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Consequences of Brexit [part 7] Read first post before posting

mort

 Let me make this perfectly clear - any personal attacks will get you a suspension. The moderating team is not going to continually issue warnings. If you cannot remain civil and post within forum rules then do not bother to contribute. 

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4 hours ago, L00b said:

A measured response, but dodging the issue: do you have an opinion about proroguing Parliament to get Brexit through (assuming Johnson isn't bluffing) , or about the 44%|54% who approve of the notion?

 

(we can keep Carney's massive QE effort in the week that followed the 2016 ref and it's effect on UK plc for another time, I'm assuming you're also familiar with that one?)

I believe that proroguing Parliament to be wrong. I also believe that our elected MPs are also wrong for delaying, or even thwarting Brexit. I think the only poll that matters is the taken by the country in 2016.

Having written to my MP ( my constituency voted 66% in favour of leave - estimate) asking why he has consistently voted against Brexit, only to be told 'it's complicated' and that he knows better than his uneducated constituents, I have explained that although I don't agree with him, I respect his right, as our representative, to vote according to his conscience, and that he must also respect mine come the next GE.k

 

As for the BofE QE, I understand that prior to the referendum, they had already undertaken £375 billion of assets on, and that in August 2016 they added another £70 billion, hardly a large scale increase to an already massive, long established program.

 

Tell me, what was the scale of QE implemented by the ECB during that period?

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16 hours ago, convert said:

Well it looks like (according to a recent poll), that 54% of people (who expressed an opinion other than 'don't know') support the suspension of Parliament, to get Brexit over and done with.

 

https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/The-Telegraph_August-2019-Tables.pdf

 

Page 87 for those interested.

EB3Rr7jXoAEJhnN?format=jpg&name=small"54% of women find me totally irresistible according to the Telegraph ..."

Edited by Mister Gee

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1 hour ago, convert said:

Having written to my MP ( my constituency voted 66% in favour of leave - estimate) asking why he has consistently voted against Brexit, only to be told 'it's complicated' and that he knows better than his uneducated constituents,

Your MP is not under any obligation to vote as you or any other individual constituent thinks that they should. Their only obligation is to do what they believe to be in their constituents’ best interests. Even if 66% of your constituency did vote leave, which leave voters should your MP represent? Those who want a Norway deal? Those who favour a Canada deal? A customs Union? A soft Brexit? A no deal Brexit?

 

The votes in Parliament were not in/out binary choices. They were votes on a variety of options and if there were problems with any of these options why on earth would an MP vote for them. It is not possible to please everyone, but here are many different versions of Brexit but only one version of Remain so supporting Remain is actually likely to be please most constituents.

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10 hours ago, convert said:

I believe that proroguing Parliament to be wrong. I also believe that our elected MPs are also wrong for delaying, or even thwarting Brexit. I think the only poll that matters is the taken by the country in 2016.

Having written to my MP ( my constituency voted 66% in favour of leave - estimate) asking why he has consistently voted against Brexit, only to be told 'it's complicated' and that he knows better than his uneducated constituents, I have explained that although I don't agree with him, I respect his right, as our representative, to vote according to his conscience, and that he must also respect mine come the next GE.k

 

As for the BofE QE, I understand that prior to the referendum, they had already undertaken £375 billion of assets on, and that in August 2016 they added another £70 billion, hardly a large scale increase to an already massive, long established program.

 

Tell me, what was the scale of QE implemented by the ECB during that period?

The QE implemented by the ECB in that period was in scale to the €zone, and for the exact same reason the BofE had pumped those £375bn into the UK economy: to mitigate the lingering effects of the 2008 GFC and reboot the economy.

 

The point is, the only reason the BofE slapped that extra 20% worth of QE on the existing, GFC-mitigating pile in August 2016, was to stave off  the post-referendum economic doldrums forecast by the Treasury, the BofE and just about every living and breathing economist short of the ERG's very own Minford.

 

Just like all that system risk analysis, rational planning and project management took care of the Y2K issue back in the late 90s, Carney's unilateral course of action worked. I remember very well what he got from the media and pundits, for his UK economy-saving trouble: nothing but scorn and more aggravation.

 

Good of you to acknowledge the representative role of an MP. Wish you'd exercise the same objectivity before choosing to post shameless Torygraph propaganda.

 

Not worth commenting about your belief that the 2016 referendum must be implemented, without the benefit of your rationale for Brexit.

Edited by L00b

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11 hours ago, convert said:

I believe that proroguing Parliament to be wrong. I also believe that our elected MPs are also wrong for delaying, or even thwarting Brexit. I think the only poll that matters is the taken by the country in 2016.

Having written to my MP ( my constituency voted 66% in favour of leave - estimate) asking why he has consistently voted against Brexit, only to be told 'it's complicated' and that he knows better than his uneducated constituents, I have explained that although I don't agree with him, I respect his right, as our representative, to vote according to his conscience, and that he must also respect mine come the next GE.k

 

As for the BofE QE, I understand that prior to the referendum, they had already undertaken £375 billion of assets on, and that in August 2016 they added another £70 billion, hardly a large scale increase to an already massive, long established program.

 

Tell me, what was the scale of QE implemented by the ECB during that period?

As already stated your MP has absolutely no obligation to vote the same way as you or the majority of constituents. If you do not understand that then you really don’t know how our democracy works. 

 

As for quantitive easing, the Bank of England used £435bn on the programme. However, QE was not the only mechanism used to stimulate the economy, crushing interest rates down to 0.5% simultaneously was also needed. If you don’t understand that, then you really don’t know what really happened to our country’s economy.  

Edited by Albert the Cat

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9 hours ago, Top Cats Hat said:

Your MP is not under any obligation to vote as you or any other individual constituent thinks that they should. Their only obligation is to do what they believe to be in their constituents’ best interests. Even if 66% of your constituency did vote leave, which leave voters should your MP represent? Those who want a Norway deal? Those who favour a Canada deal? A customs Union? A soft Brexit? A no deal Brexit?

 

The votes in Parliament were not in/out binary choices. They were votes on a variety of options and if there were problems with any of these options why on earth would an MP vote for them. It is not possible to please everyone, but here are many different versions of Brexit but only one version of Remain so supporting Remain is actually likely to be please most constituents.

I never said he was, however at the next GE he may regret it, he may not (red tie on a donkey syndrome)

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1 hour ago, Albert the Cat said:

As already stated your MP has absolutely no obligation to vote the same way as you or the majority of constituents. If you do not understand that then you really don’t know how our democracy works. 

 

As for quantitive easing, the Bank of England used £435bn on the programme. However, QE was not the only mechanism used to stimulate the economy, crushing interest rates down to 0.5% simultaneously was also needed. If you don’t understand that, then you really don’t know what really happened to our country’s economy.  

Please re read my OP, I perfecly  understand representative democracy.

Funny thoogh, I thought the base rate was already @ 0.5% and had been since  March 2009. There was a base rate cut made in August 2016 of 0.25% though, which lasted until Nov 2017 when the base rate was increased back up to 0.5%, then in Aug 2018 it was raised a further 0.25%.

 

Please try and get your numbers correct, I know it's difficult for 48% of the country...

 

Source https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/Bank-Rate.asp

 

 

Edited by convert

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7 hours ago, convert said:

Well it looks like (according to a recent poll), that 54% of people (who expressed an opinion other than 'don't know') support the suspension of Parliament, to get Brexit over and done with.

A commentator on Newsnight was just saying that there is a lot of anger among polling organisations tonight about how the Telegraph’s dishonest use of this poll, so well done you for knowingly helping to spread fake news. 👍

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27 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

A commentator on Newsnight was just saying that there is a lot of anger among polling organisations tonight about how the Telegraph’s dishonest use of this poll, so well done you for knowingly helping to spread fake news. 👍

I'd consider the vote to be 44% in favour, 37% against, and 19% abtaining.

 

However I know that remainers like to insist that those not voting against them MUST be for them (as you yourself have done may time sin this thread).
Much fairer to exclude those with no opinion, and look at those who actually expressed one.

 

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48 minutes ago, convert said:

Much fairer to exclude those with no opinion, and look at those who actually expressed one.

Rubbish!

 

This was not a referendum, it was a poll commissioned by a newspaper. The results of this poll were represented in that newspaper as 54% of the public support the idea of proroguing Parliament to achieve Brexit.

 

Not only is this completely untrue but common sense says that it can’t possibly be true. If less than half the population support Brexit how on earth can more than half of the population support undermining Parliament to achieve it? Repeated polls show that support for Brexit is somewhere between 42-44% so there could never be any majority for a hard Brexit by proroguing Parliament (that assumes that virtually no Remainers would support the idea)

 

Further to this is the assumption that all Leave voters would support a no deal exit. Again, repeated polls show that only 50-60% of Leave supporters are in favour of a no-deal exit. So at best, only 60% of the 44% of Leave supporters would favour proroguing Parliament to allow a no-deal exit which equates to about 26% of the public. Without even looking at the figures behind the Telegraph poll, it is clear that the claim that 54% of the population support Johnson’s attempt to force a no-deal through is completely untrue and in fact the real number is likely to be less than half of that figure.

 

Once again, the Leave campaign is lying to us about the amount of support it has.

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15 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

Rubbish!

 

This was not a referendum, it was a poll commissioned by a newspaper. The results of this poll were represented in that newspaper as 54% of the public support the idea of proroguing Parliament to achieve Brexit.

 

Not only is this completely untrue but common sense says that it can’t possibly be true. If less than half the population support Brexit how on earth can more than half of the population support undermining Parliament to achieve it? Repeated polls show that support for Brexit is somewhere between 42-44% so there could never be any majority for a hard Brexit by proroguing Parliament (that assumes that virtually no Remainers would support the idea)

 

Further to this is the assumption that all Leave voters would support a no deal exit. Again, repeated polls show that only 50-60% of Leave supporters are in favour of a no-deal exit. So at best, only 60% of the 44% of Leave supporters would favour proroguing Parliament to allow a no-deal exit which equates to about 26% of the public. Without even looking at the figures behind the Telegraph poll, it is clear that the claim that 54% of the population support Johnson’s attempt to force a no-deal through is completely untrue and in fact the real number is likely to be less than half of that figure.

 

Once again, the Leave campaign is lying to us about the amount of support it has.

The fgure quoted by the Telegraph, of 54% was actually from the comres poll.

 

However let's take the figure of 44% and apply it to a different situation:-

We're planning a works meal out, with the choice of Indian or Chinese. 44% say Indian, 39% say Chinese, 19% aren't bothered either way. Which quisine suits the most people?

 

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2 minutes ago, convert said:

The fgure quoted by the Telegraph, of 54% was actually from the comres poll.

 

However let's take the figure of 44% and apply it to a different situation:-

We're planning a works meal out, with the choice of Indian or Chinese. 44% say Indian, 39% say Chinese, 19% aren't bothered either way. Which quisine suits the most people?

 

Chinese, but then trying to claim that the majority of people at your meal preferred Chinese is a big fat lie.

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