Consequences of Brexit [part 7] Read first post before posting

[tinfoilhat 11]

1 hour ago, Voice of reason said:

I mean terms of taking note of the result in terms of leave or remain parties. If remain parties have secured a majority of the vote, then a rethink or more compromise is needed.

Will the tories be a remain party after the 7th June? I doubt it, quite opposite. Labour? Your guess is as good as mine. 

[Voice of reason 0]

51 minutes ago, tinfoilhat said:

Will the tories be a remain party after the 7th June? I doubt it, quite opposite. Labour? Your guess is as good as mine. 

Who knows. But the 'Remain Party' could have been formed specifically for the purpose to counter the Brexit Party and form a de-facto referendum.

[tzijlstra 11]

Don't know if this was reported before in the thread - but just as awareness really for those who think the EU is falling apart and Nexit/Frexit/Grexit whatever else is on the horizon: In the Netherlands the two pro-Nexit/anti-EU parties PVV and FVD lost in the exit-polls, pro-EU parties gained seats. The protest-vote that was overwhelming in recent provincial elections had suggested that PVV/FVD were set for major gains, the opposite happened.

 

One analyst suggests that the key-reason is that PVV and in particular FVD were very clear protest signals and that it mobilised the pro-EU crowd to make sure a different noise was heard in the European elections. This was signified by the highest turnout for a European Election since 1989.
 

Another interesting element is that Frans Timmermans' party (PVDA (Dutch Labour)) all of a sudden saw a surge, this is most definitely linked to the fact that he campaigned for a pro-EU agenda in the Netherlands AND for a stronger federalisation.

The UK elections don't have an exit poll, but I suspect a very sharp increase for Greens and LibDems is on the horizon, as the ardent Remain voters will have ensured a trip to the booths yesterday. Similarly a rise for Brexit Party will happen as the ardent Brexiteers swing allegiance from Tory to Farage.

[L00b 441]

10 minutes ago, tzijlstra said:

(...)

The UK elections don't have an exit poll, but I suspect a very sharp increase for Greens and LibDems is on the horizon, as the ardent Remain voters will have ensured a trip to the booths yesterday. Similarly a rise for Brexit Party will happen as the ardent Brexiteers swing allegiance from Tory to Farage.

Have you seen this yet?

Edited May 24, 2019 by L00b

[Voice of reason 0]

11 minutes ago, tzijlstra said:

 

The UK elections don't have an exit poll, but I suspect a very sharp increase for Greens and LibDems is on the horizon, as the ardent Remain voters will have ensured a trip to the booths yesterday. Similarly a rise for Brexit Party will happen as the ardent Brexiteers swing allegiance from Tory to Farage.

On that basis, do you predict a Green / LibDem win?

The volume of Remain protests was well publicised and the equivalent UKIP marches had very low turnout.

I have a feeling Remain supporters are more vocal and Leave supporters are a silent 'majority' (or silent equivalent number)

[tzijlstra 11]

6 minutes ago, L00b said:

Have you seen this yet?

Nope! That suggests a very strong surge for Remain based on the correlations of turnout and leave-vote, thanks for that, very interesting!

1 minute ago, Voice of reason said:

On that basis, do you predict a Green / LibDem win?

The volume of Remain protests was well publicised and the equivalent UKIP marches had very low turnout.

I have a feeling Remain supporters are more vocal and Leave supporters are a silent 'majority' (or silent equivalent number)

I predict several (possibly dozens) MEPs will switch from Labour/Conservative/UKIP to Green/LibDem/Brexit Party as a result of this election, especially considering L00b's link.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see Conservative lose 20-30% of their previous vote, Labour will lose a bit, perhaps up to 10% of their previous vote, LibDem and Greens will gain about 25% and Brexit Party will take the remaining 10-20%.

This is of course a back of a coaster calculation and merely my prediction!

[Voice of reason 0]

5 minutes ago, tzijlstra said:

Nope! That suggests a very strong surge for Remain based on the correlations of turnout and leave-vote, thanks for that, very interesting!

I predict several (possibly dozens) MEPs will switch from Labour/Conservative/UKIP to Green/LibDem/Brexit Party as a result of this election, especially considering L00b's link.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see Conservative lose 20-30% of their previous vote, Labour will lose a bit, perhaps up to 10% of their previous vote, LibDem and Greens will gain about 25% and Brexit Party will take the remaining 10-20%.

This is of course a back of a coaster calculation and merely my prediction!

I agree Tories and Labour will slip lots. Be interesting to see the LibDem&Green Vs Brexit Party balance.

[geared 299]

The Brexit party polled at about 30-35%.

 

Although I can't see them doing well in Scotland or Northern Ireland, which is 9 seats combined.

Gibraltar's vote is included in the SW England constituency which may swing things down there as they voted nearly 100% remain.

 

The Brexit Party currently hold 14 seats (defectors from UKIP), and in 2014 Farage's party  took 24 seats, so to claim any kind of victory they need to improve on that number, which I'm not sure the polls support.

 

Edited May 24, 2019 by geared

[Penistone999 10]

Step up Boris . YOUR country needs you.

 

Time yo get a proper hardline Brexiteer in No10.

[tinfoilhat 11]

Just now, Penistone999 said:

Step up Boris . YOUR country needs you.

 

Time yo get a proper hardline Brexiteer in No10.

Unless they let grassroots Tories vote, Mps are far less likely to let this populist buffoon zip line  into number 10. 

 

But it's 2019 so who knows.

[Longcol 592]

43 minutes ago, Penistone999 said:

Step up Boris . YOUR country needs you.

 

Time yo get a proper hardline Brexiteer in No10.

The only thing Boris is hardline about is Boris for Prime Minister.

 

He clearly never intended to win the referendum - he only decided which side to go for in the last few months before it - the look on his and Gove's face the morning after said it all. What he really wanted was to make a decent fist of the leave campaign to make him the favourite among the Tory faithful to succeed Cameron around 2020.

[geared 299]

1 hour ago, Penistone999 said:

Step up Boris . YOUR country needs you.

 

Time yo get a proper hardline Brexiteer in No10.