The Consequences of Brexit [Part 6] READ FIRST POST BEFORE COMMENTING

[I1L2T3 10]

Let’s not forget one of the key drivers for the referendum were opinion polls that indicated 60% of people (IIRC) wanted a say on the EU. They actually used opinion polls to justify holding a referendum.

1 minute ago, apelike said:

When and who discredited the recent referendum? not forgetting that its up to parliament to do that.

It will happen soon enough. There’s no way round it.

 

We don’t have a deal that is acceptable. And a party that goes through with no deal will be unelectable for a generation.

[apelike 10]

7 minutes ago, I1L2T3 said:

They actually used opinion polls to justify holding a referendum.

In time honoured fashion...  who are "they" Also notice how "they" never used opinion polls to ask if the people of the UK wanted to join the EEC in the first place as they knew the vast majority were against it.

Edited February 10, 2019 by apelike

[I1L2T3 10]

1 minute ago, apelike said:

In time honoured fashion...  who are "they"

The government at the time. A combo of strong UKIP electoral performance, pressure from within his own party and opinion polling indicating a majority of voters wanting a say on the EU led Cameron to call the referendum.

 

It was about tackling the right of his party and the success of UKIP, with those opinion polls suggestive of further ground being lost to UKIP a very real risk.

[apelike 10]

4 minutes ago, I1L2T3 said:

The government at the time. A combo of strong UKIP electoral performance, pressure from within his own party and opinion polling indicating a majority of voters wanting a say on the EU led Cameron to call the referendum.

 

It was about tackling the right of his party and the success of UKIP, with those opinion polls suggestive of further ground being lost to UKIP a very real risk.

For most part I think you are right but I dont think it had anything to do with what the voters wanted. As a briefing paper from the Lords put it, Governments tend to hold a referendum when they think they will win one and in this case it backfired on Cameron.

[WiseOwl182 10]

1 hour ago, I1L2T3 said:

There’s evidence that 2016 voting intentions rapidly switched towards leave in a one week window at around the same time that leave campaign targeted individual ads were at their most intense. Since then we’ve had the same trend month after month and that is a steady move back to remain.

 

52-43 the last one I saw, and as I said politicians would be stupid to ignore that

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#/media/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg

 

That's the general pattern in the run up to Brexit. Several polls right up to the days before the vote had Remain well above 50%. There was a general convergence between the two. You quote 52% Remain in the latest polls - there were similar poll results in the days before Brexit. People simply vote differently with the (supposed) anonymity of the polling booth.

1 hour ago, Top Cats Hat said:

A credible poll is one carried out by a respected polling organisation with a statistically useful sample which publishes both the questions and raw data and is usually conducted on a monthly basis to show a trend. 

 

A non credible poll is one carried out by a 'commercial' polling company* usually with a very small sample size (200-500) and commisioned by a vested interest such as a daily newspaper to show a particular result.

 

Let's not forget that even very partial survey's such as the one commisioned by The Sun last year showed a lead for remain although you had to look at the data to see that as the headline attempted to give the opposite impression.

 

(*all polling organisations are commercial but what I mean here are companies who are hired by organisations like drugs companies and advertising agencies to 'produce specific results'.)

Remain was ahead in virtually every poll conducted between mid 2014 and the referendum in 2016. Were they credible polls? The one that had the largest sample size (33 million) and voting booth anonymity proved them all wrong. I reckon it is the same situation now.  If Remain were double digits ahead then you'd have a point, but it's still only polling a few percent here and there ahead of Leave, much like it did ahead of the Brexit vote.

[I1L2T3 10]

1 hour ago, WiseOwl182 said:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#/media/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg

 

That's the general pattern in the run up to Brexit. Several polls right up to the days before the vote had Remain well above 50%. There was a general convergence between the two. You quote 52% Remain in the latest polls - there were similar poll results in the days before Brexit. People simply vote differently with the (supposed) anonymity of the polling booth.

Remain was ahead in virtually every poll conducted between mid 2014 and the referendum in 2016. Were they credible polls? The one that had the largest sample size (33 million) and voting booth anonymity proved them all wrong. I reckon it is the same situation now.  If Remain were double digits ahead then you'd have a point, but it's still only polling a few percent here and there ahead of Leave, much like it did ahead of the Brexit vote.

Then there should be no problem with another referendum to ratify the terms of the deal now we know what is on the table.

[taxman 12]

We've gone from sunlit uplands to scrambling around foraging for seaweed

 

 

[Cyclone 10]

4 hours ago, Lockdoctor said:

Why would someone waste their time looking at opinion polls after the 2016 referendum has taken place?  It's a bit like  looking at  yesterday's  weather forecast after you have been out all day in the rain today,  to find out if you should have taken an umbrella with you.

They must terrify you, all those people who've changed their minds and want to rerun the vote.

[WiseOwl182 10]

1 hour ago, I1L2T3 said:

Then there should be no problem with another referendum to ratify the terms of the deal now we know what is on the table.

I agree. I think it's the best option.

[tinfoilhat 11]

30 minutes ago, taxman said:

We've gone from sunlit uplands to scrambling around foraging for seaweed

 

 

Well that sounds nicer than going through rubbish. 

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/michael-goves-hot-tip-hunt-for-gold-in-others-rubbish-vk60ck53p

 

Great Britain in 2019 ladies and gentlemen.

[Top Cats Hat 10]

9 minutes ago, WiseOwl182 said:

I agree. I think it's the best option.

A further referendum will be a proper Catch 22 for Brextremists. 

 

They will have to insist on no deal being one of the options but at the same time know that this will split the Leave vote and allow a stronger Remain showing. They have exactly the same problem with the next 'meaningful vote' in parliament where if they don't back May's 'surrender' deal they will almost certainly end up with no Brexit at all!

[taxman 12]

10 minutes ago, tinfoilhat said:

Well that sounds nicer than going through rubbish. 

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/michael-goves-hot-tip-hunt-for-gold-in-others-rubbish-vk60ck53p

 

Great Britain in 2019 ladies and gentlemen.

A vision of a future Britain we can all be proud of