The Consequences of Brexit [Part 6] READ FIRST POST BEFORE COMMENTING

[ez8004 10]

6 minutes ago, WiseOwl182 said:

The only way it will be the end of Brexit is if another referendum is called (seems likely) and remain wins by a large margin. I'm still waiting for an answer on how a repeat of the 2016 vote requires a "3-4% swing" rather than a 0% swing to get the same result.

Because a lot of leave voters from 2016 are dead. 

[apelike 10]

18 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

Recent Parliamentary votes have given MPs the ability to prevent a no deal Brexit by suspending (or even scrapping) Article 50.

But it hasn't. The only way parliament can stop a no deal brexit or suspending or scrapping A50  is to first come up with an alternative plan and get a majority in parliament for it to be carried. Dont forget they voted overwhelmingly for a referendum and they then voted overwhelmingly to pass the A50 bill so I doubt they will now go back on that.

Edited January 15, 2019 by apelike

[WiseOwl182 10]

12 minutes ago, ez8004 said:

Because a lot of leave voters from 2016 are dead. 

So a complete guesstimate then. By definition, the exact same vote requires a 0% swing.

[Top Cats Hat 10]

2 minutes ago, WiseOwl182 said:

I'm still waiting for an answer on how a repeat of the 2016 vote requires a "3-4% swing" rather than a 0% swing to get the same result.

Do we really have to do this again?

 

I can't be asred to go looking for the exact figures again but something like 1.5 million 'old people' have died since June 2016. Since 2016 something like 1.75 million 16-18 year olds have now become eligible to vote. As 75% of over 70 year old support Leave and 85% of 18-25 year olds support Remain that means that Remain will have 1.5 million more supporters in 2019 and Leave will have 1,125,000 less voters. That means rather than Leave gaining a majority of 1.3 million votes as in 2016, Remain will gain a majority of 1.2 million votes which basically reverses the 2016 result. 

 

Hence my statement that Leave will need a swing of 3-4% just to gain parity with Remain, never mind win. On top of that, every month which passes adds 70,000 to the Remain total.

 

The reason Brexiters are desperate to avoid a second referendum is that they know it can't be won.

[apelike 10]

4 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

Since 2016 something like 1.75 million 16-18 year olds have now become eligible to vote. As 75% of over 70 year old support Leave and 85% of 18-25 year olds support Remain that means that Remain will have 1.5 million more supporters in 2019 and Leave will have 1,125,000 less voters.

But those figures are also dependant on the supposition that 85% of those 1.75 million new young voters will actually go out and vote at all. The last referendum showed that many didn't bother voting at all.

[ez8004 10]

1 minute ago, apelike said:

But those figures are also dependant on the supposition that 85% of those 1.75 million new young voters will actually go out and vote at all. The last referendum showed that many didn't bother voting at all.

Do you genuinely think the same mistakes will be made?  Get ready for a second referendum, you’re in for a rude awakening. 

[apelike 10]

3 minutes ago, ez8004 said:

Do you genuinely think the same mistakes will be made?  Get ready for a second referendum, you’re in for a rude awakening. 

You predicted a second referendum in December that didn't happen so I'm confident you will be wrong again.

[L00b 441]

Just back from a couple of business events and finally caught the news...that vote thing went well, didn't it?

 

So, basically we're back to where we were 5 weeks ago...only with the actual rejecting tally double the estimate of the time, and 5 weeks closer to B-day. I don't think even Carlsberg could do this incompetent, even if they tried their hardest.

 

She won't go, I trust you all know that well. No deal Brexit by accident is still the prediction here.

[Top Cats Hat 10]

24 minutes ago, apelike said:

But those figures are also dependant on the supposition that 85% of those 1.75 million new young voters will actually go out and vote at all. The last referendum showed that many didn't bother voting at all.

You are absolutely right and many of them regret not doing so. One of the loudest voices in the Remain campaign is that of young people who feel that they have been sold down the river.

 

The biggest problem for Brexiters is that 75% of those who didn't bother to vote last time were remain supporters, either thinking that it was a done deal  or refusing to take part in something which was seen as an internal Conservative party matter.

 

If even half of those who didn't vote last time partake in a second vote the result could be 60%+ for Remain.

 

That will kill Brexit off completely.

Edited January 15, 2019 by Top Cats Hat

[retep 68]

37 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

Do we really have to do this again?

 

I can't be asred to go looking for the exact figures again but something like 1.5 million 'old people' have died since June 2016. Since 2016 something like 1.75 million 16-18 year olds have now become eligible to vote. As 75% of over 70 year old support Leave and 85% of 18-25 year olds support Remain that means that Remain will have 1.5 million more supporters in 2019 and Leave will have 1,125,000 less voters. That means rather than Leave gaining a majority of 1.3 million votes as in 2016, Remain will gain a majority of 1.2 million votes which basically reverses the 2016 result. 

 

Hence my statement that Leave will need a swing of 3-4% just to gain parity with Remain, never mind win. On top of that, every month which passes adds 70,000 to the Remain total.

 

The reason Brexiters are desperate to avoid a second referendum is that they know it can't be won.

Straw clutching,

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1070513/Brexit-news-Channel-4-debate-Jon-Snow-inbetweeners-Leave

[Top Cats Hat 10]

1 minute ago, retep said:

Straw clutching,

Really?

 

It is called maths. Why do you think that Brextremists are so scared of a second referendum?

[apelike 10]

12 minutes ago, Top Cats Hat said:

One of the loudest voices in the Remain campaign is that of young people who feel that they have been sold down the river.

Actually I dont think that to be true as the majority I hear spouting that rhetoric are not in that age group and the ones that are cant actually tell exactly how it will effect them only that they will have to fill out some forms.

 

Quote

If even half of those who didn't vote last time partake in a second vote the result could be 60%+ for Remain.

 

That will kill Brexit off completely.

But that is presuming parliament would/could be united in holding another referendum and at the moment that is just not happening. You can tell by the selfies taken and posted by some MP's in the voting lobby that it is all still a game to them. 

Edited January 15, 2019 by apelike