The Consequences of Brexit [part 5] Read 1st post before posting

[Magilla 510]

As it is becoming more and more obvious with every day that passes, that we are at the 'this is as good as it is going to get' stage.

 

It was inevitable, it was always going to be so. Fantasy is starting to meet reality.

 

---------- Post added 15-11-2018 at 18:57 ----------

 

There is no majority in the country or in Parliament for no deal.

 

No deal won't happen, if it really gets that far I'd put money that parliament will go for the fastest/easiest solution to avert the impending crisis (CU/SM).

 

As you say, there's no stomach for no-deal anywhere.

Edited November 15, 2018 by Magilla

[andyofborg 11]

The only way forward is No Deal ............. which is exactly what we should have done in the first place. Just walk away . It makes me sick seeing a British Prime minister caving in to EU blackmail. May has no backbone .

 

She is dead in the water, just like her surrender deal.

 

why is it?

 

and you are aware this is just to cover the period between our leaving in March next year until the point that the deal which defines our future, permanent relationship with the EU.

[melthebell 863]

why is it?

 

and you are aware this is just to cover the period between our leaving in March next year until the point that the deal which defines our future, permanent relationship with the EU.

its funny how brextremists are up in arms and reigning fury over the deal, when its ONLY a transition period deal, its NOT a final deal...its a transition LOL

 

do people not understand what a transition is?

[tinfoilhat 11]

I'm degree qualified and provide very well actually. Pity your education doesn't provide you with a less prejudiced opinion of people with different qualities.

 

---------- Post added 15-11-2018 at 18:12 ----------

 

If labour vote against it, it's one of the options left....

 

There's enough remainers in the Labour ranks to see it through. And corbyn knows he's got nothing better, it's in their interest to let May and Tories self destruct on this plan and stroll the next election with a "look what the Tories did with brexit, isn't it awful" slogan.

[Lockdoctor 10]

why is it?

 

and you are aware this is just to cover the period between our leaving in March next year until the point that the deal which defines our future, permanent relationship with the EU.

You don't seem to be aware that if the UK agree to the withdrawal deal as it stands, then the UK risk being trapped in the customs union for ever or until the EU give the UK permission to leave and the UK will pay £39bn for being trapped . Both remain and leave members of parliament don't dispute this. The EU can't be trusted to agree to a permanent relationship or allow the UK to leave the customs union. Walking away without a deal makes more sense than becoming a prisoner of the EU without a release date.

[melthebell 863]

You don't seem to be aware that if the UK agree to the withdrawal deal as it stands, then the UK risk being trapped in the customs union for ever or until the EU give the UK permission to leave and the UK will pay £39bn for being trapped . Both remain and leave members of parliament don't dispute this. The EU can't be trusted to agree to a permanent relationship or allow the UK to leave the customs union. Walking away without a deal makes more sense than becoming a prisoner of the EU without a release date.

project fear

[tinfoilhat 11]

You don't seem to be aware that if the UK agree to the withdrawal deal as it stands, then the UK risk being trapped in the customs union for ever or until the EU give the UK permission to leave and the UK will pay £39bn for being trapped . Both remain and leave members of parliament don't dispute this. The EU can't be trusted to agree to a permanent relationship or allow the UK to leave the customs union. Walking away without a deal makes more sense than becoming a prisoner of the EU without a release date.

 

Why can't we trust the EU, but we can trust our politicians?

[woodview 10]

You don't seem to be aware that if the UK agree to the withdrawal deal as it stands, then the UK risk being trapped in the customs union for ever or until the EU give the UK permission to leave and the UK will pay £39bn for being trapped . Both remain and leave members of parliament don't dispute this. The EU can't be trusted to agree to a permanent relationship or allow the UK to leave the customs union. Walking away without a deal makes more sense than becoming a prisoner of the EU without a release date.

This is 100% the issue. The deal is fine, if it's possible to move from the 'transition' CU, to the future relationship. But since there is no way to move to the new deal or walk away without EU aproval, it changes the whole thing.

Remove the word 'joint' from that one clause, and you've got a different dynamic, that is a set if compromises, that people will have to get their heads.around.

 

---------- Post added 15-11-2018 at 19:31 ----------

 

Why can't we trust the EU, but we can trust our politicians?

 

Perhaps 'trust' is the wrong word. Because at that stage we will be negotiating the future FTA. If you can't move to it without EU approval, and have to stay in the CU, there's no bargaining strength on our side.

[andyofborg 11]

You don't seem to be aware that if the UK agree to the withdrawal deal as it stands, then the UK risk being trapped in the customs union for ever or until the EU give the UK permission to leave and the UK will pay £39bn for being trapped . Both remain and leave members of parliament don't dispute this. The EU can't be trusted to agree to a permanent relationship or allow the UK to leave the customs union. Walking away without a deal makes more sense than becoming a prisoner of the EU without a release date.

 

i'm completely aware of both of those points

 

while in theory, there may be the concept of being there forever, I dont see that as a risk, we want to finalise the proper deal as soon as possible and I'm sure there will be pressure from the member states to do so too so they can move on to other challenges.

 

---------- Post added 15-11-2018 at 19:40 ----------

 

This is 100% the issue. The deal is fine, if it's possible to move from the 'transition' CU, to the future relationship. But since there is no way to move to the new deal or walk away without EU aproval, it changes the whole thing.

Remove the word 'joint' from that one clause, and you've got a different dynamic, that is a set if compromises, that people will have to get their heads.around.

 

presumably, as the EU will be the other party in the future relationship deal, transitioning to it wont be a problem.

 

on the other hand, walking away without a future relationship deal is essentially the "no deal" option we have today, at worst it has the same consequences as it would today, at best we have another 2 years to try and mitigate the worst effects.

[altus 540]

You don't seem to be aware that if the UK agree to the withdrawal deal as it stands, then the UK risk being trapped in the customs union for ever or until the EU give the UK permission to leave and the UK will pay £39bn for being trapped . Both remain and leave members of parliament don't dispute this. The EU can't be trusted to agree to a permanent relationship or allow the UK to leave the customs union. Walking away without a deal makes more sense than becoming a prisoner of the EU without a release date.

 

You misspelled "until the UK come up with a workable solution to the Irish border" - because that's what the stumbling block really is. No infrastructure on the border - neither the UK or Ireland want that. No border in the Irish Sea - because Arlene won't accept that. No reunification of Ireland - because neither the DUP nor the Conservative and Unionist party want that. And no using the Irish border to undermine the single market - so no magical IT solutions that don't exist yet and only really ease border crossings for honest companies who regularly cross the border and do nothing to stop people transporting stuff they shouldn't.

[Top Cats Hat 10]

The referendum was a simple in or out; so May is perfectly entitled to get whatever deal she wants.

 

 

That is a very important point.

 

Leaving the EU is a legal, political and constitutional absolute. Once Article 50 is triggered and the leave date expires we are no longer a member of the EU.

 

We can still be in a customs union. We can still be in the single market. We can still be subject to European regulation. We can still be subject to the ECJ. We can even move the House of Commons to Brussels.

 

BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE LEFT THE EU!

 

The Brextremists can scream and shout as much as they like about how it isn't a proper Brexit but that won't alter the fact that the government promise to take the UK out of the EU will have been fulfilled.

[RJRB 688]

The only way forward is No Deal ............. which is exactly what we should have done in the first place. Just walk away . It makes me sick seeing a British Prime minister caving in to EU blackmail. May has no backbone .

 

She is dead in the water, just like her surrender deal.

 

Ironically,the only way that you will get No Deal is with Theresa May if her efforts to secure a medium boiled Brexit is voted down.

There is not a single hard line Brexit politician prepared to step forward and commit political suicide by representing your view.

Hard line Brexit has many foot soldiers and no Generals.