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Consequences of Brexit [part 7] Read first post before posting

mort

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You are joking right?

 

There is no way that the EU will let you have a managed deal like that without staying in the EU.

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6 minutes ago, Lockdoctor said:

 The UK and EU would continue trading the same on an interim basis.  The UK and EU would cooperate on other matters until future individual agreements are reached.

Which, self evidently, isn't going to happen. There is no managed no-deal, it doesn't exist. It's a construct to confuse the gullible.

 

6 minutes ago, Lockdoctor said:

 

The legislation passed that is legally binding states the UK are leaving the EU  which by default makes the result of the democratic 2016 EU referendum legally binding.

Nonsense, the referendum isn't legally binding, regardless of any subsequent legislation.

3 minutes ago, Obelix said:

There is no way that the EU will let you have a managed deal like that without staying in the EU.

No chance whatsoever.

 

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10 minutes ago, Lockdoctor said:
 The UK and EU would continue trading the same on an interim basis.  The UK and EU would cooperate on other matters until future individual agreements are reached.

 

The legislation passed that is legally binding states the UK are leaving the EU  which by default makes the result of the democratic 2016 EU referendum legally binding.

The legislation doesn't have any impact on the status of the referendum.  It was enacted because of the results of the not legally binding referendum which itself remains not legally binding.

 

The UK and EU cannot continue trading on that basis legally without a treaty in place to do so, there is no sign that we would have such a treaty, or that such a treaty is even possible.  Certainly the EU would not accept any such treaty unless we continue to abide by a whole host of other things which we will have at that point left.

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13 minutes ago, Lockdoctor said:
 The UK and EU would continue trading the same on an interim basis.  The UK and EU would cooperate on other matters until future individual agreements are reached.

Explain how that works. Do we pay the £39bn for example?

8 minutes ago, Obelix said:

You are joking right?

 

There is no way that the EU will let you have a managed deal like that without staying in the EU.

It’s the latest desperate throw of the dice. 

 

A lie that fundamentalist Brexiters can cling to. 

 

It means nothing. 

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3 hours ago, ez8004 said:

Funny. The referendum wasn’t legally binding. How is that working out?

Not again! The referendum was not legally binding in itself but parliament then passed a law making the result of it legally binding.

 

Quote

You have always been battering on about how the majority should be acted upon. But when it comes to the House of Commons it doesn’t count? How much of a hypocrite do you want to be?

It does not count in the House of Commons for one simple reason, it was not a legally binding vote by them and as its them that decide on how to propose an amendment it places no obligation on this government. Its parliamentary legislation we are talking about here and not a referendum. Also as far as the EU are concerned any vote by parliament to make leaving without out a deal impossible or revoking A50 must be ratified in law by parliament before the EU will consider it.

Edited by apelike

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19 minutes ago, Obelix said:

You are joking right?

 

There is no way that the EU will let you have a managed deal like that without staying in the EU.

The EU has already enacted interim measures in case of no deal as part of its preparations, variously about flights, medicine and whatnot.

 

 But don’t anyone kid themselves: these interim measures have been enacted (I) because they’re useful to the EU27 and (II) will endure at the EU’s sole sufferance and collective  interest.

 

I suppose Brexiteers can call those a ‘managed no deal’, for saving face. They sure did not negotiated for them. Nor earned them.

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How can the PM even try to negotiate with the EU, now it's obvious that the Parliament has lost confidence in her? After all why should they waste their time negotiating with someone who doesn't the power to initiate any changes.

 

What I cannot understand is how can Parliament allow this situation to carry on. It seems to me that they need to either, initiate a no confidence motion in the government or accept May's deal.

 

To do nothing is the worst of all worlds.

 

Looking forward, the future does look bleak, how does any further government expect to govern a split country, where both sides are so entrenched that there's very little room to find a common ground between them.

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A confidence motion in the house hasnt time - even if it passes then there must be a 14 day wait to see if the Govt can get it reversed.

 

The options so far in no order of liklehood are for the Maybot to resign,  for the Queen to excercise reserve powers and dissolve Parliement, for A50 to be revoked, or for severe civil disorder.

 

Any bets which it's going to be?

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None of the above. Maybe a short extension and then leave with or without a deal. Severe civil disorder, really....?

Edited by apelike

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4 minutes ago, Obelix said:

A confidence motion in the house hasnt time - even if it passes then there must be a 14 day wait to see if the Govt can get it reversed.

 

The options so far in no order of liklehood are for the Maybot to resign,  for the Queen to excercise reserve powers and dissolve Parliement, for A50 to be revoked, or for severe civil disorder.

 

Any bets which it's going to be?

Isn't it 14 days for a successor government to be formed that will command the confidence of the house? One of the things that Parliament could insist upon to a new government, could be that parliament wants to be included with/take over any further negotiations. A quick read also confirms that the House of Commons could also call for a General Election.

 

Either way, this would be a significant change of circumstances that may sway the EU into accepting a longer extension. 

 

Personally I feel that that the only way out of this mess would be another General Election, although if that remained deadlocked with another hung parliament then god knows where we'd be.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, apelike said:

None of the above. Maybe a short extension and then leave with or without a deal. Severe civil disorder, really....?

Severe civil disorder is what the government has been preparing for. Plus mitigation for food, fuel and medicine supply disruption, plus a rise in the suicide rate.

 

You better believe it

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As far as I know after the Fixed Term Parliaments act, the govt then gets 14 days to assemble a reply to a no confidence motion. IT's obviously untested of course - being as it's forty years since the last successful time there was a confidence motion brought in the House.

 

At this point even if you promised a GE to the EU I still think they would say no. You might just be able to persuade them with a referendum promise but thats all - and theres no time to legislate that in place either on the UK side.

 

Really from the EU's side, it's looking ever more like either revoke A50 or sod off we are done with you.

9 minutes ago, apelike said:

None of the above. Maybe a short extension and then leave with or without a deal. Severe civil disorder, really....?

Yes really. With Waxy Lemon and his mob around I wouldn't rule out troops on the streets before too long. People get very antsy when there is no food in the stores and no end in site to it.

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