Euro Elections

[I1L2T3 10]

11 minutes ago, WiseOwl182 said:

I'm not trying to lump them into a no deal Brexit. I'm lumping them in as leave, because they are. Leave is a spectrum, but they stood on a platform that was on that spectrum.

 

I'm showing that the split between leave (no deal or soft) and remain is still pretty much the same as 2016.

They said that after the vote. Labour stood on a soft Brexit platform for the election and their votes should be counted as such. A 50/50 split is more than fair.

Yes but mate - with all due respect - it is three years since the referendum and you have to move beyond the mantra of ‘people just want to leave’.

 

Unless you can explain what leave means it is completely and utterly and pathetically pointless.

 

Just repeating it over and over and playing games with statistics doesn’t move the debate on

[Pettytom 1]

1 hour ago, WiseOwl182 said:

That's irrelevant. In an EU election, it's the position of the party on the EU that matters. Conservatives stand for leave, so their votes count for leave. Labour's position has been too unclear (although they officially stick by the 2016 result, but I'll be generous and split their vote 50/50).

I agree totally.  In a GE, I would have voted Labour. In this election I voted Green.  I’m sure you can work out my reasons for both.

Edited May 27, 2019 by Pettytom

[WiseOwl182 10]

17 minutes ago, I1L2T3 said:

Yes but mate - with all due respect - it is three years since the referendum and you have to move beyond the mantra of ‘people just want to leave’.

 

Unless you can explain what leave means it is completely and utterly and pathetically pointless.

 

Just repeating it over and over and playing games with statistics doesn’t move the debate on

So your argument is that, although more people want to leave than remain, the fact they can't decide on how to leave means we should remain by default? How is that moving anything on?

[I1L2T3 10]

10 minutes ago, WiseOwl182 said:

So your argument is that, although more people want to leave than remain, the fact they can't decide on how to leave means we should remain by default? How is that moving anything on?

No I’m not saying that. Firstly it isn't clear that that there is now more support for leave. Secondly, imagining that there was more support for leave then after three years shouldn’t you have a consensus on what it actually is.

 

There is no consensus and that makes it impossible to please even those who want leave.

 

Farage has failed to push forward that consensus. I think he needed approaching 40% in these elections to do that. He only just made it past 30%.

Edited May 27, 2019 by I1L2T3

[WiseOwl182 10]

4 minutes ago, I1L2T3 said:

No I’m not saying that. Firstly it isn't clear that that there is now more support for leave. Secondly, imagining that there was more support for leave then after three years shouldn’t you have a consensus on what it actually is.

 

There is no consensus and that makes it impossible to please even those who want leave.

 

Farage has failed to push forward that consensus. I think he needed approaching 40% in these elections to do that. He only just made it past 30%.

Firstly it is clear that there's still a majority for leave.

 

Secondly, it still sounds like you're saying that since we can't decide what kind of leave we want then we should remain. If you're not saying that, what are you saying?

[L00b 441]

2 hours ago, ez8004 said:

Not heard about the EU nationals and British expats not being able to vote and the government is getting sued because of it?

Heard and saw plenty about that int'UK. The usual brewery, organising, ****-up affair...and that's assuming this 'extra' form to be filled in and returned by EU27 residents in the UK was not deliberately held back by the HO.

 

Not here in Lux, wherein Mrs L00b (Brit) & myself (Fra) went to vote Sunday morning, and the experience was one of the smoothest yet.

 

86.something turnout, no upheavals what-so-ever. Great system as well, 6 votes each to be sprinkled as you choose (all 6 on 1 list, or mix-and-match on individuals: so that was 2 for the Green head-of-list, 2 for Fiona at VOLT...and 2 for the Piraten head-of-list as my token protest-the-establishmunt ).

 

So, I see Farage turned UKIP votes into Brexit Party votes, Labour's fence-sitting cost them dearly, the Cons' death spiral continues apace, and pro-EU parties are surging. I'd call that a good result 

Edited May 27, 2019 by L00b

[Top Cats Hat 10]

12 minutes ago, WiseOwl182 said:

Firstly it is clear that there's still a majority for leave.

What on earth do you base that on?

[WiseOwl182 10]

2 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

What on earth do you base that on?

UK results based on vote share after 10 of 12 regions:

 

Leave:

Brexit Party 33.3%

Conservatives 8.8%

UKIP 3.5%

Half of Labour 7.3%

 

Total: 52.9%

 

Leave 52.9, remain 47.1

[L00b 441]

A simplistic vote share work out:

 

LD up 14%

Greens up 5%

Lab down 10%

Con down 16 %

 

So 26% down for the main parties,19% up for Remain parties, which leaves 7% unaccounted for.

 

UKIP down 25%

25% plus the floating 7% = 32%

Brexit party on 33%, close enough I think.

 

Looks like the Con/Lab vote went to remain parties 2.5/1 approx.

 

[Top Cats Hat 10]

3 minutes ago, WiseOwl182 said:

UK results based on vote share after 10 of 12 regions:

 

Leave:

Brexit Party 33.3%

Conservatives 8.8%

UKIP 3.5%

Half of Labour 7.3%

 

Total: 52.9%

 

Leave 52.9, remain 47.1

That is just wishful thinking though. Very dodgy assumptions and doesn't include the results from Scotland and Ireland.

 

The reality is that Brexit support is down from 2016 and importantly is now based firmly in England with Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and Gibralter being for Remain.

 

The most important thing to be drawn from Thursday's vote is that Labour's position on Brexit is now a proven electoral disaster and murmers are starting to emerge that even hardliners like John McDonnell are now considering a second referendum. Corbyn is now saying that he is going to consult party members and affiliates about Labour Party direction on Brexit. I suspect at September's party conference the membership will overwhelmingly vote for Labour to become an apologetically Remain Party and if Corbyn tried to hamper or resist this, he will be toast.

 

In other news, Farage is demanding to be included in the withdrawal negotiation team! 😂

[WiseOwl182 10]

8 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

That is just wishful thinking though. Very dodgy assumptions and doesn't include the results from Scotland and Ireland.

 

The reality is that Brexit support is down from 2016 and importantly is now based firmly in England with Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and Gibralter being for Remain.

 

 

It does include Scotland, but Northern Ireland hasn't announced yet. No dodgy assumptions at all, just a simple count of percentages for pro-Leave parties (and splitting Labour 50/50 due to their chameleon position on Brexit).

 

It's not wishful thinking either, since I'm neither a leaver nor a remainer 

Edited May 27, 2019 by WiseOwl182

[Eater Sundae 12]

The EU election results will never tell us the whether the Labour voters want to remain or leave, as their policy wasn’t clear. The same applies to all parties, to a varying extent, as this was a vote to determine who should represent us as our MEPs, although some (many, who knows?) used it to say whether or not they wanted brexit.

 

Even among those who want leave, there is still a whole spectrum of what leave will mean.  The European elections have changed nothing in terms of our understanding.

 

Both (all) sides are claiming some sort of victory.

 

The way things are going, whoever replaces May will not be able to cobble together a new deal - the problems she had in parliament will not go away. Ultimately, we will reach October (or even a later date if the new PM kicks it down the road a bit), without agreement, and just fall out of the EU with no deal. Despite attempts at rewriting history, a no deal brexit was barely mentioned in the run up to the 2016 referendum. Brexiteers were falling over themselves to tell us how easy it would be to leave with whatever deal we wanted. A no deal brexit was not on the 2016 ballot paper, but it looks like that’s what we’re heading towards.

 

If the PM agrees a delay past October, he/she will not push it too far, as they daren’t risk a general election as the Conservatives would be decimated. They need to have put the whole brexit issue to bed before the next election.

 

So we are left with just blindly staggering towards a hard brexit. If the Conservatives deliver a hard brexit and the financial and social issues that come with it, they will never recover from the self imposed damage.

 

I believe that another referendum could actually be their salvation.

 

It would need to be in two parts:

 

Part A.  A straight vote between Remain or Leave.

 

In the event of Remain winning, we revoke article 50, and business as normal.

 

In the event of Leave winning, we look at the results of Part B of the vote, which would have been between accepting the negotiated deal (ie May’s deal), or going out with no deal.

 

This way we would get a better idea of the will of the people.

 

The Conservatives could then deliver whatever was chosen, whilst hiding behind it being the “will of the people”. 

 

If it delivered brexit, the spectre of the Brexit party taking votes from them would disappear, as the Brexit party itself would have no purpose.

 

If it delivered remain, then they would get a kicking at the next few elections. However, they can claim they are being democratic. Also, they should note from the Euro elections just gone that Labour also lose votes to the Brexit party. 

 

Conservative MPs are running scared. Historically because they were scared of a UKIP taking some of their votes they pandered to them, and look where it got them. They have taken an irritant, and nurtured it into a monster, now under a different name. They’ve brought this on themselves. Their only hope is to step back and let someone else have a go. The last thing they want is a General Election, so they won’t do that. But what about letting the people decide?  There may be enough Conservative MPs to combine with most Labour MPs and others to force through a referendum on the lines I outlined above. A referendum whose result would at least be clear, and would show the UK’s true feelings. It would also enable the Conservatives to claim they are the good guys, whatever the result.