Who next for Tory Leader/PM?

[Voice of reason 0]

Just now, Top Cats Hat said:

Why not, he has the election in the bag? 

 

What possible value is there in him exposing himself to unnecessary risk? Anything stupid he says will have no effect on the Tory electorate but will be lapped up by Corbyn who will use it against him at the next election where he won’t be able to hide.

Or whichever leader Labour have then. Anyway, it should be held against him regardless by everyone. The process of becoming PM is what it is, and has happened many times before. But, it should still be treated with respect, especially in the situation we are currently in.

[Mister M 1,625]

15 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

I doubt it will make any difference.

 

Not only are the majority of Conservative members Brexiteers, but large numbers are completely bonkers Brexiteers who would happily see the Union collapse and the economy destroyed as long as it meant leaving the EU. Hunt is seen as a Remainer by most of them and they will never vote for a Remainer. Johnson could turn up for a TV debate completely naked with a plastic Union Jack hat on his head and will still win.

 

Any amount of blunders by Boris the Clown will not stop him winning, they will simply reduce the majority by which he wins.

Johnson is just taking the Tory membership for granted. If they want to be treated like mugs, that's fine. However, they should remember that they are voting for the PM, and not all of us are mugs, or like being treated as if we're idiots.

Johnson is a crummy, second rate charlatan in my opinion. I don't give a damn about his private life, but I don't like arrogance or entitlement; and by the way he's behaved in the past and now, it looks as if he's got those qualities in spades.

Edited June 24, 2019 by Mister M

[GivenToFly 0]

29 minutes ago, Voice of reason said:

 

 

It seems ludicrous for him not to do it. Does he intend to go the whole process without doing anything???

..............................

Edited June 24, 2019 by GivenToFly

[Top Cats Hat 10]

7 minutes ago, Mister M said:

Johnson is just taking the Tory membership for granted.

And he is right to. 

 

He has been leading by some margin in polls of party members for at least three years now and since his supporters ‘loaned their votes’ to Jeremy Hunt to make sure that Michael Gove got booted, he was never going to lose.

 

In a choice between two Leavers, votes lost by Johnson would automatically go to Gove. With Hunt in the race, votes lost by Johnson will probably end up as abstentions. If Johnson’s campaign completely implodes, turnout will be reduced but he will still win.

[Voice of reason 0]

24 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

And he is right to. 

 

Maybe from the perspective of getting through at any cost, but no other.

Doing that is wrong. He is campaigning to be pm of our country. That carries great responsibilty, and he should treat it with respect. If he doesn't, the  credibilty he has with some people will vapourise.

[Top Cats Hat 10]

25 minutes ago, Voice of reason said:

He is campaigning to be pm of our country. 

He is not. 

 

He is campaigning to be leader of the Conservative Party. This is simply an internal party matter. Becoming Prime Minister is simply a facet of the Conservatives current Parliamentary position. If the upcoming by election is lost to the Liberal Democrats and the (now expired) confidence and supply agreement with the DUP is not renewed, then there is no guarantee that he will become Prime Minister.

[L00b 441]

8 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

He is not. 

 

He is campaigning to be leader of the Conservative Party. This is simply an internal party matter. Becoming Prime Minister is simply a facet of the Conservatives current Parliamentary position. If the upcoming by election is lost to the Liberal Democrats and the (now expired) confidence and supply agreement with the DUP is not renewed, then there is no guarantee that he will become Prime Minister.

Now I could be wrong, so do please correct me if I am...

 

...but under your constitutional arrangements, isn't it the case that, when Boris walks up to Liz and she asks him wether he can form a government (ie has enough support in the HoC) and he says yes, then she can call a GE herself if she does not believe that he can?

[Top Cats Hat 10]

6 minutes ago, L00b said:

Now I could be wrong, so do please correct me if I am...

 

...but under your constitutional arrangements, isn't it the case that, when Boris walks up to Liz and she asks him wether he can form a government (ie has enough support in the HoC) and he says yes, then she can call a GE herself if she does not believe that he can?

No, the Queen can no longer dissolve Parliament or call a General Election. Boris Johnson can form a minority government if he wishes, but without the ability to pass legislation, at some point a successful vote of no confidence will result in a General Election. 

 

The maths on this is not straightforward. Although a number of Tory MPs have made it clear that they wouldn’t hesitate to support a vote of no confidence in their own government, there are a number of Labour MPs who would support the government in a vote of no confidence.

 

Things have changed since May’s ‘strong and stable’ election in 2017, the maths have changed somewhat. The runners and riders are currently.....

 

Conservatives 312

Opposition Parties 319

Sinn Fèin 7

DUP 10

 

So the Conservatives are already a minority government relying on the DUP to pass legislation. If (as seems likely) the Tories lose Brecon and Radnorshire to the Lib Dems then we have.....

 

Conservatives and DUP  321

Opposition Parties  320

Sinn Fèin 7

 

That is about as close as any minority government wants to be. If Ian Paisley Jr. had lost his recall vote last year and Sinn Fèin had taken his seat in the subsequent by election, the Tories would have had no working majority even with the help of the DUP. Once again, just like Brexit last year and James Callaghan in 1979, Irish politics have played a pivotal role in UK political affairs!

[L00b 441]

Thanks Top Cat, really appreciate the effort that went in that.

 

Accessorily, as I know you're plenty familiar with Irish matters, you know as well as I do that Sinn Fèin will never take their seats, and still less so when Brexit (particularly a no deal variant) shows the strongest prospects of bringing about a border poll. So it's safe to discount them form any HoC arithmetic 

Edited June 24, 2019 by L00b

[Voice of reason 0]

1 hour ago, Top Cats Hat said:

He is not. 

 

He is campaigning to be leader of the Conservative Party. This is simply an internal party matter. Becoming Prime Minister is simply a facet of the Conservatives current Parliamentary position. If the upcoming by election is lost to the Liberal Democrats and the (now expired) confidence and supply agreement with the DUP is not renewed, then there is no guarantee that he will become Prime Minister.

Ok, but he is campaigning, by default, to be prime minister. My comments still stand on that basis.

If you just think it's about being tory lesder and nobody else should care, then that's up to you.

[Top Cats Hat 10]

Absolutely.

 

What those who say ‘why don’t Sinn Fèin just take their seats and change all the maths’ don’t seem to get is firstly, Sinn Fèin regard Westminster as a foreign Parliament that has no jurisdiction over their country so swearing an oath of allegiance to the Queen and sitting in that Parliament would be extremely bizarre.

 

Secondly, the Irish Republican movement has until the Belfast Agreement, always viewed Britain’s 800 year rule in Ireland as an illegal occupation of their land and therefore neither knows nor cares about what they see as an internal UK matter. As you say, Brexit, particularly a no deal Brexit, is going to push the North into a United Ireland importantly with the support of many middle class Unionists who would rather be part of a wealthy United Ireland within the EU than an outlying territory of a bankrupt UK outside the EU.

 

Personally I think that the move towards a united Ireland is now unstoppable regardless of how the pantomime which is Brexit turns out.

[Lockdoctor 10]

10 hours ago, Mr Fisk said:

There is no answer to getting out of Brexit- no one has it.

 

If we are a democracy then let the people vote again or revoke article 50 as it seems the consequences of going through Brexit is going to be more damaging.

 

Have just heard Jacob Rees on radio and he is still endorsing Boris- thinks no one else has what he has!

Of course Jacob Rees-Mogg  is still supporting Boris because he is the only pro Brexit candidate out of two left in the leadership contest.  Jacob Rees- Mogg isn't allowed to substitute Boris and bring on Dominic Raab or Andrea Leadsom to replace Boris.

 

7 hours ago, hobinfoot said:

I thought we'd had a democratic vote in 2016. I voted to remain and has a person who excepted the result even though it was not the one I wanted. This is what democracy is.

As a fellow remain voter who respects democracy I am with you hobinfoot.  The majority of Sheffield Forum members who post on Brexit related threads are an embarrassment for our country's democracy.

Edited June 24, 2019 by Lockdoctor