The Consequences of Brexit [part 4]

[L00b 441]

Seema Malhotra (Lab) asked again, but DExEU has again refused to release details of sectoral studies.

 

Adverting to earlier promises of court action in case of refusal, I'd hope for the claim to be ready-sealed, and it'd be nice for HMG to get served today.

 

Accessorily, and somewhat topically, I sealed my fate last night, by accepting my new (EU27) employers' revised offer (you don't ask, you don't get: I asked, and I got ).

 

That's it, no going back, the dice is cast: we're getting off this divided island for good, by end Q4 2017 or very early Q1 2018.

 

"Sigh of relief" does not quite cover it (there's a goodly amount of bitterness and pity, but much less of those than optimism).

[I1L2T3 10]

Seema Malhotra (Lab) asked again, but DExEU has again refused to release details of sectoral studies.

 

Adverting to earlier promises of court action in case of refusal, I'd hope for the claim to be ready-sealed, and it'd be nice for HMG to get served today.

 

Accessorily, and somewhat topically, I sealed my fate last night, by accepting my new (EU27) employers' revised offer (you don't ask, you don't get: I asked, and I got ).

 

That's it, no going back, the dice is cast: we're getting off this divided island for good, by end Q4 2017 or very early Q1 2018.

 

"Sigh of relief" does not quite cover it (there's a goodly amount of bitterness and pity, but much less of those than optimism).

 

Well done Loob.

 

I’m hopefully following suit. Lots of our clients are moving operations offshore, and I hope to follow.

 

Spending plans for 2018/19 are being firmed up now and I’d expect back end of 2019 will see most of the core ops that need to be moved actually done. The announcements in first few months of 2018 are going to shock even the most ardent Brexiter.

 

Wife and kids will already be dual EU/UK nationals whatever happens. I need some residence/work abroad to get my EU citizenship sorted.

[tzijlstra 11]

Seema Malhotra (Lab) asked again, but DExEU has again refused to release details of sectoral studies.

 

Adverting to earlier promises of court action in case of refusal, I'd hope for the claim to be ready-sealed, and it'd be nice for HMG to get served today.

 

Accessorily, and somewhat topically, I sealed my fate last night, by accepting my new (EU27) employers' revised offer (you don't ask, you don't get: I asked, and I got ).

 

That's it, no going back, the dice is cast: we're getting off this divided island for good, by end Q4 2017 or very early Q1 2018.

 

"Sigh of relief" does not quite cover it (there's a goodly amount of bitterness and pity, but much less of those than optimism).

 

Bon Paris? Petit Luxembourg?

[L00b 441]

Spending plans for 2018/19 are being firmed up now and I’d expect back end of 2019 will see most of the core ops that need to be moved actually done. The announcements in first few months of 2018 are going to shock even the most ardent Brexiter.

There's at least two main issues I can see coming up around end March 2018, off the top of my head: residence permit renewals for Brits living and working in EEA countries (Switzerland in particular), which may well be denied depending on where negotiations are by then; and advance bookings of UK airlines for EU landing slots (likewise the associated bookings for EU-bound UK flights), which may have to be made on a short-notice cancellation non-refundable basis (in case the UK's membership of Open Skies falls off a cliff on the back of Brexit/no-deal).

 

There are rumours that UK airlines are currently pressurising the UK government to give them an indemnity about the second issue (i.e. they'll still sell advance bookings for flights post-March 2019, but if those end up not being honoured (flights cancelled) due to how Brexit turns out come March 2019, it will be for the UK taxpayers to refund customers; and if the gvt does not give them that indemnity, they'll simply not sell advance bookings for any EU-bound flight post-March 2019...I'll let you guess the PR fallout from that last one on No.10 ).

Wife and kids will already be dual EU/UK nationals whatever happens. I need some residence/work abroad to get my EU citizenship sorted.

Kid is already dual national, I'm EU, that will leave British Mrs L00b facing the issue come March 2019 (or sooner). But then, not really a worry, because I'll be the breadwinner and comfortably above the local MIT and, if worse should come to worse later on, we can just move over the border (whence I'd be a national resident, even better).

Bon Paris? Petit Luxembourg?

I'm a sucker for small rural places Edited October 31, 2017 by L00b

[tzijlstra 11]

Related to this news - the Bank of England has issued a stern warning that 75,000 banking jobs could disappear in London with 10,000 'on Brexit day' and the others trickling away over the years following.

 

Of course in true ''balanced reporting'' the BBC goes on to explain how London would still be the biggest financial centre in Europe. That is all fine and dandy, but it is the impact of 75,000 high earning individuals in London disappearing - with their trade, that needs to be talked about. We could well be talking about a slippage of trade into the billions, if not more. The total impact on the UK economy will be felt.

[L00b 441]

Related to this news - the Bank of England has issued a stern warning that 75,000 banking jobs could disappear in London with 10,000 'on Brexit day' and the others trickling away over the years following.

 

Of course in true ''balanced reporting'' the BBC goes on to explain how London would still be the biggest financial centre in Europe. That is all fine and dandy, but it is the impact of 75,000 high earning individuals in London disappearing - with their trade, that needs to be talked about. We could well be talking about a slippage of trade into the billions, if not more. The total impact on the UK economy will be felt.

The real story is not the potential loss of x thousands of City jobs and their associated income tax (all non-trivial that it may be): the real story is how many of those x thousands jobs are tied to trading activity under the UK's passporting rights, and the economic cost to the Exchequer of losing the UK's passporting rights (which, I daresay, will be significantly higher than 75,000 high-earning City jobs - possibly orders of magnitude higher).

 

This is what the BoE alluded to, in coded fashion, in its brief ("The Bank of England has asked banks and other financial institutions, such as hedge funds, to provide it with contingency plans in the event of Britain trading with the EU under World Trade Organization rules"): WTO rules are wholly unconcerned by banking (services) activity, that's effectively code for 'what are your plans in case the UK loses its passporting rights'.

Edited October 31, 2017 by L00b

[Car Boot 10]

What is the margin of error in the UKs accounts?

 

For comparison, the UK National Audit Office says material error (including fraud) for the UK government was equivalent to only 0.02% of total expenditure in 2015-16.

 

The EU has a significant material error (including fraud) of 3.8 per cent of total expenditure. The EU accountants also had an ‘adverse opinion’ of the legality and regularity of EU payments, a term which is used only in serious cases of error.

[The Joker 10]

For comparison, the UK National Audit Office says material error (including fraud) for the UK government was equivalent to only 0.02% of total expenditure in 2015-16.

 

Really ?

 

Is that all ?

 

0.02% ?

 

The way the tories are going on about benefit fraud, you’d be forgiven for thinking that 100% of benefit claims were fraudulent

[L00b 441]

For comparison, the UK National Audit Office says material error (including fraud) for the UK government was equivalent to only 0.02% of total expenditure in 2015-16.

 

The EU has a significant material error (including fraud) of 3.8 per cent of total expenditure. The EU accountants also had an ‘adverse opinion’ of the legality and regularity of EU payments, a term which is used only in serious cases of error.

So what's the £490bn hole recently discovered in UK Plc's balance sheet?

 

The statistical error?

[Car Boot 10]

Really ?

 

Is that all ?

 

0.02% ?

 

The way the tories are going on about benefit fraud, you’d be forgiven for thinking that 100% of benefit claims were fraudulent

 

 

Some UK government department budgets have material error rates bigger than the EU budget. But overall UK spending error rates are significantly lower than EU overall spending error rates.

 

---------- Post added 31-10-2017 at 12:55 ----------

 

This happens at small and large companies too. No large company ever has 100% accurate accounts. Just look at the number of amended accounts that get submitted to companies house.

 

The EU is a political and economic union of member states. It is not supposed to be a private profit making company. So why compare it to them?

 

Why is there a special requirement for EU accounts to be 100% error free?

 

There is no "special requirement" for the EU accounts to be 100 per cent error free. But, to be clear of significant material error, they should be 2 per cent (or less) error free.

 

---------- Post added 31-10-2017 at 13:09 ----------

 

So what's the £490bn hole recently discovered in UK Plc's balance sheet?

 

The statistical error?

 

It appears that the Office for National Statistics overestimated UK international assets, and underestimated foreign debt.

 

How this relates to the EU budget is anyone's guess.

 

Statistics gathering and accounts auditing are not comparable.

 

Not even remotely.

Edited October 31, 2017 by Car Boot

[L00b 441]

It appears that the Office for National Statistics overestimated UK international assets, and underestimated foreign debt.

 

Statistics gathering and accounts auditing are not comparable.

 

Not even remotely.

Please explain to me how do you get to determine that such accounting entries as "UK international assets" and "foreign debt" can be "overestimated" or "underestimated", without auditing accounts

How this relates to the EU budget is anyone's guess.

The "EU budget"? I thought we were talking about accounts?

 

You know: assets (including such things as "UK international assets", reserves, etc.), liabilities (including such things "foreign debt"), cashflow, <...>

[I1L2T3 10]

Some UK government department budgets have material error rates bigger than the EU budget. But overall UK spending error rates are significantly lower than EU overall spending error rates.

 

---------- Post added 31-10-2017 at 12:55 ----------

 

 

The EU is a political and economic union of member states. It is not supposed to be a private profit making company. So why compare it to them?

 

There is no "special requirement" for the EU accounts to be 100 per cent error free. But, to be clear of significant material error, they should be 2 per cent (or less) error free.

 

---------- Post added 31-10-2017 at 13:09 ----------

 

 

It appears that the Office for National Statistics overestimated UK international assets, and underestimated foreign debt.

 

How this relates to the EU budget is anyone's guess.

 

Statistics gathering and accounts auditing are not comparable.

 

Not even remotely.

 

Even at 2% it’s still not enough to base the termination of membership on.

 

And your 0.02% is bull. Do you need to be reminded of the repeated errors from our governments: Labour with taking PFI off the books, Tories with their disastrous deficit reduction failures. No way are UK government finances that squeaky clean. Not a hope.