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Consequences Of Brexit [Part 8] Read First Post Before Posting

Groose

Mod Note: As we are getting rather tired of seeing reports about this. The use of the word Remoaners  is to cease. Either posts like adults, or don't post at all. The mod warnings have been clear.

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mort

In addition to remoaner we are also not going to allow the use of libdums or liebore - if you cannot behave like adults and post without recourse to these childish insults then please refrain from posting. If you have a problem with this then you all know where the helpdesk is. 

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4 hours ago, Robin-H said:

I believe the report can be downloaded (and is also summarised) here. 

 

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/01/20/weo-update-january2020

 

Here is also an interesting article about the reliability of IMF forecasts https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-imf-forecasts/ which a nifty chart that shows how off (or on) their forecasts have been in the past. 

Many thanks for your trouble :) 

 

Believe it or not, I typed a 10-minutes considered reply, but my (ancient) iPad ate it (b&@£tard decided to reload the webpage out of the blue), so abridged version now, and I'll expand further with ad hoc edits:

 

1st link: IMF forecast for UK is reasonable, so long as underpinning assumptions hold true (orderly exit followed by new relationship across 2020/2021). If problems in either or both = forecast no longer valid.

 

That 'new relationship' is not defined with any precision that I could see, however, so there seems to be IMF fudging there. The IMF must be holding for the UK to concede EU alignment (the option least disruptive to trade), because if it's a bare-bones FTA by end Dec.20 instead, there's just no way the UK can expect to grow faster than e.g. France, or even the Eurozone, in 2021. Germany, that is a whole different kettle of fish, their economy and stats have been going through the wars lately.

 

2nd link: extra context for the above, explaining that historically IMF gets forecasts more often right/accurate for stable environments (broadly, developed economies, ie US-Europe-Japan) than fast-changing ones (broadly, developing economies, ie BRICs) [as an aside: who'd have thought? ;)].

 

Now Brexit, until the new relationship with the EU is fully defined, remains a factor of unstability (EU member for 40 years = stability; Brexit=new situation, and undefined beyond Dec.2020, so necessarily unstable relative to status quo). Therefore forecast at first link could be off (eg if IMF is wrong about UK going for alignment, rather than bare-bones FTA, by late 2020/early 2021).

Edited by L00b

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Brexit not happened yet and the U.S. already threatening retaliation if we impose fair taxation on the likes of Amazon and Google,and also upset that our first deals are targeted with the EU rather than them.

It’s going to be a long hard road .

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3 hours ago, L00b said:

Many thanks for your trouble :) 

 

Believe it or not, I typed a 10-minutes considered reply, but my (ancient) iPad ate it (b&@£tard decided to reload the webpage out of the blue), so abridged version now, and I'll expand further with ad hoc edits:

 

1st link: IMF forecast for UK is reasonable, so long as underpinning assumptions hold true (orderly exit followed by new relationship across 2020/2021). If problems in either or both = forecast no longer valid.

 

That 'new relationship' is not defined with any precision that I could see, however, so there seems to be IMF fudging there. The IMF must be holding for the UK to concede EU alignment (the option least disruptive to trade), because if it's a bare-bones FTA by end Dec.20 instead, there's just no way the UK can expect to grow faster than e.g. France, or even the Eurozone, in 2021. Germany, that is a whole different kettle of fish, their economy and stats have been going through the wars lately.

 

2nd link: extra context for the above, explaining that historically IMF gets forecasts more often right/accurate for stable environments (broadly, developed economies, ie US-Europe-Japan) than fast-changing ones (broadly, developing economies, ie BRICs) [as an aside: who'd have thought? ;)].

 

Now Brexit, until the new relationship with the EU is fully defined, remains a factor of unstability (EU member for 40 years = stability; Brexit=new situation, and undefined beyond Dec.2020, so necessarily unstable relative to status quo). Therefore forecast at first link could be off (eg if IMF is wrong about UK going for alignment, rather than bare-bones FTA, by late 2020/early 2021).

Oh yes I hate it when that happens - very frustrating. 

 

Yes, it'd be interesting to know what assumptions the IMF makes regarding our trading relationship with the EU after the transition period, beyond an 'orderly exit' (which is pretty much guaranteed now the withdrawal agreement will be ratified by everyone) and a 'gradual transition to a new economic relationship' (which is incredibly vague and could cover both full alignment or a bare bones FTA agreement). 

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1 hour ago, RJRB said:

Brexit not happened yet and the U.S. already threatening retaliation if we impose fair taxation on the likes of Amazon and Google,and also upset that our first deals are targeted with the EU rather than them.

It’s going to be a long hard road .

I wish we were part of bloc that had some clout where we can't be pushed around. Oh wait. 

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35 minutes ago, Albert the Cat said:

I wish we were part of bloc that had some clout where we can't be pushed around. Oh wait. 

You mean like France? Oh no, wait... 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51192369

 

"France has agreed to delay collecting a new tax on multinational technology firms until the end of 2020, a French government official has told the BBC. The digital services tax has provoked an angry response from Washington. The US had threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs on $2.4bn (£1.8bn) of French goods, including champagne and cheese, after the tax was passed in July 2019" 

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The terrestrial TV schedules make for interesting viewing on 31 January 2020.

 

BBC1, 11:05 pm Film: The Great Escape.

BBC2, 11:45 pm Film: Cry Freedom.

ITV1, 11:15 pm Film: Mission Impossible.

C4, 11:50 pm Film: Great Expectations.

Channel 5, 11:00 pm Film: Independence Day.

 

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They're not going to show Braveheart so we can all bellow "FREEDOM" at the telly ???

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Or Groundhog Day

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It seems brexiteers are still moaning:

 

 

Now its that outside the EU we won't get a say on things that affect us - well what did they think was going to happen?

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9 minutes ago, nightrider said:

It seems brexiteers are still moaning:

 

 

Now its that outside the EU we won't get a say on things that affect us - well what did they think was going to happen?

At the risk of contradicting myself that this thread should be closed, quote from today's 'i' newspaper. 

 

"Britain is definitely leaving the EU on 31 January.  There will DEFINITELY NOT BE ANY LAST MINUTE REPRIEVE." 

Edited by Baron99

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