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General Election 2019 - Results Thread.

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2 hours ago, the_bloke said:

Works fine in Northern Ireland. 

Unlike the Assembly!

 

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20 hours ago, melthebell said:

So Boris now wants voters to use photo ID

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-queens-speech-voter-id-polling-station-a9253386.html

 

I dont drive or go abroad so have neither a driving license, or a passport, Is he taking action on an imaginary problem like has been levelled? 

Photo ID requirements are one way in which the Republicans in the USA try to suppress the Democrat vote (along with gerrymandering, disenfranchising former criminals, and closing down polling stations or moving them to inaccessible locations, etc.).

 

Whether the photo ID requirement works in this way is still under debate, but it seems to be well established that voter suppression is the intention.  [The stated intention is to protect elections from in-person voter fraud, but as you say that's an imaginary problem, the rate being fewer than 31 cases per billion votes cast.]

Edited by CaptainSwing

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5 minutes ago, CaptainSwing said:

Photo ID requirements are one way in which the Republicans in the USA try to suppress the Democrat vote (along with gerrymandering, disenfranchising former criminals, and closing down polling stations or moving them to inaccessible locations, etc.).

 

Whether the photo ID requirement works in this way is still under debate, but it seems to be well established that voter suppression is the intention.  [The stated intention is to protect elections from in-person voter fraud, but as you say that's an imaginary problem, the rate being fewer than 31 cases per billion votes cast.]

ah, another way we are following in the footsteps of the mighty US of A then?

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Before the election I went on about how the anti-Tory parties needed to form an electoral pact if they were to collectively stand a chance.  I've calculated what would have happened if all Labour/Lib Dem/Green/SNP/Plaid voters had voted for the same party in each constituency, and all Brexit Party voters had voted Tory.  I'm aware that this isn't necessarily how people would have voted if that had been the actual choice, and I haven't tried to take account of fringe parties or independents, but I think it's interesting all the same.

 

If I've got my sums right, the Tories would have won 326 seats instead of 365, giving them a majority of 2 instead of 80.  They'd have won 13 more Labour seats, all but one of them (Dagenham) in the north of England, 6 of them in the vicinity of Sheffield, including Barnsley East and Central, where the Brexit Party outpolled the Tories.

 

But they'd have lost 52 other seats all over the country, including 5 of their 6 seats in Scotland.

 

Data here, in case anyone wants to check the calculations:

 

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8749

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I keep seeing and hearing Lib Dem supporting friends bemoaning the FPTP system and proposing PR instead. This makes sense for the Lib Dems, as it meant in 2019 they would actually have won 70 seats instead of 11 and I can understand their argument. I then point out using the same system the Brexit Party would have got 10 seats instead of none and they seem to go a bit quiet.

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2 hours ago, CaptainSwing said:

Before the election I went on about how the anti-Tory parties needed to form an electoral pact if they were to collectively stand a chance.

An electoral pact works both ways. What you actually advocated was that supporters of other parties should vote Labour. You made no suggestion that Labour supporters should vote for other parties if they were more likely to be successful. It's no wonder that people didn't pay it much attention.

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2 hours ago, the_bloke said:

I keep seeing and hearing Lib Dem supporting friends bemoaning the FPTP system and proposing PR instead. This makes sense for the Lib Dems, as it meant in 2019 they would actually have won 70 seats instead of 11 and I can understand their argument. I then point out using the same system the Brexit Party would have got 10 seats instead of none and they seem to go a bit quiet.

Lib Dem supporters I know are in favour of PR despite knowing the Brexit party would benefit from it. Don't forget, it would mean Farage would have to face some accountability as he would have a voting record in parliament (people ignored what he actually voted for in the EU). Both Labour and the Conservatives are guilty of taking their supporters in their own safe constituencies for granted and ignoring the needs of those in other parties' safe seats. PR would at least force them to fight over every vote.

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2 hours ago, altus said:

An electoral pact works both ways. What you actually advocated was that supporters of other parties should vote Labour. You made no suggestion that Labour supporters should vote for other parties if they were more likely to be successful. It's no wonder that people didn't pay it much attention.

Yes, it would have had to cut both ways.  Of the 47 seats in England and Wales that "would have" been won by the opposition under my scenario, the Lib Dems secured more votes than Labour in 17, all but two of these being in the south and west of England, the exceptions being Cheadle and Hazel Grove.  Labour had the bigger vote in the other 30, which were scattered across England and Wales.

Edited by CaptainSwing
south and west, not east

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1 hour ago, altus said:

Lib Dem supporters I know are in favour of PR despite knowing the Brexit party would benefit from it. Don't forget, it would mean Farage would have to face some accountability as he would have a voting record in parliament (people ignored what he actually voted for in the EU). Both Labour and the Conservatives are guilty of taking their supporters in their own safe constituencies for granted and ignoring the needs of those in other parties' safe seats. PR would at least force them to fight over every vote.

I worked out some PR figures last Monday - see post #215.

 

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On 21/12/2019 at 20:41, altus said:

Lib Dem supporters I know are in favour of PR despite knowing the Brexit party would benefit from it. Don't forget, it would mean Farage would have to face some accountability as he would have a voting record in parliament (people ignored what he actually voted for in the EU). Both Labour and the Conservatives are guilty of taking their supporters in their own safe constituencies for granted and ignoring the needs of those in other parties' safe seats. PR would at least force them to fight over every vote.

Lib Dems were always supporters of PR and Clegg was as well. Unfortunately they lost their chance when the coalition agreed to have a referendum on the AV vote instead.

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On 17/12/2019 at 15:12, West 77 said:

The BBC had a film crew in a Maltby charity shop on Friday morning and everyone they interviewed had voted Tory.  Their former MP was Caroline Flint who I think is the best female to lead the Labour Party.  Caroline Flint is the only former Labour MP I have sympathy for who lost their seat.

 

The Labour party could do worse than choosing Stephen Kinnock as their next leader.

What about Dennis Skinner? He designated his life to helping folk in Bolsover, he even gave up his wages for miners wife fund during strikes, and the folk he'd represented for decades savagely  betrayed him.

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West 77 is wrong with his statement that Caroline Flint was the MP in Maltby. It was Sir Kevin Barron who retired after representing Rother Valley for 36 years.

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