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Consequences Of Brexit [Part 8] Read First Post Before Posting

Groose

Mod Note: As we are getting rather tired of seeing reports about this. The use of the word Remoaners  is to cease. Either posts like adults, or don't post at all. The mod warnings have been clear.

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mort

In addition to remoaner we are also not going to allow the use of libdums or liebore - if you cannot behave like adults and post without recourse to these childish insults then please refrain from posting. If you have a problem with this then you all know where the helpdesk is. 

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30 minutes ago, ads36 said:

It's increasingly clear that Johnson and his cabinet don't understand what they're proposing to do to Northern Ireland...

 

Which is disturbing and hilarious in equal measures.

Mostly disturbing if I’m honest, magnified by the fact his acolytes don’t seem to care about the damage he’s doing.

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51 minutes ago, apelike said:

I don't think his legal advisors said it wasn't legal to prorogue parliament the way he did. In any case the courts later declared that it was unlawful and not illegal.

Unlawful/illegal, it doesn't alter my point - he'd have gone against the advice of his legal experts.

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1 hour ago, tinfoilhat said:

Sadly, it will be the same leader with a workable majority. 

Depends on whether Johnson manages to get anything through the HoC this side of Hallowe'en.

 

Because if he doesn't, all those promises which he made during his leadership campaign (do or die Brexit by Hallowe'en, won't ever request an extension, etc) are going to come back haunting the Tories' electoral campaign with a vengeance...

 

...to the benefit of Nigel's BXP which, supreme irony, would severely cannibalise the Tory vote, and so dilute the pro-Leave vote everywhere.

 

Sprinkle a bit more mixed messaging from self-conflicted, fence-sitting Labour on top of that confused electorate, and you just may end up with the LibDems in with a shout at playing kingmaker.

 

Electoral polls over the past few months are all over the place, so I'll take my cues from actual by-election results over the same timescale, and there the picture is much clearer: the LDs are cleaning up.

Edited by L00b

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I'm sat as an election agent for a couple of LD candidates and the private polling information we are getting is most illuminating. If bojo fails to deliver as he now almost certainly will the LD are hoovering up votes from the Tories, with a more modest amount coming from Labour. It could be very interesting...

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The Torys could stand to lose a few votes though, given last election they won 13.6m, thats pretty much the same number Blair got in 1997.

 

Voter turnout is very high currently as well, something I think has been encouraged by Brexit.

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19 minutes ago, geared said:

The Torys could stand to lose a few votes though, given last election they won 13.6m, thats pretty much the same number Blair got in 1997.

 

Voter turnout is very high currently as well, something I think has been encouraged by Brexit.

Are you sure they could stand to lose a few votes? After the last election they didn't have an overall majority and had to rely on the DUP to prop them up. They are unlikely regain all of their seats with now defected MPs, e.g. South Cambridgeshire voted 60.2% in the EU referendum, Heidi Allen is very likely to win again in a new election. On top of that, the recent revelations about what Boris's deal means for the GB/NI border means the DUP aren't going to be supporting them next time.

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It all depends on where the votes go, because Labour could easily lose their shirt to the Lib Dems.

 

I'm not sure anyone is bothered about the DUP next time around, I can see them getting nearly wiped out after cosying up to the Torys.

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9 minutes ago, geared said:

It all depends on where the votes go, because Labour could easily lose their shirt to the Lib Dems.

 

I'm not sure anyone is bothered about the DUP next time around, I can see them getting nearly wiped out after cosying up to the Torys.

You need to lookup (highly peculiar-) NI politics a bit more ;)

 

The DUP don't have much to fear: unlike the Tories and Labour which are newly concerned by ideological rifts within their traditional electorate due to Brexit, the DUP's electoral base has always been ideologically-driven due to reasons wholly unrelated to Brexit (-save where its implementation risks alienating NI from the mainland UK).

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3 minutes ago, geared said:

It all depends on where the votes go, because Labour could easily lose their shirt to the Lib Dems.

There are far more Tory/Lib Dem marginals than Labour/Lib Dem ones.

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1 hour ago, L00b said:

Depends on whether Johnson manages to get anything through the HoC this side of Hallowe'en.

 

Because if he doesn't, all those promises which he made during his leadership campaign (do or die Brexit by Hallowe'en, won't ever request an extension, etc) are going to come back haunting the Tories' electoral campaign with a vengeance...

 

...to the benefit of Nigel's BXP which, supreme irony, would severely cannibalise the Tory vote, and so dilute the pro-Leave vote everywhere.

 

Sprinkle a bit more mixed messaging from self-conflicted, fence-sitting Labour on top of that confused electorate, and you just may end up with the LibDems in with a shout at playing kingmaker.

 

Electoral polls over the past few months are all over the place, so I'll take my cues from actual by-election results over the same timescale, and there the picture is much clearer: the LDs are cleaning up.

Boris isn't going to lose any support if the new Withdrawal Agreement doesn't get through Parliament before the General Election because his supporters know he is not to blame for the actions of the dishonest rogue Parliament.  The fact that the EU have supported Boris with the new Withdrawal Agreement is to his advantage.

 

You do make a sensible point regarding the Brexit Party because there is a danger some votes that would have gone to a Tory candidate will open the door for a Lib Dem candidate winning a seat by default.

 

14 minutes ago, geared said:

It all depends on where the votes go, because Labour could easily lose their shirt to the Lib Dems.

 

I'm not sure anyone is bothered about the DUP next time around, I can see them getting nearly wiped out after cosying up to the Torys.

The DUP are not  going to be wiped out and will only lose one or two seats at worse.  Hopefully Boris will not need their support after the General Election because he will have a working majority.

Edited by Lockdoctor
tidy up

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49 minutes ago, Lockdoctor said:

 

 

The DUP are not  going to be wiped out and will only lose one or two seats at worse.  Hopefully Boris will not need their support after the General Election because he will have a working majority.

In your dreams.

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18 minutes ago, Halibut said:

In your dreams.

The longer this goes on, the more the British electorate just want to get Brexit done and to Leave the EU.

 

54% of the British public now support the UK abiding by the referendum result and leaving the EU - regardless of the way they voted in the 2016 Referendum.

 

Most people’s preferred outcome is for the UK to leave the EU. 

 

A Leave supporting Tory party could well find itself with a working majority after a Brexit dominated general election if Brexit is not delivered on October 31st.

Edited by Car Boot

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