Consequences Of Brexit [Part 9] Read First Post Before Posting

[Mister Gee 812]

On 15/02/2021 at 22:52, Mister M said:

I'm sure you've articulated everything that the Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary, Business Secretary, and Secretary for International Trade are secretly thinking.

Raab, Patel, Kwarteng, and Truss, all ardent Brexiteers wrote in 2012 that:

 

"The British are among the worst idlers in the world. We work among the lowest hours, we retire early and our productivity is poor." 

(Britannia Unchained).

 

Of course, as members of H.M. Government, none of the above would dream of saying anything as inflammatory now (though it's not harmed their boss Boris Johnson); especially they probably see farmers and fishermen as natural Tory voters and fellow brexiteers. So they wouldn't want to label them as idle sods.

Thanks for reminding us all about that Mister M. 👍

[Magilla 510]

On 15/02/2021 at 04:44, melthebell said:

Yeah I'm sure people who are starting to lose business now are looking forward to 10 years time 😛

Looks like that includes DUP ministers

 

Diane Dodds, a long-standing Brexiteer, now says she would have no objection to a Swiss style deal, despite such a deal resulting in "the UK slavishly following EU rules":

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/dup-minister-wouldnt-oppose-swiss-style-deal-to-address-ni-protocol-disruption-40101736.html

 

Sounds a lot like a long winded way of saying she got it wrong...

 

[Annie Bynnol 612]

Never expected this. My bulb orders have been cancelled.

My Dutch bulb supplier has cancelled my (insignificant )bulb orders.

They cannot guarantee delivery and they have decided to ignore the UK market until our Government is able to come up with new import/export and bio-safety rules. 

More seriously they are ending their UK growers contracts as the produce they import are only profitable as 'backloads' and contracting EU growers to fill the gap -permanently. 

They have already ended their UK driver contracts and are using DHL  which would cost significantly more to UK customers.

 

[the_bloke 17]

On 06/02/2021 at 23:38, RJRB said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/06/fury-at-gove-as-exports-to-eu-slashed-by-68-since-brexit

 

This appears to be one of the the teething problems that Gove warned us about,but it seems that he has done little to prepare for the predicted issues,and is not responding to the real concerns of exporters and hauliers.

68% claim starting to look flaky.

 

https://fullfact.org/economy/eu-exports-january-2021/

[sadbrewer 20]

17 hours ago, the_bloke said:

68% claim starting to look flaky.

 

https://fullfact.org/economy/eu-exports-january-2021/

Disingenuous might be a better word.

[tinfoilhat 11]

It's a head scratcher that's for sure. So many companies not sending goods across - whole industries in some cases - yet at first glance the numbers aren't that different. Who is doing well then?

[andyofborg 11]

36 minutes ago, sadbrewer said:

Disingenuous might be a better word.

perhaps if we had a better understanding of what 100% represented then we'd know whether 68% was good bad or meh!

[andyofborg 11]

2 minutes ago, tinfoilhat said:

It's a head scratcher that's for sure. So many companies not sending goods across - whole industries in some cases - yet at first glance the numbers aren't that different. Who is doing well then?

Presumably, there will be EU based organisations setting up GB distrubution centers in the same way UK ones are setting up EU based ones. These will need to be stocked so that may explain some of the flow.  

 

Are we confident that, especially road freight, is flowing both ways and one truck isn't going empty one way?

 

You can't rebuild integrated supply chains overnight, we may get a better understanding of the situation in three or four months when the pre-brexit stockpiles have been used and the supply chains have had chance to adjust. 

[Delbow 691]

16 minutes ago, andyofborg said:

Presumably, there will be EU based organisations setting up GB distrubution centers in the same way UK ones are setting up EU based ones. These will need to be stocked so that may explain some of the flow.  

 

Are we confident that, especially road freight, is flowing both ways and one truck isn't going empty one way?

 

You can't rebuild integrated supply chains overnight, we may get a better understanding of the situation in three or four months when the pre-brexit stockpiles have been used and the supply chains have had chance to adjust. 

There is evidence of trucks coming back into the UK empty. I was reading about Holyhead, where freight is markedly down because trucks heading between Ireland and the EU can no longer carry a return cargo from the EU to the UK, so are bypassing Holyhead and going directly between Cork and France instead.

[L00b 441]

1 hour ago, andyofborg said:

perhaps if we had a better understanding of what 100% represented then we'd know whether 68% was good bad or meh!

Full Fact's page is not clear on that particular issue.

 

Note how 'vehicle' is missing from the second half of the sentence which defines indicating what this 100% is:

 

Quote

These show that in January 2021, the total number of outbound “roll-on roll-off” freight vehicles was at 73% of the January 2020 level, catching up towards the end of the month, and from 1 to 11 February, outbound roll-on roll-off freight was at 98% of 2020 levels.

 

Then  note the explanatory note at the bottom:

 

Quote

This article has been corrected to include details on the increase in the number of empty outbound HGVs at the beginning of the year, to provide more context around the Cabinet Office’s 73% figure.

 

"Freight" is not the same as "vehicles", vehicles carry the freight. So the 100% is either the total number of outbound vehicles, or the total number (volume?) of freight. It cannot be both.

 

Beyond that, whether the RHA's 68% is accurate or flaky or  <...> is just some vacuous argument over statistics. The take-away point remains the same: UK exports, being goods leaving the UK for the EU (as opposed to lorries carrying them, or not carrying anything)  are well down.

 

There's little to argue about that fact, nor much point to arguing about it: it is what it is, namely the shock of transitioning to third party country status at extremely short notice and with insufficient preparations.

 

The sooner UK exporters and UK freight and customs services get up to speed on the new "third party country" normal, the sooner this systemic shock should dissipate.

 

That should then leave normal market competition as the deciding factor, i.e. whether EU27 importers continue (/resume)  to import from the UK with extra customs red tape and costs, or source an alternative in the EU27 or from elsewhere.

Edited February 21, 2021 by L00b

[L00b 441]

1 hour ago, andyofborg said:

Presumably, there will be EU based organisations setting up GB distrubution centers in the same way UK ones are setting up EU based ones. These will need to be stocked so that may explain some of the flow.  

 

Are we confident that, especially road freight, is flowing both ways and one truck isn't going empty one way?

 

You can't rebuild integrated supply chains overnight, we may get a better understanding of the situation in three or four months when the pre-brexit stockpiles have been used and the supply chains have had chance to adjust. 

The UK is currently waving through anything and everything coming in, because its customs agents and procedures are not ready to fully process inbound freight.

 

That is normal (agreed with the EU27 as part of the TCA) and due to end by 1 July as the UK gets up to speed.

 

The reason why truck are returning empty, is because the EU27 is not waving through anything and everything arriving from the UK. The lack of preparation on the UK side has resulted in so much freight getting stopped and turned around (especially because lorries include consignments from different exporters with respective customs decs/forms for each individual load, and 1 wrong form for 1 load means the whole artic gets stopped, even if everything is fine for the other loads), that hauliers are not accepting UK exporters' orders until and unless every last form is checked and correct, and they can fill an artic with enough correct loads, and it makes economical sense to do so from a logistical point of view.

 

The reason why the EU27 is not waving through anything and everything, is because it does not want to see trade disputes arising with other countries at the WTO under the MFN rules (under the MFN rules, if the EU27 waved everything from the UK through, it would have to do it for everyone else).

 

All this was previously long-explained and debated ad nauseam in previous iterations of the "Brexit consequences" thread, there is nothing remotely surprising or unexpected about any of it.

Edited February 21, 2021 by L00b

[Obelix 11]

On 21/02/2021 at 13:01, L00b said:

The UK is currently waving through anything and everything coming in, because its customs agents and procedures are not ready to fully process inbound freight.

 

That is normal (agreed with the EU27 as part of the TCA) and due to end by 1 July as the UK gets up to speed.

 

The reason why truck are returning empty, is because the EU27 is not waving through anything and everything arriving from the UK. The lack of preparation on the UK side has resulted in so much freight getting stopped and turned around (especially because lorries include consignments from different exporters with respective customs decs/forms for each individual load, and 1 wrong form for 1 load means the whole artic gets stopped, even if everything is fine for the other loads), that hauliers are not accepting UK exporters' orders until and unless every last form is checked and correct, and they can fill an artic with enough correct loads, and it makes economical sense to do so from a logistical point of view.

 

The reason why the EU27 is not waving through anything and everything, is because it does not want to see trade disputes arising with other countries at the WTO under the MFN rules (under the MFN rules, if the EU27 waved everything from the UK through, it would have to do it for everyone else).

 

All this was previously long-explained and debated ad nauseam in previous iterations of the "Brexit consequences" thread, there is nothing remotely surprising or unexpected about any of it.

It's almost like the Brexiters are just not listening here to what the actuality is. Mind you there has been a good five years of that so far...

I wanted some 725 making up for a small project - needs a custom forging made and usually I'd go to a couple of places in Sheffield. Not a big order not even for them but worthwhile enough that they would be happy to take the order.

I got it from Hitatchi this time.  It's far easier, and way less aggravation to get it from Japan to Italy than from UK to Italy these days. Even though the base cost was a fair bit higher, still worth doing so...