Consequences of Brexit [part 7] Read first post before posting

[Top Cats Hat 10]

2 minutes ago, whiteowl said:

But remember the non-event of the millienium bug ? Nothing happened then, this is just the same.... 😉 (sarcasm in case anyone wasn't sure - I earnt a fortune preparing for that😀😀)

The minellium bug is often cited by Brexiteers as ‘proof’ that a no deal Brexit will not be a total economic and social disaster.

 

The big flaw in that comparison is that software engineers didn’t predict doom and destruction, they simply said ‘we don’t know’ what may happen as a result of the date change. With a no deal Brexit, EVERY single credible economic forecaster is saying that it will be a disaster.

[L00b 441]

42 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

The minellium bug is often cited by Brexiteers as ‘proof’ that a no deal Brexit will not be a total economic and social disaster.

 

The big flaw in that comparison is that software engineers didn’t predict doom and destruction, they simply said ‘we don’t know’ what may happen as a result of the date change. With a no deal Brexit, EVERY single credible economic forecaster is saying that it will be a disaster.

Respectfully, I disagree: in very many instances, software engineers could clearly and easily predict a systemic failure, for computer systems with legacy clocks/BIOS 'resetting' to 1900 the second after 23:59:59 on 31/12/99.

 

This is no different to those of us warning about certain irremediable Brexit consequences, clearly and easily predictable through automatic operation of law: exit the jurisdiction of the TEU = cease to fulfil legal tests/conditions for the right to do this/that/the other = illegal to continue doing this/that/the other as of 00:00:01 on 01/11/19 = corresponding activity/task/act simply stops outright, either immediately (where automated) or gradually very short-term (where manual).

 

The drinking water/chemicals thing is just a likely ripple effect, a likely cascading consequence, amongst so many others. Not a direct one like the principle explained above.

 

To contrast, e.g. a US owner of EU trademark rights currently represented by a UK attorney, ceases to be represented for those EU rights overnight on 1st November 2019. That's a direct and irremediable consequence.

 

Some of the ripple effects of it (simpler ones to explain) are that the US rights owner then has to appoint an EU27 attorney (loss of business for UK profession) and, if they don't (for any reason, but say lack of knowledge/notice/understanding), a later challenge to those rights that goes undefended (no notice of the challenge sent out, in the absence of an EU representative of record) could see the US owner lose those rights.

Edited July 22, 2019 by L00b

[Lockdoctor 10]

49 minutes ago, whiteowl said:

But remember the non-event of the millienium bug ? Nothing happened then, this is just the same.... 😉 (sarcasm in case anyone wasn't sure - I earnt a fortune preparing for that😀😀)

Nothing bad also didn't happen after the UK didn't sign up to the Euro currency.  At the time there was a lot of scaremongering predicting doom and gloom if our country didn't adopt the Euro and do away with our own Pound.

[Pettytom 1]

2 minutes ago, Lockdoctor said:

Nothing bad also didn't happen after the UK didn't sign up to the Euro currency.  At the time there was a lot of scaremongering predicting doom and gloom if our country didn't adopt the Euro and do away with our own Pound.

Was there? 

 

I cant remember any.

 

Could  you possibly refresh my memory?

[Top Cats Hat 10]

9 minutes ago, Lockdoctor said:

At the time there was a lot of scaremongering predicting doom and gloom if our country didn't adopt the Euro and do away with our own Pound.

Was there?

 

Are you sure about that?

[melthebell 863]

58 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

The minellium bug is often cited by Brexiteers as ‘proof’ that a no deal Brexit will not be a total economic and social disaster.

 

The big flaw in that comparison is that software engineers didn’t predict doom and destruction, they simply said ‘we don’t know’ what may happen as a result of the date change. With a no deal Brexit, EVERY single credible economic forecaster is saying that it will be a disaster.

nah the difference is...we didnt vote for the millenium bug, it was an accident waiting to happen, in this case if anything DOES happen, we voted and brought it upon ourselves....stupidity

[melthebell 863]

18 minutes ago, Lockdoctor said:

Nothing bad also didn't happen after the UK didn't sign up to the Euro currency.  At the time there was a lot of scaremongering predicting doom and gloom if our country didn't adopt the Euro and do away with our own Pound.

funnily enough its wiki page states

Some believe that removing the UK's ability to set its own interest rates would have detrimental effects on its economy. One argument is that currency flexibility is a vital tool and that the sharp devaluation of sterling in 2008 was just what Britain needed to rebalance its economy.^[31] Another objection is that many continental European governments have large unfunded pension liabilities. They fear that if Britain adopts the euro, these liabilities could put a debt burden on the British taxpayer,^[32] though others have dismissed this argument as spurious.^[33] One of the underlying issues that stand in the way of monetary union is the structural difference between the UK housing market and those of many continental European countries.^[34]

The entry of the UK into the eurozone would have likely resulted in increased trade with the other members of the eurozone.^[35] It could also have had a stabilising effect on the stock market prices in the UK.^[36] A simulation of the entry in 1999 indicated that it would have had an overall positive, though small, long term effect on the UK's GDP if the entry had been made with the rate of exchange of the pound to the euro at that time. With a lower rate of exchange, the entry would have had more clearly a positive effect on the UK's GDP.^[37] A 2009 study about the effect of an entry in the coming years claimed that the effect would likely be positive, improving the stability for the UK economy

 

sounds bad

[retep 68]

18 minutes ago, Lockdoctor said:

Nothing bad also didn't happen after the UK didn't sign up to the Euro currency.  At the time there was a lot of scaremongering predicting doom and gloom if our country didn't adopt the Euro and do away with our own Pound.

Seems about right,

 

"Economic policy

Britain and the euro: what if we'd joined?"

https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2013/jun/02/britain-euro-what-if-joined

[Longcol 604]

Hmmmmm - so Boris' invocation of the "can do" spirit was aimed at solving the Irish border issue.

 

“If they could use hand-knitted computer code to make a frictionless re-entry to Earth’s atmosphere in 1969, we can solve the problem of frictionless trade at the Northern Irish border,”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/22/boris-johnson-can-do-spirit-solve-problem-irish-border

 

Presumably this means either a zip wire or a garden bridge between Belfast and Dublin then.

[Longcol 604]

6 minutes ago, retep said:

Seems about right,

 

"Economic policy

Britain and the euro: what if we'd joined?"

https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2013/jun/02/britain-euro-what-if-joined

Lol - using an article when the £ was far higher against the euro than it is today -  going to be parity before too long (and against the dollar).

[melthebell 863]

9 minutes ago, retep said:

Seems about right,

 

"Economic policy

Britain and the euro: what if we'd joined?"

https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2013/jun/02/britain-euro-what-if-joined

sigh, i stopped reading at undemocratic.....how can it be undemocratic if you choose to join the EU (and take on board their rules?) or how is it undemocratic when you can choose NOT to accept it and keep your own form of currency like we did?

[retep 68]

3 minutes ago, melthebell said:

sigh, i stopped reading at undemocratic.....how can it be undemocratic if you choose to join the EU (and take on board their rules?) or how is it undemocratic when you can choose NOT to accept it and keep your own form of currency like we did?

It's in the lefty's favourite paper it must be true.