Consequences of Brexit [part 7] Read first post before posting

[bendix 10]

32 minutes ago, woodview said:

Osborne article from BBC news at the time:

Publishing Treasury analysis , he said a Leave vote would cause an "immediate and profound" economic shock, with growth between 3% and 6% lower.

 

Did that happen? No.

I think it's simply unbelievable that so many so called left wingers can claim a Tory run Remain campaign contained no lies. It simply is not credible.

It contained no lies at all.  Some commentators made forecasts, but how can a forecast be a lie?  That's ridiculous.  A lie is saying 70 million turks will join the EU.  A lie is pulling out buses claiming £350m a week will go to the NHS.

 

Osborne was right to say there would be an immediate and profound shock on a Leave vote.  There was.  The pound slumped drastically and has never recovered.  This has made imports costs higher and has impacted inflation.

 

As for a more profound impact:  In 2016 the UK had one of the fastest growth rates in the EU.  Now we are close to bottom of the pack.

 

Edit:  Blimey, it's not often TCH and I agree so vehemently our posts are almost identical   🙂

Edited March 28, 2019 by bendix

[Justin Smith 10]

42 minutes ago, woodview said:

Osborne article from BBC news at the time:

Publishing Treasury analysis , he said a Leave vote would cause an "immediate and profound" economic shock, with growth between 3% and 6% lower.

 

Did that happen? No.

I think it's simply unbelievable that so many so called left wingers can claim a Tory run Remain campaign contained no lies. It simply is not credible.

That report is entitled "the immediate economic impact of leaving the EU. We haven`t actually left yet, but what we have done is enough.

 

Project Fear, does not exist, apparently :

 

Edited March 28, 2019 by Justin Smith

[Obelix 11]

So we are looking at 2% lower growth, and about 6% fall in currency...

Doesnt sound too far off the lower end of Osbournes predicitons TBH

[melthebell 863]

15 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

It's important to differentiate between exaggeration and highly opinionated comment and outright lies.

 

All sides in any argument tend to exaggerate forecasts and predictions to help their case. These may be stretching the truth but they aren't actually lies. Even Osborne's prediction of an economic shock on news of the result was partly true as Sterling took a hit within minutes of the Sunderland declaration.  It has never recovered from this hit and in fact rises with news that Brexit is less likely to happen and falls again with pro-Brexit news so the general point Osborne was making, that even the process of the UK leaving the EU would be bad for the economy, was true.

 

On the other hand, 'Turkey is joining the EU' and 'Leaving the EU will mean £350 million a week will be saved' were both out and out lies which were known to be lies by the people who were responsible for them.

 

That is why the BBC was censured after the referendum campaign for repeatedly allowing demonstrable lies to go unchallenged in television and radio interviews when the journalists doing the interviews had the evidence at hand to show that they were being lied to.

James o Brian keeps mentioning brextremists like David Davis and lord snooty all over the media and never getting pulled up on their lies, and unicorn wishing

[Magilla 510]

1 hour ago, woodview said:

So, can you confirm the tories lied in their Remain campaign?

I'm not sure I can. Over egged, or just plain wrong... but outright lies... no, I can't say that.

 

I can't say the same for any of the leave campaigns, not least in regard to the racist and xenophobic parts which were self evident lies the moment they were spoken.

 

Edited March 28, 2019 by Magilla

[Top Cats Hat 10]

4 minutes ago, bendix said:

Edit:  Blimey, it's not often TCH and I agree so vehemently our posts are almost identical   🙂

To be fair, that is because what we are saying is so blatantly obvious.

 

I would go further and say that a highly partisan statement made on Newsnight by the Chancellor of the Exchequer to an above averagly educated and engaged audience is much more likely to be taken with a pinch of salt than a facebook ad featuring a graphic implying an 'invasion' of millions of Muslims flowing over the border into the EU from Turkey. Especially as these ads are targetted at users who aren't particularly engaged in the political process, and tend to view the world through shared news on social media.

 

So I would contend that not only did the Leave campaign tell the kind of outright lies which were simply not part of the Remain campaign but the methods used to propagate those lies were way more targetted and influential than any exaggerations of the Remain side. And that is leaving aside the whole question of why a lot of this material came from sources outside the UK. If there is another referendum, we could do worse than what the Irish did during the abortion referendum which was to ask facebook to take down any facebook pages which were both attempting to influence the vote and were based outside Ireland.

 

 

[Magilla 510]

17 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

So I would contend that not only did the Leave campaign tell the kind of outright lies which were simply not part of the Remain campaign but the methods used to propagate those lies were way more targetted and influential than any exaggerations of the Remain side.

Agree entirely. It's so obvious that whenever I hear "they both lied" I'm always left wondering exactly who they're trying to convince

[woodview 10]

1 hour ago, Justin Smith said:

That report is entitled "the immediate economic impact of leaving the EU. We haven`t actually left yet, but what we have done is enough.

 

Project Fear, does not exist, apparently :

 

Ok, lets look at that handy graph. Osborne said growth would be between 3% and 6% lower immediately following a Leave vote. The vertical line shows the date of the referendum. Growth stayed stwady for about 9 months, then fell by 1% over the course of the whole following year.

That is nothing like what he said.

Also, what happened to his emergency budget, the housing market slump?

Amazing how many tory apologists suddenly materialise and can defend clear misrepresentation.

Nearly everybody knows they both lied. If you want to defend them, then that's your call. Maybe you'll begin to defend everything else they say and be complete tory boys before too long.

1 hour ago, Magilla said:

I'm not sure I can. Over egged, or just plain wrong... but outright lies... no, I can't say that.

 

 

I knew you wouldn't. You should stop wearing your Osborne t-shirt though. Maybe just keep it in a drawer, safe.

[bendix 10]

Oh come on woodview.  You're better than this.   I dont agree with much of what you post, but respect you holding solid views.  BUT,  how can a forecast which doesn't turn out to be 100%  accurate (while being directionally correct) be a lie?  It's just nonsense.  

 

If I say Leeds will beat the Blades to promotion and they don't, is that a lie?   Your position here is ridiculous.

 

 

 

[Top Cats Hat 10]

12 minutes ago, Magilla said:

Agree entirely. It's so obvious that whenever I hear "they both lied" I'm always left wondering exactly who they're trying to convince

What will be interesting if there is another referendum, will be the reaction of the various leave campaigns to any restrictions on fake news on social media or outside influence.

 

Despite the various Leave campaigns claiming that fake news and external influences didn't help the Leave vote, I bet any complaints and challenges to any restrictions will come from Leave campaigns probably backed by Aaron Banks or Nigel Farage.

[melthebell 863]

15 minutes ago, bendix said:

Oh come on woodview.  You're better than this.   I dont agree with much of what you post, but respect you holding solid views.  BUT,  how can a forecast which doesn't turn out to be 100%  accurate (while being directionally correct) be a lie?  It's just nonsense.  

 

If I say Leeds will beat the Blades to promotion and they don't, is that a lie?   Your position here is ridiculous.

 

 

 

Typical brextremist,  arguing the toss just so they don't have to admit Brexit is unworkable and a complete shambles

Edited March 28, 2019 by melthebell

[apelike 10]

40 minutes ago, woodview said:

Ok, lets look at that handy graph. Osborne said growth would be between 3% and 6% lower immediately following a Leave vote. The vertical line shows the date of the referendum. Growth stayed stwady for about 9 months, then fell by 1% over the course of the whole following year.

That is nothing like what he said.

Also, what happened to his emergency budget, the housing market slump?

Or that there would be an immediate recession, or a rise in unemployment, or tax rises, or that families would be 4,300 a year worse off, or that immigration officers would be kicked out of France and immigration camps would be setup in Dover, or that Clegg stated that a EU army was pure fantasy, or that the stock market would collapse.

 

Many dodgy things were said on both sides and the one people remember most was the Bus and the 350 M, which using the TCH definition was in fact an exaggeration and a misuse of statistics as it did not take into account the rebate.

 

27 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

What will be interesting if there is another referendum, will be the reaction of the various leave campaigns to any restrictions on fake news on social media or outside influence.

That won't happen in either case so nothing to worry about.

Edited March 28, 2019 by apelike