Consequences of Brexit [part 7] Read first post before posting

[L00b 441]

49 minutes ago, crookesjoe said:

Genuine question, what would be your criteria for the pound to have 'fallen below the euro or dollar'?

 

Also, still waiting to hear which UK stocks you have sold and reinvested in 'European stocks'?

No deal isn't fully priced-in by markets yet, by a long shot. The extent of the existing pricing-in is hinged upon the EU's unilateral contingency policies (some flights still allowed, some lorries still allowed, etc.)

 

That's because traders don't practice law, never mind EU law, and so cannot really appreciate the ramifications of no-deal for the parties, even short-term. Appreciating the full ramifications is simply impossible. But appreciating the root causes of these ramifications (jurisdictional exit and redundancy across the board, as legal concepts) gives a very good insight about their scale, both immediate and eventual.

Edited July 11, 2019 by L00b

[L00b 441]

58 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

While Johnson and Hunt are banging on about the great post-Brexit business opportunities, Richard Branson is warning of a collapse of sterling in the case of no deal and the closure of many businesses. He warns that if the pound falls to parity with the dollar Virgin will have to pull out of the UK.

 

No doubt the usual suspects will be shouting ‘Project Fear’.

Project Fear long started morphing into reality, but none so blind as those who refuse to see (or accept what they do see, as a price worth paying).

 

The latest casualty is BMW's Hams Hall plant in Birmingham, where they've now stopped making the X3's 4 cylindre engines, in anticipation of Brexit-caused rules of origin problems (today's FT).

Edited July 11, 2019 by L00b

[Chez2 10]

34 minutes ago, L00b said:

No deal isn't fully priced-in by markets yet, by a long shot. The extent of the existing pricing-in is hinged upon the EU's unilateral contingency policies (some flights still allowed, some lorries still allowed, etc.)

 

That's because traders don't practice law, never mind EU law, and so cannot really appreciate the ramifications of no-deal for the parties, even short-term. Appreciating the full ramifications is simply impossible. But appreciating the root causes of these ramifications (jurisdictional exit and redundancy across the board, as legal concepts) gives a very good insight about their scale, both immediate and eventual.

I see your point about traders not practicing law but business people SHOULD be more aware or laws and regulations. If not, how can they oppose any consultations affecting their industry? I'm in the waste industry but keep a watching brief on consultations and regulations affecting environment and waste. I also see how each EU country interprets the same regs and implements them. We in the UK are often our own worse enemy in that respect. It frustrates me how many people make decisions or statements that are not based on fact. I'm not talking about you here L00b, just having a bit of a rant.

[L00b 441]

3 hours ago, Chez2 said:

I see your point about traders not practicing law but business people SHOULD be more aware or laws and regulations. If not, how can they oppose any consultations affecting their industry? I'm in the waste industry but keep a watching brief on consultations and regulations affecting environment and waste. I also see how each EU country interprets the same regs and implements them. We in the UK are often our own worse enemy in that respect. It frustrates me how many people make decisions or statements that are not based on fact. I'm not talking about you here L00b, just having a bit of a rant.

Well, this one actually goes to the very heart of 'Brexit': if you take EU immigration into the UK under FoM, for example, the UK has never implemented any formal registration policies and procedures for EU27 immigrants, until the post-referendum EU Settlement Scheme started late last year.

 

There was never anything preventing the UK from putting such a registration system in place before. It was a national prerogative, and competence.

 

There was never anything preventing the UK from enforcing EU law, under which it is perfectly entitled to deport EU nationals still without a job and/or means of sustaining themselves within 3 or 4 months from arriving. Same again, it was a national prerogative, and competence.

 

Other EU member states have implemented these registration systems, and enforced evictions of destitute EU nationals, for decades.

 

The UK has been, and continues to be, its worst ennemy in that respect: in too many ways of business and non-business life, it has long been transposing EU law verbatim without an ounce of forethought about national advantage/preferences and, in others, completely ignored potential measures (the adoption of which would arguably be in the interests of national advantage/preferences) for the sake of penny-wise pound-foolish budgeting.

 

I understand your comment perfectly fine, Chez. I took the decision to brexode, not based on emotions, but on the fact of existing EU law and regs, which would cease to apply to UK-based professionals like me in the event of Brexit (any Brexit, with or without WA), and so would strip both the Sheffield firm I was co-directing until 2018, from 30-ish percent of its commercial activity, and me personally from my existing professional capacity to act for UK and foreign non-EU clients in Ireland and the EU.

 

That situation (100% certain commercial risk) continues to this day, and will occur (overnight, confirmed in writing by EU in March 2019) no-matter-what,  if as and when the UK brexits. I'd been warning about it since 2015.

 

On aggregate, nationwide, such services (UK-supplied IP services to UK and non-EU clients for EU IP rights in the EU) represent high single-digit £billions per year for UK firms. This is all being handed over to the EU27 competition (or EU27 subsidiaries of UK firms, so employing people and being taxed in EU27) on a plate, because they can't be supplied from the UK post-Brexit. Simple as.

 

That's known as a non-tarriff barrier btw, and goes to the heart of all my comments about the futility of an FTA between the UK and the EU: FTAs are for goods, not for services. The UK economy is 80+% services, the most profitables of which (financial, legal) are exported to, and contingent upon free and unfetterred access to, the Single Market.

 

 

 

Edited July 11, 2019 by L00b

[I1L2T3 10]

1 hour ago, crookesjoe said:

Genuine question, what would be your criteria for the pound to have 'fallen below the euro or dollar'?

 

Also, still waiting to hear which UK stocks you have sold and reinvested in 'European stocks'?

 

 

One criteria is parity, but the same strategy holds true for any exchange rate you believe to be detrimental to you. I got some sterling into Euro when the rate was in 1.30s in 2016, quite a chunk in the 1.15-1.20 range after the referendum. And aside from that pot I make monthly payments to my kids at the current rate - I take the hit on that because I want to keep the cash pot intact. Also have some money in other currencies and some other investments.

 

I don’t directly invest in European stocks. Don’t know where you got that from.

[Pettytom 1]

5 hours ago, crookesjoe said:

I asked him to specify which investments he took out of the UK, to reinvest into 'European'stock.

 

As for the rest  of your post, it's impressive you already know the terms and agreements of a Brexit which hasn't even happened yet.

Maybe you should have read my post with more care. I said that I had moved my investments from UK stocks into European, American and Far Eastern stocks. I’ve moved from 50% UK stocks and 50% spread across other sectors  to roughy 33% in each of the sectors above and nothing in UK stocks.

 

If you think I’m discussing specific investments with a stranger on the internet, then you are out of luck.

 

The UK is pretty much uninvestable at the moment.

[ANGELFIRE1 10]

19 hours ago, L00b said:

Do you really expect cultists like Angelfire to believe and behave any differently?

 

They're beyond debate, you're wasting your time.

 

Let them have their Brexit. Let them blame the EU, remoaners, MPs, civil servants, furreiners, anybody else but themselves. Let them live their folly to bare supermarkets and pharmacy shelves, bone-picked NHS services and precarity for all.

 

They're not going to learn anything before then. And if you don't let them learn through those first-hand experiences, you've got a generation of Brexit-related social and political strife in front of you.

 

The UK needs its walk in the wild, and to give its head a severe wobble. The EU will stand ready to welcome you back and lend a hand afterwards.

 

Ha ha ha ha ha, more doom and gloom from another democracy denying remoaner, don't you just love them for their slavish love of the corrupt EU and its unelected leaders.

 

Angel1

[ANGELFIRE1 10]

19 hours ago, Top Cats Hat said:

Maybe sooner than you think.

 

Brexit has run out of steam. The people don’t want it, Parliament doesn’t want it, the EU doesn’t want it, Scotland doesn’t want it, Ireland doesn’t want it, Wales doesn’t want it and the two candidates to be our next Prime Minister are clueless as to how to get it and have basically said that they will try and force it to happen by undermining our democratic system.

 

When an extension is granted in October, the discussion will then turn to ‘how do we get ourselves out of this mess?’ It will either be ended by the present government revoking Article 50 or more likely, a general election won by Labour on a Remain ticket. I doubt a second referendum will ever happen.

 

 

 

 

After last evenings Panorama on the Labour Party and some of its Leaders, including St Jeremy as to their attitude to  anti-Semitism, the Labour Party will be lucky to survive never mind win a General Election. Talking about Unicorns ------

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1151868/labour-party-antisemitism-jeremy-corbyn-bbc-panorama-documentary

 

Angel1.

[Top Cats Hat 10]

1 hour ago, ANGELFIRE1 said:

the Labour Party will be lucky to survive never mind win a General Election.

You wish!

 

This whole thing will hit the buffers when the Equality and Human Rights Commission reports.

 

Unlike the Daily Express, the BBC, right wing Labour MP’s, and Zionists, both here and in Israel, the EHRC has no political axe to grind and will report that the Labour Party’s disciplinary procedures are chaotic and could be more transparent but the party itself is not antisemitic.

 

One day those who have used antisemitism as a weapon against their political opponents will be called to account. 😡

[tzijlstra 11]

11 hours ago, ANGELFIRE1 said:

Ha ha ha ha ha, more doom and gloom from another democracy denying remoaner, don't you just love them for their slavish love of the corrupt EU and its unelected leaders.

 

Angel1

The dumbness of this ‘unelected leaders’ thing is becoming too rich. Can you tell me when you last voted for a prime minister Angelfire? Or a foreign secretary? Or an ambassador to the US? 

 

You can’t? Then stop perpetuating this nonsense lie.

[L00b 441]

14 hours ago, ANGELFIRE1 said:

Ha ha ha ha ha, more doom and gloom from another democracy denying remoaner, don't you just love them for their slavish love of the corrupt EU and its unelected leaders.

 

Angel1

Good cultist, Angelfire, attaboy 

 

Now go get your treat from that nice German lady over there. She's the candidate President of the EU Commission up for election by the European Parliament. You know, that one which you elected a Brexit Party MEP for last month.

Edited July 12, 2019 by L00b

[ANGELFIRE1 10]

3 hours ago, tzijlstra said:

The dumbness of this ‘unelected leaders’ thing is becoming too rich. Can you tell me when you last voted for a prime minister Angelfire? Or a foreign secretary? Or an ambassador to the US? 

 

You can’t? Then stop perpetuating this nonsense lie.

There are 27 EU commissioners who are in office on 20 thousand euros a month who have been appointed and not directly voted for. This is not a lie but fact. I expect you to withdraw your lie accusation asap.

 

Angel1.