The Consequences of Brexit [Part 6] READ FIRST POST BEFORE COMMENTING

[L00b 441]

The occidental observer: white identity...

 

I stopped there.

[ez8004 10]

6 hours ago, apelike said:

No its not as its still the default action if there is no deal.

 

A quote from the BBC:

 

"Mrs May said an extension "cannot take no deal off the table", adding: "The only way to do that is to revoke Article 50, which I shall not do, or agree a deal."

 

 

You still think she has control of the Brexit process? Really?!

[L00b 441]

1 hour ago, ez8004 said:

You still think she has control of the Brexit process? Really?!

It's not about whether Theresa controls the Brexit process, it's about what actions need to be actively taken within relevant timescales to prevent no deal.

 

And in that respect, Theresa's quote is bang on the money: the only way of stop a no deal Brexit is to agree a deal or revoke the Article 50 notification, in either case before Brexit day, whether in 31 days'time, or beyond if and as extended.

 

That's the factual and objective measure, anything else is just politics and opinions.

[I1L2T3 10]

8 hours ago, apelike said:

No its not as its still the default action if there is no deal.

 

A quote from the BBC:

 

"Mrs May said an extension "cannot take no deal off the table", adding: "The only way to do that is to revoke Article 50, which I shall not do, or agree a deal."

 

 

Parliament would not allow it to happen.

 

It is not a serious option, only an accidental possibility and a remote one at that.

1 hour ago, MAC33 said:

Never before in the entire course of human history has an entire culture, race and civilisation decided to hand over its lands, social capital, heritage and identities to competing and intruding alien cultures without a fight, and even worse, to evolve an ideology that morally justifies and glorifies it as proof of their moral supremacy. 

European man is in a civilisational death dance.’

 

https://www.theoccidentalobserver.net/2019/02/26/a-cri-de-coeur-from-a-nation-wrecker/

What is the European race?  Le Mans 24 Hours? The Tour de France?

 

What is the European civilisation?

 

We are destroying ourselves by cooperating when our long history is of trying to destroy each other through war?

 

What utter rot that article is. Nonsense.

 

[L00b 441]

19 minutes ago, I1L2T3 said:

Parliament would not allow it to happen.

 

It is not a serious option, only an accidental possibility and a remote one at that.

Pragmatically, Parliament's only options are to revoke Article 50 or to vote a deal through.

 

Revoking Article 50 is a political career killer (at least in a vast majority of MPs' heads, still).

 

The only deal on the table currently, is Theresa's.

 

Negotiating anything softer requires weakening Theresa's red lines: that way brings MPs back towards the political killer end of the scale, which goes a long way to explain why you still don't have any consensus emerging about a form of Brexit that is acceptable to enough, nor is there any such consensus in sight.

 

That's been your problem since July 2016, and it still is: your political class can only define what they don't want (the opposed extremes: remaining, Brexiting without a deal), they can't agree what they want, because the outcome possibilities are far too multi-dimensional and there is far too much ignorance of socio-economic basics by MPs.

 

The legal ratcheting mechanism built into Article 50 TEU does the rest.

 

'told you 2 years ago (and crumbs): you're going out, without a deal, by accident rather than by design. And that's not a remote possibility in the least: it's the default outcome written in EU legal stone if the UK stays snookered over the next 31 days (the EU27 aren't going to grant that extension until and unless you unsnooker yourselves provably and demonstrably, with a realistic and achievable outcome within a short-term timescale, before that time period is out; see Sir Ivan Rogers' very recent words).

 

 

Edited February 27, 2019 by L00b

[I1L2T3 10]

2 minutes ago, L00b said:

Pragmatically, Parliament's only options are to revoke Article 50 or to vote a deal through.

 

Revoking Article 50 is a political career killer (at least in a vast majority of MPs' heads, still).

 

The only deal on the table currently, is Theresa's.

 

Negotiating anything softer requires weakening Theresa's red lines: that way brings MPs back towards the political killer end of the scale, which goes a long way to explain why you still don't have any consensus emerging about a form of Brexit that is acceptable to enough, nor is there any such consensus in sight.

 

That's been your problem since July 2016, and it still is: your political class can only define what they don't want (the opposed extremes: remaining, Brexiting without a deal), they can't agree what they want, because the outcome possibilities are far too multi-dimensional and there is far too much ignorance of socio-economic basics by MPs.

 

The legal ratcheting mechanism built into Article 50 TEU does the rest.

 

 

Currently it is the only deal but make no mistake this government is at risk of collapse and it could happen fast. In that eventuality a long A50 extension would be the only option.

[L00b 441]

16 minutes ago, I1L2T3 said:

Currently it is the only deal but make no mistake this government is at risk of collapse and it could happen fast. In that eventuality a long A50 extension would be the only option.

It is not in the EU27's collective interests to grant the UK a 'long' extension, until and unless a "remain" outcome is a real and effective prospect by the time the extension is requested. That's unlikely -not impossible, but unlikely- to happen in the next 4 weeks.

 

The most likely you'll get, is a sequence of short extensions, each bounded by progressive deliverable(s), and aimed at bringing this whole circus to a prompt end for the sake of clarity and certainty. Miss a deliverable by the deadline and you're out. Helpfully, that  approach, long tried and tested with toddlers, should focus British politicians' minds a bit.

 

The EU27 have probably already worked out the deliverables, timescale and sequence. EU civil servants are efficient that way.

Edited February 27, 2019 by L00b

[I1L2T3 10]

25 minutes ago, L00b said:

It is not in the EU27's collective interests to grant the UK a 'long' extension, until and unless a "remain" outcome is a real and effective prospect by the time the extension is requested. That's unlikely -not impossible, but unlikely- to happen in the next 4 weeks.

 

The most likely you'll get, is a sequence of short extensions, each bounded by progressive deliverable(s), and aimed at bringing this whole circus to a prompt end for the sake of clarity and certainty. Miss a deliverable by the deadline and you're out. Helpfully, that  approach, long tried and tested with toddlers, should focus British politicians' minds a bit.

 

The EU27 have probably already worked out the deliverables, timescale and sequence. EU civil servants are efficient that way.

I don’t think it’ll be that harsh. You’re overstating the willingness of the EU27 to harm the U.K.

 

A UK with an accidental no deal during a period of governmental collapse is a true domesday scenario. It would massively harm the EU, especially our closest neighbours and the shockwave would ripple through the world economy.

 

Nobody wants it. It won’t happen, and Parliament would step up to the plate in that time. It may even result in A50 being revoked.

[tzijlstra 11]

Fortunately the BoE has already ring-fenced billions to bail British banks out if they get into trouble due to Brexit, because bailing them out worked so well last time. 

[L00b 441]

18 minutes ago, I1L2T3 said:

I don’t think it’ll be that harsh. You’re overstating the willingness of the EU27 to harm the U.K.

 

A UK with an accidental no deal during a period of governmental collapse is a true domesday scenario. It would massively harm the EU, especially our closest neighbours and the shockwave would ripple through the world economy.

 

Nobody wants it. It won’t happen, and Parliament would step up to the plate in that time. It may even result in A50 being revoked.

In turn, you're overestimating the stock of UK goodwill left in the EU27.

 

I fully agree with you that the EU would try not to let the UK descend into socio-economic meltdown, in the scenario you posit. Because the EU27 are not out to 'harm' or punish the UK: they're out to respect the UK's sovereign wish to Brexit, at least harm to themselves.

 

But the EU27 and the Commission are all keenly aware of the highly-toxic political environment which decades of unbridled Euroscepticism, compounded by the last few years' worth of far right stoking by vested interests and the last 2 years' worth of outright hostility by UK government ministers, have created across the EU, wherein any intervention to assist would immediately be seen by many (52%?) and recuperated politically (in the UK as elsewhere) as just more Brussels meddling in sovereign matters, however unjustly.

 

Damned if they do, damned if they don't, and I daresay they've got enough on their plate without prolongating the agony at (still more of-) their political and economic expense. And they're all far more ready than the UK to withstand the fallout.

Edited February 27, 2019 by L00b

[I1L2T3 10]

1 hour ago, L00b said:

In turn, you're overestimating the stock of UK goodwill left in the EU27.

 

I fully agree with you that the EU would try not to let the UK descend into socio-economic meltdown, in the scenario you posit. Because the EU27 are not out to 'harm' or punish the UK: they're out to respect the UK's sovereign wish to Brexit, at least harm to themselves.

 

But the EU27 and the Commission are all keenly aware of the highly-toxic political environment which decades of unbridled Euroscepticism, compounded by the last few years' worth of far right stoking by vested interests and the last 2 years' worth of outright hostility by UK government ministers, have created across the EU, wherein any intervention to assist would immediately be seen by many (52%?) and recuperated politically (in the UK as elsewhere) as just more Brussels meddling in sovereign matters, however unjustly.

 

Damned if they do, damned if they don't, and I daresay they've got enough on their plate without prolongating the agony at (still more of-) their political and economic expense. And they're all far more ready than the UK to withstand the fallout.

The EU also knows that at least half the U.K. population don’t want to exit, and still view the EU positively 

 

Its about people too, not politicians and personalities

 

Ive got two kids in different EU27 countries and the environment is not hostile to them. It’s actually very welcoming, despite everything.

 

The EU has played a blinder in this respect. They know the remainer half of the country is the key to sorting this out. And they want us onside. 

 

There is a big reserve of patience IMO, after all as this progresses the EU27 are gaining jobs and businesses from the U.K. 

Edited February 27, 2019 by I1L2T3

[L00b 441]

38 minutes ago, I1L2T3 said:

The EU also knows that at least half the U.K. population don’t want to exit, and still view the EU positively 

 

Its about people too, not politicians and personalities

 

Ive got two kids in different EU27 countries and the environment is not hostile to them. It’s actually very welcoming, despite everything.

 

The EU has played a blinder in this respect. They know the remainer half of the country is the key to sorting this out. And they want us onside. 

 

There is a big reserve of patience IMO, after all as this progresses the EU27 are gaining jobs and businesses from the U.K. 

The issue with the above, is that in practical terms, the 48% and friends have achieved nothing since June 2016.

 

The EU27 aren't about to make local or visiting Brits undesirables, as a matter of fact the unilateral garantees for resident Brits in case of no deal Brexit have all been volunteered by EU states first: they know full well what a resource immigrant Brits are for them, and unsurprisingly value them so.

 

Somewhat different to the UK approach with its shambolic settled status application system, perpetuating Theresa's hostile environment of old (est.2010).

 

The jobs and businesses were always hoing to be gained from the UK on the run-up to Brexit day. Scores of us said so on here before the referendum, if you'll recall my exchanges with unbeliever. The UK's handling of Brexit, woefully-misplayed and non-existent brinksmanship and all, has simply compounded them.

 

Yet even given that context, refer to my first sentence above: what has the 48% done and achieved, to unf**** UK politics and stop the Brexit Knievel bus ride? Sod all, is what.

 

So. The EU27 are very mindful of the 48% and keep friendly intentions for them, sure. But they know the 48% are politically irrelevant in the actual Brexit process and decisions, because they are wholly unrepresented in UK domestic politics. Not even by Chuka's new independent party.

 

I don't do hard truths only for the Leave side.

Edited February 27, 2019 by L00b