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Who next for Tory Leader/PM?

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1 minute ago, alchresearch said:

Is all this hate for Boris because he's the best chance the Tories have at keeping Labour out of government for a little while longer?

Not a statement to give you confidence in the talent available in the Conservative party!

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2 minutes ago, alchresearch said:

Is all this hate for Boris because he's the best chance the Tories have at keeping Labour out of government for a little while longer?

Labour's best bet is in coalition, probably with the SNP. The fact they aren't 20 points clear in the polls speaks volumes. 

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20 minutes ago, Lockdoctor said:

(...)  Our country has a better chance of getting an improved deal from the EU if we have a Prime Minister they know is genuinely prepared to leave the EU without a deal. 

With all due respect that is just your biased opinion ;)

 

Nothing changes with Boris or any other new PM, however hardline he or she may be, until and unless the UK is ready and willing to row back on Theresa's Lancaster House red lines (in which case, sure, the EU would re-open the WA - because it would be in the EU27's collective and respective best interests).

 

Your choices long were WA, no deal or cancel Brexit. They are still exactly that now, and will still be exactly that when the next Tory party leader takes office in no.10, or when or Corbyn (or anyone else) does so after a 2019GE if one is called.

 

Besides being simply one of three choices long available to the UK (for the consequences of which the EU27 are better prepared than the UK, and the UK very far from sufficiently prepared by the admission of all in relevant positions of authority), 'threatening' to leave the EU without a deal, is still exactly the same empty threat that it ever was, ever since it was first mooted. And the UK has already blinked on it a few times by now, the last time only 3 months ago.

 

Word of caution (not that it matters with you, but...): the EU27 and Brussels have all played softly and friendly with the UK so far. Your next PM gets their backs up (and that of the US, if your next PM is sufficiently dumb to try and crow bar Ireland) at your collective peril.

 

There's rarely been a better opportunity to restate that old curse, here: be careful what you wish for, as you might just get it :twisted:

Edited by L00b

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21 minutes ago, tinfoilhat said:

How much do you want to bet on that? The EU deal isn't changing. The make up of parliament is changing. The fact the DUP hold a chunk of power isn't changing. I think we'll be crashing in out in October without a deal or - and this is our best option - it's put on hold for years. 

 

I suspect the former, I don't know how much the EU are prepared to wait.

We will soon know whether the EU are prepared to change anything because the new Prime Minister won't waste any time in finding out.  Peston thinks the Tory Party will change their election rules to get the new leader in office quicker.  

24 minutes ago, alchresearch said:

Is all this hate for Boris because he's the best chance the Tories have at keeping Labour out of government for a little while longer?

  1. Yes.  There was a poll which suggest the Tories will have landslide victory with Boris as their leader.  The support Boris received in the first round indicates the ability to win an election is just as important as getting Brexit implemented for the MPs who voted for Boris.

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16 minutes ago, Lockdoctor said:

 (...)

 

Yes.  There was a poll which suggest the Tories will have landslide victory with Boris as their leader.  The support Boris received in the first round indicates the ability to win an election is just as important as getting Brexit implemented for the MPs who voted for Boris.

Was that poll conducted by the same outfit, whose earlier polls had likewise suggested a landslide Conservative majority at the 2017GE?

 

:lol:

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9 minutes ago, L00b said:

Was that poll conducted by the same outfit, whose earlier polls had likewise suggested a landslide Conservative majority at the 2017GE?

 

:lol:

I don't know.  What they did is compare how a General Election result prediction would look with each of the main Tory candidates as the next Prime Minister.  Boris came out as the clear winner.

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1 hour ago, Lockdoctor said:

With all due respect that is just your biased negative opinion.  Our country has a better chance of getting an improved deal from the EU if we have a Prime Minister they know is genuinely prepared to leave the EU without a deal. 

That is not based in reality, it's simply more of the same unicorns we've been hearing for the last 3 years.

 

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The masochist in me wants Boris to win and to turn up to the EU, with farage and rees mogg in his team and come back with absolutely sod all.

 

 

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1 hour ago, alchresearch said:

Is all this hate for Boris because he's the best chance the Tories have at keeping Labour out of government for a little while longer?

I think it’s because he’s a unreliable morally corrupt serial liar with who is in cahoots with Steve Bannon and is an embarrassment to the U.K.

 

Add his track record for appalling decisions that have wasted public money, and his disastrous spell as Foreign Secretary and there are plenty of reasons before we even consider the Labour Party

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12 minutes ago, Magilla said:

That is not based in reality, it's simply more of the same unicorns we've been hearing for the last 3 years.

 

The reality is if you want to negotiate a good deal in anything then you have to be prepared to walk away from a deal.  

 

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22 minutes ago, tinfoilhat said:

I thought I'd post that because it explains so much :hihi:

 

 

Eight reasons Tory MPs keep getting it wrong:

• Many Tories are cynics faking it. They publicly back no deal, knowing it would be a disaster, but are counting on the rest of parliament to stop it. They just want to sound hard, because they live in fear of deselection by their hard-Brexiter local parties. Tory MPs know that the job market for ex-Tory MPs is currently pretty weak.

• The corollary: there is no political advantage in grasping reality if your voters don’t. Steven Sloman, cognitive scientist at Brown University, points out that most people cannot describe the workings of a toilet. The EU and the international trade system are even trickier. Sloman says the only way to handle complex issues is therefore to listen to experts. Politicians sometimes did that, until populism came along.

• Widmerpoolism. Kenneth Widmerpool, the creation of English novelist Anthony Powell, has become a byword for the blind will to power. Educated at a school modelled on Powell’s Eton, Widmerpool builds a glittering career (including a stint as MP) on tireless manipulative infighting. Powell’s insight applies here: after correcting for birth, power goes to the people most committed to getting it.

• An inability to admit past error. If you have supported Brexit for years, you will look silly if you let new information nuance your views. Recall how Dominic Raab was mocked for confessing he “hadn’t quite understood the full extent” of the UK’s dependence on the Dover-Calais crossing for trade. Karen Bradley received similar treatment for admitting that she only discovered while Northern Ireland secretary that Northern Irish nationalists “don’t vote for unionist parties and vice versa”. It’s safer for politicians to be consistently wrong.

• If your genuine beliefs contradict reality, deny reality. Tory MP John Redwood is a fanatical Brexiter. So when he wrote that the UK’s exit bill on leaving the EU was “Zero. Nothing. Zilch”, as if Britain held all the cards, he was probably forcing himself not to see reality. A related Tory trait is what the French call volontarisme: the notion that willpower can change reality.

• Denying reality proves your fanaticism to other fanatics. Tory MP Daniel Kawczynski tweeted in February: “Britain helped to liberate half of Europe . . . No Marshall Plan for us only for Germany.” In fact, as thousands of people swiftly told him, Britain was the Plan’s largest beneficiary. Yet Kawczynski stood by his false claim for two weeks. By holding firm against reality, he signalled his loyalty to the cause.

• Laziness. In the British gentleman-dilettante tradition, many Conservative politicians leave boring detail to civil servants. Added to that is the callowness of today’s Tories, the luckiest members of the luckiest British generation in history. When you know your class will always prosper, you can afford airy gambles. Hence Cameron’s bet that a referendum would put the European issue to bed, reunite the Tory party and see off the threat from Nigel Farage.

• Stupidity and ignorance. Some people sound stupid or ignorant because they are stupid or ignorant. That could explain the Tory MP Nadine Dorries’s complaint that May’s deal would leave the UK without MEPs after Brexit; or MP Andrew Bridgen’s belief that “English” people are entitled to ask for an Irish passport (that Ireland is a forgotten British possession probably played a role too).

Ignorant people can succeed if success depends on other, unrelated qualities. Many companies promote good-looking people. The Tory party promotes articulate public schoolboys.

In the classic essay “The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity”, the late Italian economic historian Carlo Cipolla warned: “A stupid person is more dangerous than a bandit.” He explained: “Stupid people cause losses to other people with no counterpart of gains on their own account. Thus society as a whole is impoverished.” Let’s hope the next prime minister is merely a bandit.

 

3 minutes ago, Lockdoctor said:

The reality is if you want to negotiate a good deal in anything then you have to be prepared to walk away from a deal.  

 

Walking away from a deal usually means leaving things as they are, the status quo.

 

Holding a gun to your own head, threatening to blow your brains out if you don't get your way isn't negotiating :roll:

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