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Consequences of Brexit [part 7] Read first post before posting

mort

 Let me make this perfectly clear - any personal attacks will get you a suspension. The moderating team is not going to continually issue warnings. If you cannot remain civil and post within forum rules then do not bother to contribute. 

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4 minutes ago, apelike said:

The 2 million new voters are also not automatically guaranteed to vote remain 

No they are not, but 73%-75% of them are and if a similar number turned out ie. 72% then 0.74 x 0.72 x 2,000,000 is over one million more leave voters than in 2016.

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1 minute ago, Top Cats Hat said:

No they are not, but 73%-75% of them are and if a similar number turned out ie. 72% then 0.74 x 0.72 x 2,000,000 is over one million more leave voters than in 2016.

73%-75% of them is just a best hopeful guess thats all.

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9 minutes ago, apelike said:

73%-75% of them is just a best hopeful guess thats all.

Somewhere between 73% and 75% of 18-24 year olds voted Leave in 2016.

 

In reality, given the kick off about 16 year olds not being allowed to vote in the first referendum, I’d say that was the minimum and wouldn’t be surprised if it wouldn’t be closer to 80%.

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43 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

Well who on earth else was it for?

 

I don't remember anyone other than €urosceptics calling for a referendum.  Like my 'F1 moving to Sky' poll, only people interested in Formula One bothered voting on it. 

 

Why do you think that the majority of people who didn't vote in 2016 were remain supporters? Unless that referendum was binding and/or compulsory, as a democratic exercise it was pretty pointless.

Well who on earth else was it for ?  The entire population that were eligible to vote , that's who

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

Somewhere between 73% and 75% of 18-24 year olds voted Leave in 2016.

Do you mean 73-75% of 18-24 year olds that were bothered to turnout and vote, also given the fact that age is never recorded.

 

But...  given that data with around a 64% turnout in the 18-24 age group with 71% of them voting remain it works out at around 45.44%.

Edited by apelike

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11 minutes ago, hackey lad said:

Well who on earth else was it for ?  The entire population that were eligible to vote , that's who

Was the entire population calling for a referendum? Of course they weren’t. Only those who wanted to leave the EU wanted a referendum so Leave supporters were much more likely to participate.

 

That’s why as a measurement of popular support for Brexit it is fundamentally flawed.

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No the entire population were not calling for a referendum I agree but given they had a chance to vote in it ,why did the remain voters not bother ? Did they think it was a foregone conclusion ?

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2 hours ago, Car Boot said:

The polls put Remain on 55 and Leave on 45 per cent just before the vote. How did that work out for you?

We were supposed to leave last month.  How did that work out?

 

No one is disputing the 2016 result.  The leavers are losing the argument on actually implementing leaving.  The referendum result doesn't matter anymore.

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1 minute ago, hackey lad said:

No the entire population were not calling for a referendum I agree but given they had a chance to vote in it ,why did the remain voters not bother ? Did they think it was a foregone conclusion ?

Some did but many thought that it was purely for the benefit of the Tory Party’s threat from UKIP and as it wasn’t binding, didn’t see that it really had much to do with them.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, ez8004 said:

No one is disputing the 2016 result.  The leavers are losing the argument on actually implementing leaving.  The referendum result doesn't matter anymore.

Hang on ..you were always disputing the result and saying because it was advisory it didnt count. You also predicted that another referendum would take place last December.

 

5 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

Some did but many thought that it was purely for the benefit of the Tory Party’s threat from UKIP and as it wasn’t binding, didn’t see that it really had much to do with them.

Strange as the non binding bit didnt enter into the fray until after the referendum, not discounting also that Cameron also promised the result would be implemented.

Edited by apelike

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, apelike said:

Hang on ..you were always disputing the result and saying because it was advisory it didnt count. You also predicted that another referendum would take place last December.

No, I stated the referendum was advisory, which it was and that the government was under no legal obligation to fufill leaving the EU even if Leave won, which again it wasn't.  These are actually facts believe it or not.

 

My prediction of have a second referendum in December was simply because I did not see leaving on the 29th March as ever being likely.  Which surprise surprise, we didn't.  I thought the only way to not leave was a second vote.  What I did not forsee was Parliament getting choked up in the way it has.  So, my overall end point still stands, we are still in the EU after 29th March. 

Edited by ez8004

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8 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

Some did but many thought that it was purely for the benefit of the Tory Party’s threat from UKIP and as it wasn’t binding, didn’t see that it really had much to do with them.

Right , so they didn't bother to vote and now they are crying foul .  Glad you cleared that up .

 

10 minutes ago, ez8004 said:

We were supposed to leave last month.  How did that work out?

 

No one is disputing the 2016 result.  The leavers are losing the argument on actually implementing leaving.  The referendum result doesn't matter anymore.

Top Cats Hat is .

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