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Consequences Of Brexit [Part 9] Read First Post Before Posting

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39 minutes ago, the_bloke said:

Europe has been suffering from a shortage of drivers for years. This article is from 2018, before the pandemic.

 

https://www.bifa.org/news/articles/2018/dec/truck-driver-shortage-crisis-now-spreading-across-the-whole-of-europe

It certainly has, and the 20,000+ Brexoded drivers have been a godsend 🤗

 

I’ve mentioned it before: short-term, the core issue is the end of cabotage (by EU27 drivers in the UK) since 01/01/21 because of Brexit.

 

Put simply, that was an overnight loss of logistic capacity within the UK domestic market as a whole, that cannot be replaced, mitigated or substituted, because of the type of Brexit (‘Canada plus’) chosen and implemented by the Johnson government.

 

The shortage of drivers in the UK  is a medium-term issue. You cannot possibly solve it in the coming months, with army logistics (2000 HGV drivers, estimate) and/or tweaking health & safety parameters (mandatory rests, CPC, etc) in driving rules, and/or grandfathering bus drivers and what-have-you. That is why your MSM is only now beginning to mention ‘2 years’ longer of labour shortages to come’.

 

Whether Europe is also suffering from a shortage of drivers, or not, is completely irrelevant: there are no empty supermarket shelves in Europe, and businesses have very little issue shipping goods (food or otherwise) across the EU27, including to/from Ireland, via the new ferry routes.

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11 minutes ago, L00b said:

It certainly has, and the 20,000+ Brexoded drivers have been a godsend 🤗

 

I’ve mentioned it before: short-term, the core issue is the end of cabotage (by EU27 drivers in the UK) since 01/01/21 because of Brexit.

 

Put simply, that was an overnight loss of logistic capacity within the UK domestic market as a whole, that cannot be replaced, mitigated or substituted, because of the type of Brexit (‘Canada plus’) chosen and implemented by the Johnson government.

 

The shortage of drivers in the UK  is a medium-term issue. You cannot possibly solve it in the coming months, with army logistics (2000 HGV drivers, estimate) and/or tweaking health & safety parameters (mandatory rests, CPC, etc) in driving rules, and/or grandfathering bus drivers and what-have-you. That is why your MSM is only now beginning to mention ‘2 years’ longer of labour shortages to come’.

 

Whether Europe is also suffering from a shortage of drivers, or not, is completely irrelevant: there are no empty supermarket shelves in Europe, and businesses have very little issue shipping goods (food or otherwise) across the EU27, including to/from Ireland, via the new ferry routes.

Summary : EU experience nothing bad and UK experience all negative consequences. 

 

Or an even more simplified version of all of Loobs posts past and future:

 

EU good

UK bad

 

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20 minutes ago, L00b said:

Whether Europe is also suffering from a shortage of drivers, or not, is completely irrelevant: there are no empty supermarket shelves in Europe, and businesses have very little issue shipping goods (food or otherwise) across the EU27, including to/from Ireland, via the new ferry routes.

But Europe was suffering from a lack of drivers, so it is relevant - it's context. As has been pointed out, the problem existed before Brexit, so the only point worth making in this thread is that the U.K. itself is suffering from a loss of 20k drivers, the other losses are not related to Brexit or indeed not just a U.K. problem. 

 

https://www.globalcoldchainnews.com/driver-shortage-is-pan-european/

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1 hour ago, the_bloke said:

But Europe was suffering from a lack of drivers, so it is relevant - it's context. As has been pointed out, the problem existed before Brexit, so the only point worth making in this thread is that the U.K. itself is suffering from a loss of 20k drivers, the other losses are not related to Brexit or indeed not just a U.K. problem. 

 

https://www.globalcoldchainnews.com/driver-shortage-is-pan-european/

Much as it did for the UK until 01/01/21, the Single Market still facilitates the leveraging of supply chains across the EU27 with any willing Romanian, Hungarian, Polish, Latvian (etc) HGV drivers and owner-operators, with minimal paperwork and red tape, and without any of the red tape put back in place between the UK as a third country and the EU as of 01/01/21.
 

Put simply, it’s cabotage as usual all across the EU27, with all HGV resources used to the full and with minimal red tape. /EDIT for what I mean in practice: in the EU27, a Romanian HGV has no difficulty picking loads of <anything> <anywhere on/along a route and back again> to keep himself going with minimal downtime over <however long between returns-to-base>. Covid or not, that was also true/also applied the UK until 01/01/21, and UK supply chains had been leveraging it to the max for decades. The UK brexiting outside the Single Market put a legal/regulatory stop to it, besides the fact that UK export loads to the EU27 have been very few and far between since then. But it still runs as before across the EU27. /EDIT.

 

So that shortage of drivers in the EU27 would only have relevance (-for the UK, as regards its domestic haulage capacity) if the UK had not brexited, wherein British supply chains were disrupted only by that shortage of drivers, and were competing with other EU27 supply chains for capacity on an even ‘red tape’ keel, rather than be disrupted by the myriad further factors borne from decoupling the UK economy from the Single Market overnight.

 

British haulage professionals, freight forwarders, customs agents and all sorts of other logistics experts who have been at that particular coalface for years and decades (including pre-Single Market days), had been warning about exactly this supply chain shock/crisis to come in the UK for the last 5 years. They’d been summarily dismissed as ‘Project Fear’ for just as long. Hey-ho.

<shrug>

Edited by L00b

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1 hour ago, Delayed said:

Summary : EU experience nothing bad and UK experience all negative consequences. 

 

Or an even more simplified version of all of Loobs posts past and future:

 

EU good

UK bad

 

You know, I would offer to use shorter words and sentences for you, if only you gave the slightest impression of comprehending complex issues and wanting to engage about them.

 

🙃

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36 minutes ago, L00b said:

You know, I would offer to use shorter words and sentences for you, if only you gave the slightest impression of comprehending complex issues and wanting to engage about them.

 

🙃

No need thanks. I've happily summarised all your posts for everyone going forward.

 

I look forward to the next far reaching consequences that only have negative outcomes for the UK.

 

EU spotlight? Move along, nothing to see here.

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3 hours ago, the_bloke said:

Europe has been suffering from a shortage of drivers for years. This article is from 2018, before the pandemic.

 

https://www.bifa.org/news/articles/2018/dec/truck-driver-shortage-crisis-now-spreading-across-the-whole-of-europe

I am not sure these numbers really represent a genuine shortage. This is also the same problem with the 60 000 number being the '2019 shortfall' in UK drivers.

 

What is being measured is vacancies. Because there is a turnover of drivers, at any given time there are companies looking for drivers and drivers looking for employment. It is therefore natural to have vacancies. Taking a vacancy count and calling it a shortage or shortfall can easily mislead. The idea that "Europe has been suffering from a shortage of drivers for years" is also inherently suspicious. If this were genuinely the case, freight rates should have risen as shippers compete for a limited resource and haulage companies should be prepared to pay more for drivers due to the promise of more profitable business with the net effect that former HGV drivers are tempted back into the industry. Or am I missing something? Apparently, drivers' rates have risen recently so I think the current shortage is real.

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15 minutes ago, Delayed said:

No need thanks. I've happily summarised all your posts for everyone going forward.

 

I look forward to the next far reaching consequences that only have negative outcomes for the UK.

 

EU spotlight? Move along, nothing to see here.

You do? Err, Ok.

 

…Brexit is a bit s**t, really 😑

 

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3 minutes ago, L00b said:

You do? Err, Ok.

 

…Brexit is a bit s**t, really 😑

 

Yes but only for the UK, no one else ;)

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1 hour ago, Delayed said:

Yes but only for the UK, no one else ;)

Well, England and Wales, in a couple years’ time: Sturgeon just came off the pot and declared for holding IndyRef2 by end 2023.

 

https://news.stv.tv/politics/sturgeon-government-plans-to-hold-indyref2-vote-by-end-of-2023?top

 

(another such ‘far-reaching consequence’ with negative outcomes for the UK, I’m afraid)

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1 hour ago, L00b said:

You do? Err, Ok.

 

…Brexit is a bit s**t, really 😑

 

The Conservatives will just relax the rules, so that the water companies can still make ££££££

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21 hours ago, El Cid said:

The Conservatives will just relax the rules, so that the water companies can still make ££££££

“will”? They just have, that was the link.
 

Same cause-and-effect (Brexit-and-consequence) situation, as the government’s recent relaxing of health & safety-based rules for HGV drivers.

 

There are plenty more instances like this, that are boring/less newsworthy (this one is the pointy end of the tiny surfaced bit of the ‘Brexit & chemicals’ iceberg), and still more yet-to-come, as consequences keep arising, rippling and compounding in all sorts of ways, predicted and not.

 

[Some of the ‘Brexit & chemicals’ iceberg was forecast in the government’s Yellowhammer plan…but, ironically, wrongly so: that “relax sewer/water discharge rules in case of chemicals shortage” was contingency-planned for a no deal Brexit, yet we’re seeing it happen notwithstanding the UK/EU deal 😬]

Edited by L00b

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