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Grey Skies, Nothing But Grey Skies..

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On 02/07/2021 at 19:20, trastrick said:

Definitely weather!

 

Fortunately our planet has an amazing capabilty to average out these temps over the whole Planet.  Its called weather, see Regression toward the mean, outliers and the Second Law of Thermodynamic (The second law may be formulated by the observation that the entropy of isolated systems left to spontaneous evolution cannot decrease, as they always arrive at a state of thermodynamic equilibrium, )

So is the atmosphere (weather) an isolated system when we are pumping huge amounts of carbon dioxide etc into it - in what way is this "spontaneous evolution"?

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6 minutes ago, butlers said:

 

While all this is going on,

Us in Sheffield are basking under grey sky's in a very typical summer.

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5 minutes ago, Padders said:

While all this is going on,

Us in Sheffield are basking under grey sky's in a very typical summer.

Still sat outside here in France in T shirt and shorts. Will send another crate of virtual champers to Padders Bar as soon as I can 🍾

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3 minutes ago, Longcol said:

Still sat outside here in France in T shirt and shorts. Will send another crate of virtual champers to Padders Bar as soon as I can 🍾

Thank's  Longcol, much appreciated , trouble is there is a chronic shortage of virtual delivery drivers at the moment.

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10 hours ago, Longcol said:

So is the atmosphere (weather) an isolated system when we are pumping huge amounts of carbon dioxide etc into it - in what way is this "spontaneous evolution"?

The Big Question is whatUAH_LT_1979_thru_June_2021_v6.jpg effect does that have on  global temperatures?

 

See for yourself.

 

Here's an update on the latest NOAA monthly satellite temperature readings over the entire Earth.

 

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, butlers said:

 

Here's the latest NASA/NSIDC GLOBAL polar ice situation, as of June, 2021

 

We have 2 Polar Ice Caps, remember?

 

nsidc_global_area.png?attachauth=ANoY7cq

Edited by trastrick

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15 hours ago, Longcol said:
On 02/07/2021 at 18:20, trastrick said:

Definitely weather!

 

Fortunately our planet has an amazing capabilty to average out these temps over the whole Planet.  Its called weather, see Regression toward the mean, outliers and the Second Law of Thermodynamic (The second law may be formulated by the observation that the entropy of isolated systems left to spontaneous evolution cannot decrease, as they always arrive at a state of thermodynamic equilibrium, )

So is the atmosphere (weather) an isolated system when we are pumping huge amounts of carbon dioxide etc into it - in what way is this "spontaneous evolution"?

Bigger issue: that big yellow object in the sky keeps delivering energy to the Earth and the Earth keeps radiating energy into space. No points can therefore be awarded for invoking the Second Law of Thermodynamics.

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42 minutes ago, Carbuncle said:

Bigger issue: that big yellow object in the sky keeps delivering energy to the Earth and the Earth keeps radiating energy into space. No points can therefore be awarded for invoking the Second Law of Thermodynamics.

The heat energyThe Sun provides a varying amount of energy in several predictable cycles. 

The Sun and Moon also warm the Earth through gravitation and radioactive decay within the Earth provides direct heat.

The predictable cycle of Solar orbits, tilts, energy etc means that we are leaving an ice age (glaciers at both poles) more slowly because of a continent at the the south pole and a circumpolar current preventing a quicker melting. Other factors include continental drift and erosion of mountains

Global warming would be happening anyway but Human activity is introducing a newfactor which is not fully understood, so therefore the impact and timescale is difficult to predict. The temperature of the oceans is increasing. The effect will be...?

 

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1 hour ago, Annie Bynnol said:
4 hours ago, Carbuncle said:

Bigger issue: that big yellow object in the sky keeps delivering energy to the Earth and the Earth keeps radiating energy into space. No points can therefore be awarded for invoking the Second Law of Thermodynamics.

The heat energyThe Sun provides a varying amount of energy in several predictable cycles. 

The Sun and Moon also warm the Earth through gravitation and radioactive decay within the Earth provides direct heat.

The predictable cycle of Solar orbits, tilts, energy etc means that we are leaving an ice age (glaciers at both poles) more slowly because of a continent at the the south pole and a circumpolar current preventing a quicker melting. Other factors include continental drift and erosion of mountains

Global warming would be happening anyway but Human activity is introducing a newfactor which is not fully understood, so therefore the impact and timescale is difficult to predict. The temperature of the oceans is increasing. The effect will be...?

 

I was just pointing out that the Earth is not an isolated system so that @trastrick's invocation of the second law of thermodynamics was horse doodah dressed up as haggis.

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, Carbuncle said:

I was just pointing out that the Earth is not an isolated system so that @trastrick's invocation of the second law of thermodynamics was horse doodah dressed up as haggis.

"In physical science, an isolated system is either of the following:

1. a physical system so far removed from other systems that it does not interact with them.


2. a thermodynamic system enclosed by rigid immovable walls through which neither mass nor energy can pass. Though subject internally to its own gravity, an isolated system is usually taken to be outside the reach of external gravitational and other long-range forces.

 

This can be contrasted with what (in the more common terminology used in thermodynamics) is called a closed system, being enclosed by selective walls through which energy can pass as heat or work, but not matter; and with an open system, which both matter and energy can enter or exit, though it may have variously impermeable walls in parts of its boundaries.

 

An isolated system obeys the conservation law that its total energy–mass stays constant. 

 

Because of the requirement of enclosure, and the near ubiquity of gravity, strictly and ideally isolated systems do not actually occur in experiments, or in nature. Though very useful, they are strictly hypothetical.[1][2][3]" - WIKI

 

Open, closed and isolated systems are useful, but arbitrary scientific terms which must  defined by scale. A covered pot on a kitchen stove, a human being, the Earth with its unique gravity and climate, the solar system, the galaxy, the Local Galactic Group, the observable universe.

 

All are in relative equilibrium on human time scales.

 

Otherwise everything would just fade into a chaotic nothingness.

 

A lot of money is spent every year on the search for other unique (relatively closed) systems like our amazing blue planet with its alien life.

 

To those, who believe that our planet is on a death watch, during their own paltry lifetimes, I would just say relax!

 

The Earth has been habitable for life, these 3,500,000,000 years and for humanoids, some 3,000,000 years.

 

It will not die in your lifetime. Now there's your horse doodah dressed up as haggis.

 

You just ain't that special.  Lol
 

Edited by trastrick

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It may be convenient to describe the Earth as being in a relative state of equilibrium, but the "relative" bit is what is the problem.

A state of equilibrium implies a some kind of return to a former state. That has never happened anywhere in the Universe-ever on a planetary scale. The case for a predictable Dynamic Equilibrium also fails as Chaos Theory explains. It's not that the Laws of Thermodynamics are wrong- they certainly are not.

The amount of radiation hitting the outer atmosphere varies according to more than a dozen cycles from decades to tens of thousands of years to tens of millions of years. The chaotic interaction of theses cycles produces such phenomena as Ice Ages and Snowball Earth.

 

The clarity of the atmosphere is Chaotic and unpredictable.

 

The absorbtion/reflection of heat at the surface is dependent on another set of chaotic variables at the surface. 

 

Another set of variables is caused by the Earths own heat produced by radioactive decay which causes the climatic effects caused by Continental Drift and volcanic activity.

 

You are right in saying that the time scales over which of any of these variables act is too great to have any noticeable effect in a lifetime. But as Chaos Theory explains there  is an unpredictability in how multiple variables interact and cause one or more systems to flip or triggers accelerated changes.

 

Millions of weather and temperature observations are made every day and hidden amongst all this is the actual observation that the huge bodies of water Oceans are getting warmer. This directly results in expansion  and therefore sea level rise. Ocean temperature are already known to alter currents and global heat distribution- the weather.

 

Human activity is new. The intensity of Ocean temperature increases are unexpected. 

Is the puny Human effect triggering other systems to behave differently to cause Oceanic warming? 

Are there other variables/systems in play? 

Gradual changes are far more likely than anything catastrophic -for most.

 

 

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5 hours ago, trastrick said:

Because of the requirement of enclosure, and the near ubiquity of gravity, strictly and ideally isolated systems do not actually occur in experiments, or in nature. Though very useful, they are strictly hypothetical.

 

21 hours ago, Carbuncle said:

I was just pointing out that the Earth is not an isolated system so that @trastrick's invocation of the second law of thermodynamics was horse doodah dressed up as haggis.

My bad, let me clarify my statement: the Earth does not remotely resemble an isolated system, not in anyone's wildest imaginings, not if one has spent all afternoon looking at Salvador Dalis in a centrifuge while tripping on acid, not even a little bit. It continually exchanges large chunks of energy with the rest of the universe. The Second Law does not apply to a system consisting of the Earth alone, not even if you put a ribbon round the 'haggis' and call it Jemima.

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