The Consequences of Brexit [part 5] Read 1st post before posting

[tzijlstra 11]

Looks like the cabinet is still at war with itself. The iPaper this morning reports on a rift between Rees-Mogg and Johnson on one side and the Chancellor and Prime Minister on the other. The proposed 'third option' customs union has been ridiculed and looks unlikely to get through.

 

I have a stronger and stronger suspicion that we'll be having elections pretty darned soon.

[alchresearch 214]

Vote Leave broke electoral law

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44704561

[hobinfoot 25]

This is not resolveable.

 

We have two choices. We wish to continue to trade easily with Europe which means some form of customs union, whatever they choose to call it. The Brextremists will throw their toys out of the pram.

 

We wish to trade freely with the rest of the world so trade with Europe grinds to a complete halt, all UK air transport is grounded, hospitals start running out of essential stocks the Irish border is reimposed and the pound starts to nosedive, all in the hope of securing good trade deals with the US and China just as the US provokes the biggest trade war in decades. The Brextremists will cheer but the rest of us will pay the price.

 

Over to you Mrs May!

Trade with the EU will still carry on. Businesses on both sides will not want to cut off a lucrative trade with the other by imposing punishing tariffs. This I believe will eventually be the pragmatic outcome of the negotiations.

[L00b 441]

Trade with the EU will still carry on. Businesses on both sides will not want to cut off a lucrative trade with the other by imposing punishing tariffs. This I believe will eventually be the pragmatic outcome of the negotiations.

Of course U.K.-EU27 trade will still carry on.

 

But on the tarriff side of things, I’m afraid that’s entirely out of businesses’ hands: (I) you can’t wish WTO rules away and (II) we have all seen how much ‘influence’ both U.K. and EU businesses have with the U.K. government, i.e. none.

 

(preemptive reminder: German car manufacturers -amongst others, including Airbus & co.- have been backing the Single Market model from day one, that means they expect the U.K. to stay in or as close to it (to the contrary of the EU making SM-imperilling concessions), but would otherwise live with the U.K. not doing that)

Edited July 4, 2018 by L00b

[I1L2T3 10]

Trade with the EU will still carry on. Businesses on both sides will not want to cut off a lucrative trade with the other by imposing punishing tariffs. This I believe will eventually be the pragmatic outcome of the negotiations.

 

If Brexit was supposed to lead to a free trade nirvana why the hell are Brexiters openly welcoming tariffs?

[melthebell 863]

Jaguar landrover warn brexit could hit UK investment

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44719656

[ez8004 10]

Jaguar landrover warn brexit could hit UK investment

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44719656

 

JLR and my extension Tata have history in putting money where their mouth is. The £80bn being mentioned isn’t just a number pulled out of thin air, they really do have the finances to do this.

 

If this isn’t terrifying the Midlands, I don’t know what will. But at least we can keep the foreigners out right?

 

In the words of Boris Johnson, “<removed> business”

Edited July 5, 2018 by nikki-red

[L00b 441]

JLR and my extension Tata have history in putting money where their mouth is. The £80bn being mentioned isn’t just a number pulled out of thin air, they really do have the finances to do this.

 

If this isn’t terrifying the Midlands, I don’t know what will. But at least we can keep the foreigners out right?

 

In the words of Boris Johnson, “<removed> business”

It’s not “the Midlands” which this announcement needs to terrify. Not even your baseline Brexiteers, either.

 

It’s the government, May in particular. And pensioners, whose well-being (low cost of living, free healthcare, etc) relies wholly on a healthy and growing economy. But objectively, there’s been “Project Truth Fear” before the referendum, and countless similar warnings (by industry and collective bodies) since, besides statistical indicators all attesting to stalling economy and FDI. So your chances of anyone being terrified by this latest announcement are...not a lot.

 

Tomorrow is make-or-break for May. If she fudges between both sides (again), you’re in for a hard Brexit. If she pacifies hardliners more, you’re in for a hard Brexit. If she pacifies softliners more, she’s in for the chop and you’re likely to get a hardliner PM (Corbyn or Gove or...)...and you’re in for a hard Brexit. Can’t see this ending well, whichever way it pans out.

Edited July 5, 2018 by nikki-red

[I1L2T3 10]

I’d give this advice to everyone, remainers or Brexiter.

 

If you can organise citizenship of an EU country, or need to formalise your right to stay in the U.K. then do it now. You have almost run out of time.

 

If there is a hard Brexit then issues around residency and citizenship status will be weaponised. You could face terrible problems later.

 

In my family’s experience (applying for a British passport for my wife who is technically but not obviously a British citizen) the British system has already become festooned with staff very very aggressively applying policy guidelines. It has been tough.

 

There is also significant contingency planning at many companies we work with now around citizenship, residency, visas etc...

[L00b 441]

If there is a hard Brexit then issues around residency and citizenship status will be weaponised. You could face terrible problems later.

They’ve been officially weaponised since the referendum by Liam Fox, amongst others. With the tacit consent of Parliament.

 

Signed: an (ex) “negotiation chip”.

 

My own advice to those concerned is, take whatever formalisation you (anyone) end up doing, as worth about as much as the next immigrant-bashing populist trash in the tabloids, which equates to the next policy u-turn in the name of self-interest by government ministers, who now enjoy significant (‘Henry VIII’) powers over Parliament after MPs voted the EU withdrawal act through (they’ve “taken back control” alright ).

 

Commonsensically, “one in the hand, two in the bush” and all that. It’s only your life and your future, after all

Edited July 5, 2018 by L00b

[RJRB 688]

Should be an interesting meeting of Ministers at Chequers tomorrow.

How long can May try to unite a Cabinet which is virtually in open rebellion with the whip hand with the hard liners who think that they have the backing of the electorate.

Misguided fools!

[I1L2T3 10]

Should be an interesting meeting of Ministers at Chequers tomorrow.

How long can May try to unite a Cabinet which is virtually in open rebellion with the whip hand with the hard liners who think that they have the backing of the electorate.

Misguided fools!

 

Definite change in tone on Question Time tonight.

 

Kings Lynn is normally shouty Brexiter central. 66% voted leave in the referendum.

 

I think the reality is starting to hit home.