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Scotland And Independence.

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43 minutes ago, West 77 said:

The huge success of the UK covid -19 vaccine program alone is a good reason why Scottish voters would be foolish to vote for independence in the unlikely event the UK Government grants them another independence referendum anytime soon.

According to you, that we'd left was why the program was a success :loopy:

 

There's no reason why Scottish voters shouldn't think that going it alone could have given them even better outcomes!

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14 hours ago, West 77 said:

I can't see how an independent Scotland could have the same resources available to them as the MHRA.   However, the SNP don't want to go it alone though. The SNP want an independent Scotland to be part of the EU which can never be guaranteed. Scottish voters will never be foolish enough to risk be neither a member of the UK and the EU.

Scotland’s EU membership can be as “guaranteed”, as Scotland leaving the UK: if that is what a majority of the Scottish people vote for, that is what eventually happens.
 

Exactly like a majority of English people voted for the UK to leave the EU, and eventually it happened.

 

As an EU member state, Scotland would enjoy the resources of the EMA.

 

There is a lot of goodwill in the EU for the Scots joining after gaining their independence. Even a pre-emptive “we’re good with it” from Spain already on record (...were people minded to bring up Catalonia yet again).

Edited by L00b

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2 hours ago, L00b said:

Scotland’s EU membership can be as “guaranteed”, as Scotland leaving the UK: if that is what a majority of the Scottish people vote for, that is what eventually happens.
 

Exactly like a majority of English people voted for the UK to leave the EU, and eventually it happened.

 

As an EU member state, Scotland would enjoy the resources of the EMA.

 

There is a lot of goodwill in the EU for the Scots joining after gaining their independence. Even a pre-emptive “we’re good with it” from Spain already on record (...were people minded to bring up Catalonia yet again).

Can we take it that the EU inform you personally of any countries chances of joining?

Did they notify you of this by letter?

You have no more knowledge than anyone else who would be admitted and there are many major problems to sort out before Europe could even vote on this.

Europe's track record speed-wise for getting things done are are also discouraging as witness the vaccine rollout.

Everyone who is peeved at the UK leaving Europe, wants to have Scotland leave the UK as a punishment but that doesn't mean it will be in Scotland's best interests.

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1 hour ago, Organgrinder said:

Did they notify you of this by letter?

You have no more knowledge than anyone else who would be admitted and there are many major problems to sort out before Europe could even vote on this.

Europe's track record speed-wise for getting things done are are also discouraging as witness the vaccine rollout.

Everyone who is peeved at the UK leaving Europe, wants to have Scotland leave the UK as a punishment but that doesn't mean it will be in Scotland's best interests.

No, you can take it that I take my news and opinion pieces regularly, from across Europe, in several languages.


Going back several years, as well: the topic of an independent Scotland acceding to EU membership has been discussed by politicians at length across the EU for the past 7 or 8 years.

 

* at the time of the 1st Indyref in 2014,

* then again throughout the Brexit campaign from late 2015 (“material change in circumstances” is the expression to look for),

* then again following the 2016 EUref as Scotland had voted significantly in favour of remain (now an actual “material change”)

* then again when Catalonia was making a separatist move in late 2017 due to the obvious parallel (did it stay in the EU if it became independent? if not, could it rejoin and how? Etc.)

* and ever since, as polls continue to show ever more support for independence in Scotland, never less so than since January (those fishermen have been throwing an awful lot of noise).


Get ready to hear about it still more, on the run up to the Scottish Parliament elections in 2 months.


Europe moves as fast or slow as circumstances warrant. You’ve shown me that vaccine rollout, I’m raising you the EU withdrawal of its intention of notification about breaching Art.16 TCA within hours of disclosing that intention, and the start of proceedings against the UK within days of the UK actually breaching Art.16 TCA for the second time (do we count “doing nothing about the first breach” as the EU being slow, or can we ascribe it to tolerance?)

 

I’m not peeved at the UK leaving Europe. I’m long past caring (you really should be able to spot the difference by now). Nor do I wish Scotland to leave the UK as ‘punishment’.

 

I’m simply OK with people’s right to self-determination, and that cuts both ways: OK with the English people to self-determine to leave the EU, OK with the Scottish people to self-determine to leave the UK. Likewise the Welsh people, Norn’Irish people, Catalonian people, Corsican people (etc)

 

I’m not sure what your problem with that notion is, tbh. But clearly, it looks like you have one with it?

Edited by L00b

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He will split the vote and let in another party. He is another Nigel Farage.

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I’ve got a feeling Salmond’s new party won’t make much difference to the the SNP.  Can’t see many women voting for him. It wouldn’t surprise me if another woman comes forward before the election making a complaint against him.  


However I would like to see Sturgeon lose votes so I hope I’m wrong.

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13 hours ago, West 77 said:

He's no Nigel Farage because Nigel Farage is a winner and  achieved his aim of the UK leaving the EU.   Alex Salmond has more in common with the loser Robert Kilroy Silk who launched a new party called Veritas.  Even with the help of Joan Collins the Veritas party didn't last long.

He took the SNP  to a majority in the scottish parliament something the method of electing them was designed to make difficult. He might not have got the ultimate win of independence but they are getting closer and he's the one who took the first, biggest step. 

 

If he's started his new party out of spite and revenge and both parties disolve into bitterness and rancour then it will probably fail and damage the cause of independence. If the two parties can, even informally, work together  they could start to appeal to slightly different people and widen the appeal of independence.

 

If both parties can make a success of this then you have an independence supporting  government party and opposition party that would be a major plus in a post-independence Scotland. 

 

If that happens then it's going to force the other parties into supporting a more federalist solution and that will feed back into the English and Welsh parties.Firstly Labour and the Lib Dems and eventually even the Conservatives will have to change. 

 

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Strange how many people there are out there who want self determination when it's us leaving the EU but not when it's the Scots leaving the union. Personally I didn't want the one and don't want the other. What this world needs to try and deal with the problems here now, and those coming down the line, are fewer borders, not more.

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20 minutes ago, Shreddie said:

Strange how many people there are out there who want self determination when it's us leaving the EU but not when it's the Scots leaving the union. Personally I didn't want the one and don't want the other. What this world needs to try and deal with the problems here now, and those coming down the line, are fewer borders, not more.

I don't think that is very true though as according to YouGov only around 46% of the English and Welsh wish Scotland to remain part of the UK and around 34% say it's up to Scotland to decide.

 

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/09/07/how-do-english-and-welsh-people-feel-about-scotlan

 

Don't forget the EU referendum was for the whole of the UK whereas any Scottish one will be for Scotland alone.

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19 hours ago, West 77 said:

It makes no difference how many pro independence parties get seats in the Scottish parliament because they will not get another referendum anytime soon while the Tories have a big majority in the Westminster parliament.

This notion is purely a result of your naivety, it's not a workable/viable plan of action... and Westminster knows it.

 

Action along those lines would simply accelerate/provoke a break-up, more than prevent it.

 

If the SNP (or any independence party) wins power on the back of a promise to hold a referendum, there *will* be a referendum!

 

Whether independence would prevail is another story.

 

That you, of all people, should be suggesting it's OK for Scotland to be kept forever in an arrangement, despite it's people giving a clear indication they wish decide whether to end it, simply beggars belief... it would be tantamount to the UK being denied the ability to Brexit, and we all know how you would feel about that! :loopy:

Edited by Magilla

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24 minutes ago, West 77 said:

You seem to have forgotten Scotland had a once in generation independence referendum election in 2014...

The "No" camp in the 2014 referendum campaigned on a promise that voting no would be the only way to *guarantee* Scotlands continued EU membership.

 

"Once in a generation" is only reasonable if there is no material change in the circumstances that prevailed.

 

Brexit is a *massive* change in those circumstances!

 

As such the case for another referendum, should the Scottish people declare their desire for one, is perfectly legitimate.

 

Edited by Magilla

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