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Consequences Of Brexit [Part 9] Read First Post Before Posting

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1 hour ago, Cyclecar said:

If only they would all WORK TOGETHER. But they never have, and never will. There is a top two in the EU (sounds like the Premier League!) and they have their own agendas. If by working together they finish up as the top two, then that's fine. Any other outcome is unacceptable. Their domestic agenda - especially in France - is paramount. The next round of their elections is uppermost. 

 

We await the German elections, as they could be pivotal. Having expanded the EU to 28, now 27 nations it is impossible for them all to be happy all the time, having to dance to the Franco-German band.. Hence "eurodisobedience" growing Hungary and Poland, who are giving Brussels the finger. 

 

Yes, the UK needs a stable and prosperous EU, but I fear that within a decade it will collapse under its own weight. No doubt the French will blame us.......

 

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Your post is just a load of wishfull thinking, I should really say a load of rubbish.  I suggest you look on the EU website and try and understand what the EU is all about. If you get your information from the english press or even the BBC you are being misinformed.

 

What happens in the general elections of Germany and France is an internal affair of each country, they are both independant nations..

 

What I can tell you is that if the French population had a President of the caliber of Boris Johnson he would have been laid to rest a long time ago.  One of the french speciallities  is that since the french revolution they don't take any crap from the ruling classes.

 

What I hope to see is how wel or badly brexit is going. And not by story telling, but facts.

 

For example I read an article today on the import and export figures of the EU to the UK for the first six months, figures available on the EU websites. Import from the UK down  by 17 procent and  Exports up by six procent. And now you can draw your own conclusion if it is good or bad.  And there are many more statistics that come out that you can compare and then make your mind up wheather it is good or bad.

 

It is better to form an opinion on this basis than the neverending pointing of fingers and one liners which you might have heard on your train journey or watching Mr Brexit on GB News.

 

And as I got up this morning the EU seems to be still stable and we should be able to get to the end of the week without any problems and then we will look what next week brings.

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3 hours ago, West 77 said:

The pandemic has bought the EU several more years.  If the pandemic hadn't happened I doubt the EU would have made it into 2030's in its current form.  The pandemic came too late to delay Brexit any further.  I've no doubt if the pandemic had arrived a year earlier before Boris was Prime Minister the UK would still have not left the EU.

The pandemic did stop our freedom of movement but I don't think it has any effect on the EU,s Shelf life.

And you are correct in saying that by the time it is 2030 that changes will have taken place in the EU. There have always been changes since the beginning.  

 

Talking in hindsight whether you would have left or not is a waste of time. The one good news for brexiteers is that according to the figures of your ONS  1.2 million  and  the figure could be as high as 2 to 2.5, million EU. citicens returned home and did not return. Now that is exactly what a lot of brexiteers voted for, so that must be a plus.

 

Now what confuses me a little is that you have a booming economy with a record number of vancancies, while you have lost a big part of your active workforce. Our economy is getting back to 2019 levels but we are not there yet. There are stil parts of our economy that are sufferring.

 

I am a bit disappointed in your post. I thought we were getting somewhere. You told me in your posting with me that the reason you wanted to leave the EU was because it was becoming to political.  Now I can,t argue with that,  There is a lot of politics involved.

 

Edited by Frans2755
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2 hours ago, Frans2755 said:

Now what confuses me a little is that you have a booming economy with a record number of vancancies, while you have lost a big part of your active workforce. Our economy is getting back to 2019 levels but we are not there yet. There are stil parts of our economy that are sufferring.

 

We do not have a booming economy nor does the EU. Last quarter's GDP was down something like 4% on the equivalent quarter of 2019. In normal times (no pandemic, no Brexit) we might have expected it to be 4 or 5% higher than the equivalent quarter of 2019 so we are 8 or 9% below trend. The EU is doing a little better but not great. There should be some bounce back which the media will describe as growth but we are poorer as a group than we would be in normal times. I have no idea how to split the economic impact on the UK between Brexit and the pandemic.

 

I am getting my data from Trading Economics ( https://tradingeconomics.com ).

Edited by Carbuncle

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@Carbuncle only this morning, the BBC was reporting that the UK economy will be back to pre-pandemic levels. I missed whose stats they were using but it was probably the ONS or OECD. They also noted that the previous OBR predictions were wrong. 

 

There is absolutely no point trying to attribute numbers to either Brexit or the Pandemic or even normal cycles, it is all guesswork used by individuals to bolster their own arguments, entrenched positions and usually their ego. It has been said many times that Brexit is a process, not an event. People should grow up and stop trying to make direct attributions of Brexit to minor economic shifts, especially right now. 

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2 hours ago, Tony said:

@Carbuncle only this morning, the BBC was reporting that the UK economy will be back to pre-pandemic levels. I missed whose stats they were using but it was probably the ONS or OECD. They also noted that the previous OBR predictions were wrong. 

 

There is absolutely no point trying to attribute numbers to either Brexit or the Pandemic or even normal cycles, it is all guesswork used by individuals to bolster their own arguments, entrenched positions and usually their ego. It has been said many times that Brexit is a process, not an event. People should grow up and stop trying to make direct attributions of Brexit to minor economic shifts, especially right now. 

I agree that it is not completely clear but you are kidding yourself if you dont see there is some serious damage being done.

Edited by Frans2755
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Guest makapaka
1 hour ago, Tony said:

@Carbuncle only this morning, the BBC was reporting that the UK economy will be back to pre-pandemic levels. I missed whose stats they were using but it was probably the ONS or OECD. They also noted that the previous OBR predictions were wrong. 

 

There is absolutely no point trying to attribute numbers to either Brexit or the Pandemic or even normal cycles, it is all guesswork used by individuals to bolster their own arguments, entrenched positions and usually their ego. It has been said many times that Brexit is a process, not an event. People should grow up and stop trying to make direct attributions of Brexit to minor economic shifts, especially right now. 

It’s becoming worryingly clear that brexit has created a myriad of problems for us.

 

defence

security 

food

energy

 

and were only just starting.

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10 minutes ago, makapaka said:

It’s becoming worryingly clear that brexit has created a myriad of problems for us.

 

defence

security 

food

energy

 

and were only just starting.

Hmmm... :huh:


It's good to have problems...


... it keeps people on their toes!

 

There's nowt worse than complacency... :)

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2 hours ago, Tony said:

@Carbuncle only this morning, the BBC was reporting that the UK economy will be back to pre-pandemic levels. I missed whose stats they were using but it was probably the ONS or OECD.

So to paraphrase: it's been reported that somebody was predicting that the UK economy will be back to pre-pandemic / pre-Brexit levels at sometime in the future. I believe that a couple of pages back you were claiming Britain was booming. Was that merely your opinion or do you have some facts or data to back it up? A link to a source (preferably not just to the media) would be nice.

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3 minutes ago, Carbuncle said:

So to paraphrase: it's been reported that somebody was predicting that the UK economy will be back to pre-pandemic / pre-Brexit levels at sometime in the future. I believe that a couple of pages back you were claiming Britain was booming. Was that merely your opinion or do you have some facts or data to back it up? A link to a source (preferably not just to the media) would be nice.

You can go and find the numbers for yourself if you care more than me about the half heard item on Today. I read later that it was in fat the OECD predicting that the UK would lead the G7 in growth.

Quote

 

The UK economy will grow the fastest among the group of the world’s richest countries, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The OECD thinks the UK economy will expand 6.7 per cent in 2021, the highest rate of growth among the G7.

 

Reminder; the G7 is the UK, USA, Germany, France, Italy, Japan and Canada.

 

Now you can debate all day long what "booming" is but if you can also read what I actually wrote about "booming" in an exchange about border controls, not a pandemic. It's still very relevant when taking the OECD's data into account.   

On 15/09/2021 at 15:42, Tony said:

This is quite interesting but we need to take a step back and consider what's actually happening here.

 

As you say, the UK's borders for goods are quite porous right now. But what's the upshot of this,? What differences has is made? Why should we care?

 

Border checks seem to be few and far between as they always had been for trade with the rest of the world. ISTR that physical checks of extra-EU goods is around <5% so that container from Malawi has as much chance of being opened and audited as I have of fielding for Wednesday.  I haven't seen the numbers compared to the current imports from the EU but it seems reasonable to assume that they are similar. If anyone has accurate numbers I'd be interested to see. 

 

So if that's the case, what's the actual situation once we strip out the rhetoric? Basically, almost all inward goods from the EU and indeed the World come through on a trust basis because yes, business is essentially above board. It must be a good thing that we assume people are honest. The sky hasn't fallen in. The UK economy is booming under very trying circumstances.

 

So what's the point of the UK<>EU border controls if the EU>UK is working fine? Why shouldn't the UK>EU be dealt with in the same way? What's the EU's problem because if the above is correct it looks like the problem is the EU's protectionist approach to trade politics and it's not about the people who are actually doing business with each other. 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, West 77 said:

That's what you want to believe.

 

The truth is we lived in a global economy before Brexit and still live in a global economy after Brexit.  Before Brexit there were security concerns regarding China, Russia and Muslim terrorists and after Brexit there are still security concerns regarding China, Russia and Muslim terrorists.  In recent days there have been reports of a shortage of lorry drivers in Russia and Poland.  Both Russia and Poland haven't recently left the EU.  The biggest threat to food supplies is the shortage of CO2 which has been caused by the big rise in the wholesale price of gas which hasn't got anything to do with Brexit.  And finally the reason why all our lives have been negatively affected over the last 18 months is as a consequence of a once in one hundred year global pandemic which also has nothing to do with Brexit.

That is true-ish, i.e. save for the deleterious effects of leaving the Internal (EU) energy market (which explain why natural gas is twice as expensive for the UK than for EU27 currently).
 

Where Brexit comes into this CO2 issue, is that you can’t patch the problem short-term with imports from the EU27 anymore.
 

Johnson must have promised a taxpayer-funded bung to CF industries, to get them to reopen their plants so quick.

 

Forecast growth figures are pretty much meaningless still, this shortly ‘after’ the pandemic, as the @rse fell out of most national economies, EU and not. The UK regrettably suffered the worst economic scarring out of the G7, so superlative growth will be welcome.

Edited by L00b

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55 minutes ago, L00b said:

That is true-ish, i.e. save for the deleterious effects of leaving the Internal (EU) energy market (which explain why natural gas is twice as expensive for the UK than for EU27 currently).
 

Where Brexit comes into this CO2 issue, is that you can’t patch the problem short-term with imports from the EU27 anymore.
 

Johnson must have promised a taxpayer-funded bung to CF industries, to get them to reopen their plants so quick.

 

Forecast growth figures are pretty much meaningless still, this shortly ‘after’ the pandemic, as the @rse fell out of most national economies, EU and not. The UK regrettably suffered the worst economic scarring out of the G7, so superlative growth will be welcome.

It doesn't explain but please have a go at explaining the deleterious effects of leaving because I am actually very interested to hear the argument. Perhaps you could do it as some kind of ration pitched against the deleterious effects of the EU relying on gas supplies from  Gazprom with an explainer about the Kremlin turning the screws to get Nord Stream 2 authorised  and how Germany is going to overcome EU regulations about ownership of both product and means of supply re Nord Stream 2.

 

No doubt we'll agree that it could look very bad for the EU if they change their own laws to allow Germany to start receiving gas from Russia at the same time as EU27's PM's and Presidents attend COP26 to make promises about cutting carbon.

 

The UK has clearly dropped the ball badly by not having enough terawatt hours of stored gas but as the UK only receives a very small amount of gas from the EU  (ISTR that we're about 45% UK gas / 45% Norwegian gas) it's now quite straightforward for the UK to use emergency legislation to license domestic fracking in advance of bringing small pack modular nuclear reactors onto the grid in the next few years to work alongside the world's largest offshore wind matrices. Of course, being out of the EU means that the UK can keep all that extra capacity while the EU27 sit in the dark with the lights off if a murderous dictator happens to feel like it that winter.  I suppose there's always dirty Polish coal to fall back on. 

 

Anyway, I digress, and I hear that Kwasi Kwarteng might have done a deal with Norway to get us over this rough patch so it's hopefully all a bit moot. Tangible benefits and all that., so fingers crossed eh?

 

Looking forward to your explainer. Also your thoughts on the dilemma of Nord Stream 2 and EU regulation, perhaps Russia sanctions too. Cheers :) 

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