Consequences Of Brexit [Part 8] Read First Post Before Posting

[L00b 441]

There I was, thinking you Leave types didn’t believe in forecasts, after 4 years of your barracking any negative consequence expected from Brexit as ‘Project Fear’ or crystal-ball gazing...

 

So which is it?

Edited January 21, 2020 by L00b

[Robin-H 11]

7 minutes ago, L00b said:

There I was, thinking you Leave types didn’t believe in forecasts, after 4 years of your barracking any negative consequence expected from Brexit as ‘Project Fear’ or crystal-ball gazing...

 

So which is it?

Do you believe in the forecast? 

[L00b 441]

14 hours ago, Robin-H said:

Do you believe in the forecast? 

I believe in facts, e.g. actual economic figures, written law and procedures, etc.

 

Those, and the statistical assumptions ('model') through which they go to make a forecast, are what makes that forecast reasonable, or not.

 

Car Boot did not link that IMF forecast, so I've no idea whether it's believable or not. Nor even, whether the forecast actually tallies with Car Boot's claims at all, or not. 

 

Ask me again when he's (or you've) done so, and I've seen it.

[Robin-H 11]

1 hour ago, L00b said:

I believe in facts, e.g. actual economic figures, written law and procedures, etc.

 

Those, and the statistical assumptions ('model') through which they go to make a forecast, are what makes that forecast reasonable, or not.

 

Car Boot did not link that IMF forecast, so I've no idea whether it's believable or not. Nor even, whether the forecast actually tallies with Car Boot's claims at all, or not. 

 

Ask me again when he's (or you've) done so, and I've seen it.

I believe the report can be downloaded (and is also summarised) here. 

 

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/01/20/weo-update-january2020

 

Here is also an interesting article about the reliability of IMF forecasts https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-imf-forecasts/ which a nifty chart that shows how off (or on) their forecasts have been in the past. 

[RJRB 688]

See below

Edited January 22, 2020 by RJRB

[RJRB 688]

21 hours ago, Car Boot said:

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted stronger growth for a post-Brexit UK than what it is predicting for Germany, France and Japan.

 

Unfortunately I don't think the IMF is very credible these days, considering that it previously predicted that Brexit would be "pretty bad to very, very bad" for the UK economy. Now it's predicting stable growth after Brexit.

 

it seems that all those who were told that Brexit couldn't be done and that if it was done it would be terrible were misinformed. 

My bold.

It’s much to early to make a call on whether Brexit is terrible ,beneficial or marginal either way.

Give it a year and see what trade deals we have achieved,what investment has been won and what proper jobs we have won or lost.

In the meantime my own feelings are in line with the U.K. diplomat to the U.S.who felt she had to resign rather than peddle the lies and half truths of the Johnson Brexit campaign.https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/06/alexandra-hall-british-diplomat-resigns-letter-cant-peddle-half-truths-uk-government

[L00b 441]

4 hours ago, Robin-H said:

I believe the report can be downloaded (and is also summarised) here. 

 

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/01/20/weo-update-january2020

 

Here is also an interesting article about the reliability of IMF forecasts https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-imf-forecasts/ which a nifty chart that shows how off (or on) their forecasts have been in the past. 

Many thanks for your trouble  

 

Believe it or not, I typed a 10-minutes considered reply, but my (ancient) iPad ate it (b&@£tard decided to reload the webpage out of the blue), so abridged version now, and I'll expand further with ad hoc edits:

 

1st link: IMF forecast for UK is reasonable, so long as underpinning assumptions hold true (orderly exit followed by new relationship across 2020/2021). If problems in either or both = forecast no longer valid.

 

That 'new relationship' is not defined with any precision that I could see, however, so there seems to be IMF fudging there. The IMF must be holding for the UK to concede EU alignment (the option least disruptive to trade), because if it's a bare-bones FTA by end Dec.20 instead, there's just no way the UK can expect to grow faster than e.g. France, or even the Eurozone, in 2021. Germany, that is a whole different kettle of fish, their economy and stats have been going through the wars lately.

 

2nd link: extra context for the above, explaining that historically IMF gets forecasts more often right/accurate for stable environments (broadly, developed economies, ie US-Europe-Japan) than fast-changing ones (broadly, developing economies, ie BRICs) [as an aside: who'd have thought? ].

 

Now Brexit, until the new relationship with the EU is fully defined, remains a factor of unstability (EU member for 40 years = stability; Brexit=new situation, and undefined beyond Dec.2020, so necessarily unstable relative to status quo). Therefore forecast at first link could be off (eg if IMF is wrong about UK going for alignment, rather than bare-bones FTA, by late 2020/early 2021).

Edited January 22, 2020 by L00b

[RJRB 688]

Brexit not happened yet and the U.S. already threatening retaliation if we impose fair taxation on the likes of Amazon and Google,and also upset that our first deals are targeted with the EU rather than them.

It’s going to be a long hard road .

[Robin-H 11]

3 hours ago, L00b said:

Many thanks for your trouble  

 

Believe it or not, I typed a 10-minutes considered reply, but my (ancient) iPad ate it (b&@£tard decided to reload the webpage out of the blue), so abridged version now, and I'll expand further with ad hoc edits:

 

1st link: IMF forecast for UK is reasonable, so long as underpinning assumptions hold true (orderly exit followed by new relationship across 2020/2021). If problems in either or both = forecast no longer valid.

 

That 'new relationship' is not defined with any precision that I could see, however, so there seems to be IMF fudging there. The IMF must be holding for the UK to concede EU alignment (the option least disruptive to trade), because if it's a bare-bones FTA by end Dec.20 instead, there's just no way the UK can expect to grow faster than e.g. France, or even the Eurozone, in 2021. Germany, that is a whole different kettle of fish, their economy and stats have been going through the wars lately.

 

2nd link: extra context for the above, explaining that historically IMF gets forecasts more often right/accurate for stable environments (broadly, developed economies, ie US-Europe-Japan) than fast-changing ones (broadly, developing economies, ie BRICs) [as an aside: who'd have thought? ].

 

Now Brexit, until the new relationship with the EU is fully defined, remains a factor of unstability (EU member for 40 years = stability; Brexit=new situation, and undefined beyond Dec.2020, so necessarily unstable relative to status quo). Therefore forecast at first link could be off (eg if IMF is wrong about UK going for alignment, rather than bare-bones FTA, by late 2020/early 2021).

Oh yes I hate it when that happens - very frustrating. 

 

Yes, it'd be interesting to know what assumptions the IMF makes regarding our trading relationship with the EU after the transition period, beyond an 'orderly exit' (which is pretty much guaranteed now the withdrawal agreement will be ratified by everyone) and a 'gradual transition to a new economic relationship' (which is incredibly vague and could cover both full alignment or a bare bones FTA agreement). 

[Albert the Cat 0]

1 hour ago, RJRB said:

Brexit not happened yet and the U.S. already threatening retaliation if we impose fair taxation on the likes of Amazon and Google,and also upset that our first deals are targeted with the EU rather than them.

It’s going to be a long hard road .

I wish we were part of bloc that had some clout where we can't be pushed around. Oh wait. 

[Robin-H 11]

35 minutes ago, Albert the Cat said:

I wish we were part of bloc that had some clout where we can't be pushed around. Oh wait. 

You mean like France? Oh no, wait... 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51192369

 

"France has agreed to delay collecting a new tax on multinational technology firms until the end of 2020, a French government official has told the BBC. The digital services tax has provoked an angry response from Washington. The US had threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs on $2.4bn (£1.8bn) of French goods, including champagne and cheese, after the tax was passed in July 2019" 

[Car Boot 10]

The terrestrial TV schedules make for interesting viewing on 31 January 2020.

 

BBC1, 11:05 pm Film: The Great Escape.

BBC2, 11:45 pm Film: Cry Freedom.

ITV1, 11:15 pm Film: Mission Impossible.

C4, 11:50 pm Film: Great Expectations.

Channel 5, 11:00 pm Film: Independence Day.