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Iran Holds The Cards

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Obviously I mean the government of Iran, not the Iranian people, who hold very few cards.

 

Of course Iran was behind the attacks on the Aramco refineries in Saudi Arabia, I should imagine very few people believe otherwise. I think it shows the strength of their position and perhaps explains why, despite all the tough talk, the US govt doesn't really want a war with them. Imagine the economic impact of full scale bombing of Saudi oil refineries, which can be done relatively cheaply.

 

I have to wonder whether this realisation is why Trump was persuaded to get rid of John Bolton (he's too thick to have thought of it himself). Bolton was mad keen for war with Iran but I suspect some in the White House didn't fancy the idea of oil at $150+ a barrel. It seems notable that this latest assertion of conventional military power from Iran comes very soon after Bolton's exit.

 

Of course, Trump has committed himself to fossil fuels and to backing the Saudi regime, even though they are as bad as the Iranian regime, so he's put himself properly in a corner. It seems US foreign policy is intent on not learning from the past. Why not invest massively in renewables and have done with all this?

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I think it's also a realisation that the western public in general are kinda sick of going to war in the middle east.

 

The smart move would be to let the Saudi's do the heavy lifting and sit back selling them the tools for the job.

The two countries have been at each others throats for ages now, might just be time to let them have at it and settle the score.

Edited by geared

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I thought so far there was no evidence that Iran were behind the attack.

 

Didn't the Houthi rebels in Yemen claim to have done it.

 

Lets not forget what led to the Iraq war.

 

Edited by Mr Fisk

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The Houthi insurgents are widely believed to be Iran's proxy. They are a largely Shia group, and although the conflict isn't a simplistic Shia vs Sunni conflict, it is a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran does love a proxy war.

 

I'm not sure the US wants a full escalation of direct conflict. Even if they could predict the outcome reliably, it would have to be over quickly enough and the oil infrastructure rebuilt quickly enough to outweigh the shorter term huge increase in oil price. The US's last oil war resulted in Syria's oil being taken offline for a long time and the whole region is unstable, in no small part due to US policy over decades, so they can't reliably predict the outcome.

Edited by TeaFan

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54 minutes ago, TeaFan said:

I'm not sure the US wants a full escalation of direct conflict. 

Definitely not.

 

1. They would get their asses wooped.

 

2. Russia backs Iran and Trump can’t go up against Putin, which is why I suspect Bolton was sacked last week.

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The Iranian people need to somehow rise up and remove the regime.  Put a stable party in charge who will stop faffing with nuclear stuff. Then sanctions will be lifted and everyone is happy. Until the next lot of religious nutters emerge.

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Maybe Trump and the Ayatollah should mud wrestle, Frankie Goes to Hollywood style. 😁

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, lil-minx92 said:

Im not sure Id know who to root for!

A score draw where neither participant could be resuscitated after two simultaneous KO blows! 😉 

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20 minutes ago, lil-minx92 said:

Im not sure Id know who to root for!

Trump has a weight advantage - although he'd probably deny it.

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Of course the elephant in the room is that Trump has more in common with Rouhani than he does with you and I.

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He might be better mates with Putin as well.  In fact that makes a half convincing conspiracy theory.

 

Putin and Trump collude to back opposite sides in a conflict, both providing arms, vehicles and munitions, both countries benefiting from massive arms sales.

 

Edited by geared

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