Consequences Of Brexit [Part 9] Read First Post Before Posting

[tzijlstra 11]

I find the debate whether Brexit has been 'disastrous' or not quite interesting, for obvious reasons. I have to say I have mellowed over the last year in terms of my conviction that it is going to be an utter disaster. 

 

It is really difficult to state what the exact impact is, simply because Covid has just whammied its way into the conversation... in the ongoing debate there are blindspots, which is happening on both sides of the debate by the way and I fully accept that. But stating that it is all fine is too simple an escape from the reality of the impact. 

 

To me the problem is that a lot of the impacts are only affecting individuals and businesses, as such the cumulative weight of the consequences of Brexit is incredibly difficult to describe. 

[Delbow 687]

1 hour ago, Baron99 said:

 

 

But never mind, here's a great opportunity for the UK to sell our award winning wines to the French, to help them through the upcoming months. 

Not at those prices (although it is very good)

[El Cid 214]

3 hours ago, tzijlstra said:

It is really difficult to state what the exact impact is, simply because Covid has just whammied its way into the conversation... in the ongoing debate there are blindspots, which is happening on both sides of the debate by the way and I fully accept that. But stating that it is all fine is too simple an escape from the reality of the impact. 

 

To me the problem is that a lot of the impacts are only affecting individuals and businesses, as such the cumulative weight of the consequences of Brexit is incredibly difficult to describe. 

Do we even measure inflation the same as before?

Prices seem to be rising, yet inflation is hardly moving. we use CPI to measure inflation, but the RPI is generally 1% higher than CPI.

I think its another example of the Government cooking the books.

[Longcol 597]

9 hours ago, Baron99 said:

Time to break out the drinks.  Sadly it doesn't look as though there will be much in way of the French grape juice around in the coming months.

https://www.france24.com/en/video/20210409-most-of-france-s-grape-harvest-destroyed

 

But never mind, here's a great opportunity for the UK to sell our award winning wines to the French, to help them through the upcoming months. 

The vineyards round the Med were largely unaffected and produce many times more bottles than the UK - plus the French drink mainly red and the UK produces mainly white. 

 

Quality UK wine would have to be at least 50% cheaper to compete in France - the biggest enemy to UK wine production is the duty levied by HMG.

[Guest sibon]

9 minutes ago, Longcol said:

The vineyards round the Med were largely unaffected and produce many times more bottles than the UK - plus the French drink mainly red and the UK produces mainly white. 

 

Quality UK wine would have to be at least 50% cheaper to compete in France - the biggest enemy to UK wine production is the duty levied by HMG.

The duty levied is a problem. There is a far greater one though, economies of scale. U.K. vineyards produce a small amount of decent enough wine, but they end up charging £12 for a very average product. I can buy better wine for less in France, including duty. English wine will never become mainstream simply because it is too expensive, in relation to its quality. 

[Longcol 597]

6 minutes ago, sibon said:

The duty levied is a problem. There is a far greater one though, economies of scale. U.K. vineyards produce a small amount of decent enough wine, but they end up charging £12 for a very average product. I can buy better wine for less in France, including duty. English wine will never become mainstream simply because it is too expensive, in relation to its quality. 

Don't think it's all down to scale - nearest vineyards to me - IGP Domme - is half the size of the the largest UK vineyard - Denbies - but still charges half the price.

 

In the dim and distant past I seem to recall Malcolm Gluck in his "Superplonk" column in the Guardian showing the huge differential in taxation - ie you could buy a bottle of French wine in France (including all taxes) for quite a bit less than the tax /duty levied on a similar bottle in the UK , never mind production costs etc.

[Delbow 687]

Where British wine really competes is in the high end sparkling whites, but Champagne accounts for about 1.5 million bottles per year of France's wine output of around 7-8 billion bottles.

[nightrider 13]

Well that didn't take long - less than 4 months after Brexit and the army has been sent back into NI:

 

https://www.cityam.com/northern-ireland-special-forces-deployed-in-belfast-as-riots-continue/

 

Let's hope it has a happier ending than the last time this was thought to be a good idea.

 

 

[Guest sibon]

40 minutes ago, nightrider said:

Well that didn't take long - less than 4 months after Brexit and the army has been sent back into NI:

 

https://www.cityam.com/northern-ireland-special-forces-deployed-in-belfast-as-riots-continue/

 

Let's hope it has a happier ending than the last time this was thought to be a good idea.

 

 

There you go, regurgitating project fear.

 

Nect thing you’ll be telling lies about crippling delays at our borders and fishermen unable to sell their catch.

 

Oh. Hang on...

[Delbow 687]

This is terrible news. It risks undoing the whole peace process (God, let's hope not). I've no confidence in Johnson sorting it out, his primary concern will be avoiding taking any responsibility.

[Guest sibon]

3 minutes ago, Delbow said:

This is terrible news. It risks undoing the whole peace process (God, let's hope not). I've no confidence in Johnson sorting it out, his primary concern will be avoiding taking any responsibility.

There isn’t a way to sort it out. It is an inevitable consequence of Brexit. Just one of the many downsides to a stupid idea.

[Delbow 687]

A friend in Ireland has just told me the the border between NI and the Republic has more crossing points than the Canada/USA border and the EU's eastern border combined. That would seem to make a hard border between the two impossible, so we are stuck with a border in the Irish Sea.