Consequences Of Brexit [Part 9] Read First Post Before Posting

[tzijlstra 11]

I'm well aware that this thread is no longer the hot-bed of debate it once was. And that is probably a good thing? 

 

Yet, in many, many, MANY of my posts in this thread and pre-Brexit-referendum threads did I warn that Brexit would lead to renewal of the Troubles. It's begun and it will not stop. The UK willingly neglected the Irish question and the Good Friday Agreement when it decided to leave the European Union and there are no answers. It won't be long before the first murders start again, it won't be long until campaigns on the UK 'mainland' start again. 

 

Many Brexit voters in this thread openly said 'not to care' about Ireland and Northern Ireland. Those responses have been recorded for posterity, anything to say now to compensate for that sentiment? 

[tzijlstra 11]

6 minutes ago, West 77 said:

The Good Friday Agreement was used by both the remainers and the EU as a weapon to try and keep the UK in the EU.  The Good Friday Agreement needs to be updated as we live in a different World now.  The EU quickly forgot about the Good Friday Agreement when they intended to block covid vaccines from crossing the Irish border into Northern Ireland.  Trouble has started in Northern Ireland during the last week  because no action was taken by the Police after covid rules were ignored during the funeral for a former IRA member.  

Indeed, the EU warned the UK that a hard Brexit would result in the Troubles re-emerging and that the EU preferred a softer Brexit specifically because of NI. That is not using it 'as a weapon', it is being sensible when it comes to discussions. Ireland has repeatedly warned that a Hard Brexit would upset the balance in NI and the EU supports its member state. Wrongfully in the Vaccine debate by the way, no two qualms about admitting that.

 

However, it doesn't matter why the Troubles started again, they have started again. It's a matter of waiting until the IRA retaliates for these attacks or any other 'perceived aggrievance'.

[Magilla 510]

1 hour ago, West 77 said:

The Good Friday Agreement was used by both the remainers and the EU as a weapon to try and keep the UK in the EU.

So where did you envisage the border, that Brexit makes an absolute necessity, would be when you cast your vote?

[Magilla 510]

44 minutes ago, West 77 said:

As I previously stated the Good Friday Agreement needs updating.

To include a border? Because Brexit means there must be one!

 

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Throughout the UK there are CCTV cameras on all the major roads and the same should apply on the Northern Irish border with Ireland.

None of those roads are borders with other trade areas.

 

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Throughout the World borders are monitored using modern day technology.

...and not one of them is a suitable model for NI/RoI, or does what is needed. The technology doesn't exist.

 

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Theresa May put forward a sensible technology solution for the Irish border problem.

No, she didn't! Every technological solution proposed so far involved a significant amount of trust and only dealt with legitimate trade. Every one ignores the efforts of concerted criminal enterprise.

 

As such, May went for a customs union.

 

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I don't believe there isn't a technology solution when the World can create numerous covid vaccines within a year of a pandemic.

There isn't, whether you believe it or not is irrelevant.

 

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The EU were unwilling to seriously look into a technology solution for the Irish border because of their ulterior motives which were to keep the UK in the EU.

Nope, the technology doesn't exist, and what does exist relies on people being honest (legitimate business), if you're a criminal it doesn't catch you!

 

For that, you have to stop and search.

 

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Now that Brexit has happened the EU should stop sulking and behave like big boys and girls and engage in sensible discussions to end all the nonsense about the Irish border situation.

Ahhh, because you got precisely what you were told you would get, it's the EU's fault....

 

...didn't see that one coming!

Edited April 5, 2021 by Magilla

[tzijlstra 11]

7 minutes ago, West 77 said:

As I previously stated the Good Friday Agreement needs updating.  Throughout the UK there are CCTV cameras on all the major roads and the same should apply on the Northern Irish border with Ireland. Throughout the World borders are monitored using modern day technology. Theresa May put forward a sensible technology solution for the Irish border problem. I don't believe there isn't a technology solution when the World can create numerous covid vaccines within a year of a pandemic.  The EU were unwilling to seriously look into a technology solution for the Irish border because of their ulterior motives which were to keep the UK in the EU. Now that Brexit has happened the EU should stop sulking and behave like big boys and girls and engage in sensible discussions to end all the nonsense about the Irish border situation.

It needs updating now, it didn't before Brexit. Brexit was a unilateral decision by the UK so it is the UK who needs to come up with answers. Pointing at the EU and accusing it of 'sulking' is, with all due respect, a diversionary tactic that the UK government and its devote supporters love to use. It is also completely counter productive. 

 

A tech solution to the problem would be great, I am a tech-head and Information Specialist, so I am going to spend some time explaining how this would work, in practice, with modern-day equipment (Gotta love Bank Holidays! Also, I could quite literally write a 500 pager on all the ins and outs, but I will spare you, so this is just headlines in plane language):

 

Input:

 

Every movement across the border gets captured on video camera (CCTV), the vehicle details, contents and occupants get checked via a passive RFID system. For both of these to work properly the vehicle has to cross a narrow-gate barrier at a low speed. 

 

For this to work: Anything going over the border requires an RFID chip in a position that can be read from within a meter outside of the vehicle (this will already be difficult, the working range of passive RFID tends to be much shorter, to counter that active RFID could be used, but then each chip has to have a power source which will just make life a whole lot more complicated). Each occupant needs to have an RFID enabled passport (smart passport) on them. 

 

These narrow-gate barriers need to be placed at EVERY border crossing between NI and ROI. Estimated cost of £250,000/gate to install, 24/7 staffing required, maintenance contracts required. Wiki estimates 300 crossings. 75,000,000 just for install on one side of the border, actually quite cheap!

 

Processing: 

 

This is where the fun starts, each RFID code needs to be aligned to a central database system, probably consisting of three 'buckets' - Persons, Vehicles, Goods. You mandate a 'disc' in the windscreen of each vehicle in ROI/NI and each vehicle coming into either country. These can probably be sold for around £10 including P/P so not the end of the world.

 

People will HAVE to have a smart passport, otherwise they can not cross the border, this will require a change in law, remember when Labour wanted mandatory ID? Yup, that will not go down well, will it? Anyway, the technology exists, at the narrow-gate barrier the occupants all have to have their passport scanned.

 

Goods, this is where the logic argument of a tech solution fails (which the EU knows), everything crossing that border will have to comply with the legislation either side of the border, in theory you can stick a 4 pence RFID chip on each item, M&S sandwich, Home Bargain Kettle, Levi's Jeans, Covid Vaccine... Essentially you are adding a 4p tax to every product crossing the border, some might call it a tariff.

 

Once you have done that, the data of that chip needs to be entered into a database, big data has solutions for this, but we are talking about an epic scale here with a very time-sensitive process involved, after all, you don't want folks sitting at the border whilst this check takes place. This whole system will easily cost billions. Think of the Heathrow luggage handling fiasco in Terminal 5, it uses this technology in a CONTROLLED environment, so not a haphazard, ramshackle collection of vehicles. The chances that this system will work appropriately is pretty much null and void. But, try and install it and the 27 billion spaffed on PPE and Track and Trace will pale in comparison. But it's a price to pay for peace in NI, so let's go with it? I don't think so. Not only that, it will take decades to implement, it does not fix anything in the short term. 

 

Output: 

 

So... you get through the narrow-gate and all of a sudden the system indicates a problem with something that occurred in the process, the police/borderforce pull you to one side and ask to check your vehicle manually. It turns out you haven't filled in the paperwork for that Home Bargain Kettle. It gets seized. Just to have that functionality you will need a legal force active on the borders at all times. 

 

Conclusion: 

 

It's a pipedream far beyond reality. Sorry, not going to happen. Other solutions? 

[Magilla 510]

3 minutes ago, tzijlstra said:

For this to work: Anything going over the border requires an RFID chip in a position that can be read from within a meter outside of the vehicle (this will already be difficult, the working range of passive RFID tends to be much shorter, to counter that active RFID could be used, but then each chip has to have a power source which will just make life a whole lot more complicated). Each occupant needs to have an RFID enabled passport (smart passport) on them.

Indeed, an interesting prospect checking goods that don't have those tags ('cos they're being smuggled) in a windowless, rented van!

 

Also, any such system would have to be proven to work to the international community, or the whole pack of cards falls down and the UK finds itself in litigation at the WTO until it does, before we even get to the complications added by the GFA.

 

[tzijlstra 11]

1 hour ago, West 77 said:

The Good Friday Agreement was never intended to keep any part or all of the UK trapped in the EU. 

 

I never bought the argument that there wasn't a technical solution to the Irish border issue before Brexit was implemented and most certainly don't buy it now.  Where there is a will there is a way.  We heard experts a year ago telling us it would take 10 years to develop a covid vaccine which has been proved wrong.  Any technical solution requires goodwill which the EU seems to lack.  The disgraceful way the EU has behaved regarding covid vaccine has led to more and more people throughout Europe waking up and smelling the coffee about the way the EU is run.  The EU needs to change their attitude  and ways sooner rather than later otherwise the future looks very bleak for them.

The Good Friday Agreement was indeed never intended to keep the UK trapped in the EU, it was intended to bring peace to NI. Brexit supporters scuppered the deal by ignoring the simple fact it wouldn't work with the UK outside of the EU. Here you are, blaming the EU for the UK leaving it. Difficult position for me to have any respect for.

 

I explain to you, in some detail, why the technical solution is not feasible, but you don't 'buy it'. Again, a position that I find difficult to have respect for: It's not like Brexit supporters weren't told that Northern Ireland would be a major headache in the Brexit campaign.

 

You are going to have to accept responsibility at some point as Brexit voter, you are accountable for tackling these challenges.  

[Baron99 779]

39 minutes ago, tzijlstra said:

The Good Friday Agreement was indeed never intended to keep the UK trapped in the EU, it was intended to bring peace to NI. Brexit supporters scuppered the deal by ignoring the simple fact it wouldn't work with the UK outside of the EU. Here you are, blaming the EU for the UK leaving it. Difficult position for me to have any respect for.

 

I explain to you, in some detail, why the technical solution is not feasible, but you don't 'buy it'. Again, a position that I find difficult to have respect for: It's not like Brexit supporters weren't told that Northern Ireland would be a major headache in the Brexit campaign.

 

You are going to have to accept responsibility at some point as Brexit voter, you are accountable for tackling these challenges.  

My bold. 

 

As a Brexit voter, I'll accept responsibility for what is happening in these still early days with the still teething problems & people & businesses still getting to grips with new procedures, (probably not helped with the ongoing pandemic), although we appear to be seeing less & less reporting of businesses having problems, the current N. I. situation being an exception. 

 

As for me & other Brexit voters being accountable for 'Tackling these challenges', I'll delegate that responsibility to the 650 sat in the HoC to who we all contribute a minimum £81,932 per year. 

Edited April 5, 2021 by Baron99

[tzijlstra 11]

13 minutes ago, Baron99 said:

My bold. 

 

As a Brexit voter, I'll accept responsibility for what is happening in these still early days with the still teething problems & people & businesses still getting to grips with new procedures, (probably not helped with the ongoing pandemic), although we appear to be seeing less & less reporting of businesses having problems, the current N. I. situation being an exception. 

 

As for me & other Brexit voters being accountable for 'Tackling these challenges', I'll delegate that responsibility to the 650 sat in the HoC to who we all contribute a minimum £81,932 per year. 

Quite right, you did indeed delegate it to the HoC, but that doesn't absolve you from responsibility. If they screw this up you have a say at the next elections. Make that vote count as much as you made this one count. Also challenge your MPs to come up with solutions, that is how FPTP works.

[tinfoilhat 11]

9 minutes ago, West 77 said:

I'm stating a fact rather than blaming the EU. There is no doubt the EU used the Good Friday Agreement to their advantage in the withdrawal negotiations especially while Theresa May was Prime Minister.  At least you agree the Good Friday Agreement wasn't intended to trap the UK in the EU but there can be no doubt the EU had no  peaceful intentions during the negotiations. I blame the remainers in the UK more than the EU for exploiting the Good Friday Agreement in their failed attempt to prevent Brexit.

 

You haven't explained anything to me . All you have done is recycle old  arguments against a technical solution to the Irish border with a closed mind. 

 

By stating Brexit voters are going  to have to accept responsible for anything makes you part of the problem and not part of the solution. It's not Brexit voters who have been the problem or caused problems.  It's remain voters who have never respected or accepted a democratic choice the majority of voters made on a ballot paper who have always been and still are the problem.

Why are remain voters causing a problem? We haven't had an election for over a year, there's an 80 seat Tory majority, and a cabinet thick with brexiteers. 

 

Anything in the way of brexit is yours and their making only now, you've nobody left to blame if you can't get what you want.

[ads36 214]

Hi, i'm trying to post a parcel to italy, can one of the Leavers tell me how to negotiate the customs forms ?

 

all this extra paperwork was their/your idea.

 

thanks.

 

A.

Edited April 6, 2021 by ads36

[the_bloke 17]

The Good Friday Agreement doesn't say all checks would be removed at the border. It barely mentions the border at all, apart from saying that as part of the agreement the security installations will be removed. Nothing about customs or other regulations.

 

I'll update this as well to be clear that the GFA existed before Schengen became part of the EU laws via the Amsterdam treaty. Before that, any frictionless open borders were agreed between individual countries.

 

The GFA is also an agreement between the UK and Ireland, not the UK and the EU.

Edited April 6, 2021 by the_bloke