws to allow Germany to start receiving gas from Russia at the same time as EU27's PM's and Presidents attend COP26 to make promises about cutting carbon.

 

The UK has clearly dropped the ball badly by not having enough terawatt hours of stored gas but as the UK only receives a very small amount of gas from the EU  (ISTR that we're about 45% UK gas / 45% Norwegian gas) it's now quite straightforward for the UK to use emergency legislation to license domestic fracking in advance of bringing small pack modular nuclear reactors onto the grid in the next few years to work alongside the world's largest offshore wind matrices. Of course, being out of the EU means that the UK can keep all that extra capacity while the EU27 sit in the dark with the lights off if a murderous dictator happens to feel like it that winter.  I suppose there's always dirty Polish coal to fall back on. 

 

Anyway, I digress, and I hear that Kwasi Kwarteng might have done a deal with Norway to get us over this rough patch so it's hopefully all a bit moot. Tangible benefits and all that., so fingers crossed eh?

 

Looking forward to your explainer. Also your thoughts on the dilemma of Nord Stream 2 and EU regulation, perhaps Russia sanctions too. Cheers  

I’ll give your EU/RU relations & Nord Stream 2 point a pass, the Brexited UK has nothing whatsoever to do with these.

 

These deleterious effects (of the UK leaving the IEM)  have been known for 5 years, and are all coming to pass currently, moreover worsened by happenstance (storage sell-off since 2017, as you rightly note; recent Sellindge interconnect fire = French supply to UK interrupted until March ’22 (National Grid estimate); forthcoming Bacton-Zeebrugge interconnect maintenance closure…).

 

It’s a perfect storm situation, as in so many other avenues of socio-economic life (UK exports, logistics supply chains, horeca staffing, etc, etc): long-forecast Brexit consequences, those based on facts rather than hyperbole, are simply coming to pass, one after the other, and some are unexpectedly amplified by Covid mitigation policies of the last 18+ months.

 

These known deleterious effects could have been mitigated with a softer version of Brexit, than the one ‘done’ by Johnson and Frost (which is still not ‘done’ at all, of course: a much harder Brexit is still to come, whenever the UK finally starts implementing the TCA in full).
 

But we are where we are, and these deleterious effects can still be mitigated, but your government now has a bit more ground to make up for. Should the UK wish to do so, of course. 

Edited September 22, 2021 by L00b

[Tony 10]

17 hours ago, makapaka said:

Straightforward - really.

 

 

Of course it is straightforward to license fracking with emergency legislation. F'Crissake, they forced you to stay inside your home last year, licencing a few gas wells is the work of a moment.

 

1 hour ago, L00b said:

I’ll give your EU/RU relations & Nord Stream 2 point a pass, the Brexited UK has nothing whatsoever to do with these.

No, don't. Nord Stream 2 and EU/Russia relations are absolutely central.  You wanted to talk about the UK leaving the EU's energy market, so do it. 

[Guest makapaka]

3 hours ago, Tony said:

Of course it is straightforward to license fracking with emergency legislation. F'Crissake, they forced you to stay inside your home last year, licencing a few gas wells is the work of a moment.

They’ve already said it’s not safe to do so. 

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-ends-support-for-fracking

[L00b 441]

6 hours ago, Tony said:

(…)

 

No, don't. Nord Stream 2 and EU/Russia relations are absolutely central.  You wanted to talk about the UK leaving the EU's energy market, so do it. 

Nord Stream 2 and EU/Russia relations are certainly relevant to the IEM, I have not suggested any differently.
 

But since the UK has left the IEM, whatever happens with/to the IEM is of no relevance to the UK - and reciprocally.

 

Practically, and pragmatically, the market situation translates as:

 

 

I’ve acknowledged that Brexit is only an aspect of the energy crisis/shock, as it is unfurling in the UK (it is also unfurling most everywhere else, of course).

 

After that, if you’re after a willy-waving contest about the UK’s resilience of energy supply vs that of the EU, I’m not interested: Brexit does not give the UK, or the EU27, any particular “advantage” one over the other, under the energy supply guarantees in the ‘oven ready’ TCA.

Edited September 22, 2021 by L00b

[Tony 10]

@L00b that's electricity.

 

It's

a very good reference and very relevant though. It shows that the price problem is affecting everyone, not just the UK.

 

On the long term picture, if Germany exerts its fiscal muscle over the Euro while enabling NS2 we may we'll see a significant geopolitical shift eastwards to give Russian despots a massive lever over the EU.

[zaci 12]

The price of gas is nothing to do with Brexit, (i voted remain) it's the same reason as to why the price of petrol has increased. If you're going to lose out on the sales of petrol/ gas then it's inevitable there's going to be a price increase. Don't forget hydrogen is going to replace gas in the near future.

[Mr Bloke 1,445]

4 minutes ago, zaci said:

The price of gas is nothing to do with Brexit, (i voted remain) it's the same reason as to why the price of petrol has increased. If you're going to lose out on the sales of petrol/ gas then it's inevitable there's going to be a price increase. Don't forget hydrogen is going to replace gas in the near future.

Hmmm...

... I suppose that's when things will really start rising?

[El Cid 220]

BP has warned it has had to "temporarily" close some of its petrol stations due to a shortage of lorry drivers.

Send in the Army?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58645712

[Guest sibon]

30 minutes ago, West 77 said:

Why have you posted this information on this thread which has nothing to do with the shortage of lorry drivers?

It does you know.

 

All the misdirection in the world won’t change that.

No matter how much bleating we get from leave voters. This is your mess.

[tinfoilhat 11]

34 minutes ago, West 77 said:

Why have you posted this information on this thread which has nothing to do with the shortage of lorry drivers?

I thought you'd be happy, BP closing stations is stopping people's freedom of movement in their cars.