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The Consequences of Brexit [part 4]

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You make it sound as though May,Merkel and Macron can decide between themselves what timetable to adopt.

 

That's not the way it works, despite many Leavers insistence that the EU is some form of draconian dictatorship in fact it's very democratic.

 

Any proposal to alter the timetable would need to be agreed by each of the 27 countries.

 

That may happen but it might not and May, Merkel and Macron aren't going to be making up the rules as they go along.

 

But the other 25 will follow what Macron and Merkel say.

And May-I-please will follow suit with what they want.

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Is this more brexit fantasy?

 

Just keep watching the space. There's more to these negotiations than the EU is willing to let on. They posture well :D

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Since the referendum the pound has been weak prices have risen my brother back in England was only telling about this the other day. Will this settle down soon or later after the UK has left the EU?

 

For what I can understand the DUP want a soft Brexit to remain in the Custom Union and single market to lessen the impact of leaving were May wanted a hard Brexit which to me would be very damaging to the economy. Read online the talks with DUP are difficult but didn't go into detail on what at a rough guess it's Brexit has no country has ever left the EU no one really knows how this will turn out.

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You make it sound as though May,Merkel and Macron can decide between themselves what timetable to adopt.

 

That's not the way it works, despite many Leavers insistence that the EU is some form of draconian dictatorship in fact it's very democratic.

 

Any proposal to alter the timetable would need to be agreed by each of the 27 countries.

 

That may happen but it might not and May, Merkel and Macron aren't going to be making up the rules as they go along.

 

I'm not making a case for Brexit I am simply saying this is how it works at the highest levels of inter-governmental diplomacy. The deadlines don't matter when you've got a political settlement to reach. The minute they start talking about transitional arrangements you know 100% there will be no deadlines. You achieve the objectives of stage 1 before moving onto stage 2 etc.

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For what I can understand the DUP want a soft Brexit to remain in the Custom Union and single market to lessen the impact of leaving were May wanted a hard Brexit which to me would be very damaging to the economy. Read online the talks with DUP are difficult but didn't go into detail on what at a rough guess it's Brexit has no country has ever left the EU no one really knows how this will turn out.

 

The DUP want a soft border between NI and Eire which is difficult to see happening if we leave the customs union.

 

A hard border would destroy the NI economy and damage the Eire economy local to the their side to the border.

 

A hard border would also undermine the peace process and as loopy as the DUP are they aren't quite that loopy. It might also make the people of NI think they may be better off leaving the UK and reunifying Ireland which is totally opposite to the DUP's reason for existing.

 

On the other hand a soft border, makes border control for the UK almost impossible, since anyone wanting to come to the UK just has to get to Dublin and walk up the road. The Dublin government can't do UK border control at their borders since EU travellers will have the right to enter Eire. The UK government will have to do border control either on exit from NI to Britain or at the other end of the journey which is going to delay (ie seriously upset) legitimate travellers to/from NI.

 

Also, depending on what sort of deal we finally end up with then a soft border will likely make it easier to ship goods via Ireland (good for both sides) which is going to undermine British ports and airports (not quite so good for us).

 

Of course, Irish people talk differently to us so Brexiters don't give two hoots about what happens to them. We should be eternally grateful that the EU is insisting we sort this mess out now.

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But the other 25 will follow what Macron and Merkel say.

And May-I-please will follow suit with what they want.

 

Will they?

 

A year or so back every EU country bar one wanted to sign up to a trade deal with Canada which had been negotiated over nearly ten years.

 

Romania who had only been a member of the EU since 2007 didn't like the visa arrangement that they had with Canada so they vetoed it and it had to be renegotiated.

 

What happens if Spain decide they can get Gibraltar back in this scenario?

 

Given the Conservative negotiation technique as shown in the DUP fiasco ( commit yourself publicly to someones support before actually agreeing that support ) Spain may have started eyeing up the Channel Isles and the Isle of Wight!

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Every time we turn on the TV or read a news paper we are being told by people in pin striped suits just how complicated it is for us to leave the European Union . Just tonight we have had the governor of the bank of England spouting off how we all will be worse off when the deal is done .

 

On top of that we have politicians from all parties bowing and scraping to the unelected Parliament in Brussels practically begging them to not charge us billions to be free of their corrupt union.

 

Why ?????? I ask . why not just do what the working people of England and Wales have told them to do and tell these unelected European bandwaggoners to get stuffed .

 

The so called union is finished due to open borders letting all and sundry flood Europe and by doing so this has lead to the situation that we find ourselves in today with terrorism in every major Country due to impossible to police border controls.

 

If Ireland and Scotland think that they will be better of in the so called Union then let them .

Let Northern Ireland unite and let Scotland go there own way .

 

As for the majority who voted to leave.!!!!! then do as we say and just leave, tell the pin stripped brigade to stop talking and if not then let us get leaders that will actually do as the majority in our Country has instructed them to do.

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Every time we turn on the TV or read a news paper we are being told by people in pin striped suits just how complicated it is for us to leave the European Union . Just tonight we have had the governor of the bank of England spouting off how we all will be worse off when the deal is done .

 

On top of that we have politicians from all parties bowing and scraping to the unelected Parliament in Brussels practically begging them to not charge us billions to be free of their corrupt union.

 

Why ?????? I ask . why not just do what the working people of England and Wales have told them to do and tell these unelected European bandwaggoners to get stuffed .

 

The so called union is finished due to open borders letting all and sundry flood Europe and by doing so this has lead to the situation that we find ourselves in today with terrorism in every major Country due to impossible to police border controls.

 

If Ireland and Scotland think that they will be better of in the so called Union then let them .

Let Ireland unite and let Scotland go its own way .

 

As for the majority who voted to leave.!!!!! then do as we say and just leave, tell the pin stripped brigade to stop talking and if not then let us get leaders that will actually do as the majority in our Country has instructed them to do.

 

Well if you want chaos and for us to plunge into a recession then that would be the way to go. You dont really care about the economic welfare of the UK though do you.

 

---------- Post added 20-06-2017 at 22:42 ----------

 

Is this more brexit fantasy?

 

Its just plain ignorance and stupidity. Hardly uncommon on these forums.

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But the other 25 will follow what Macron and Merkel say.

And May-I-please will follow suit with what they want.

 

I'm not making a case for Brexit I am simply saying this is how it works at the highest levels of inter-governmental diplomacy. The deadlines don't matter when you've got a political settlement to reach. The minute they start talking about transitional arrangements you know 100% there will be no deadlines. You achieve the objectives of stage 1 before moving onto stage 2 etc.

 

Not the way that it can happen given the EU rules.

 

In business terms yes, but this is business and politics entwined which complicates matters.

 

If it gets to March 2019 and no deal has been agreed there will be two choices, hard Brexit and WTO rules or an extension agreed by all 27 member nations.

 

Hopefully the latter, but no guarantee that it will be so.

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Every time we turn on the TV or read a news paper we are being told by people in pin striped suits just how complicated it is for us to leave the European Union . Just tonight we have had the governor of the bank of England spouting off how we all will be worse off when the deal is done .

 

On top of that we have politicians from all parties bowing and scraping to the unelected Parliament in Brussels practically begging them to not charge us billions to be free of their corrupt union.

 

Why ?????? I ask . why not just do what the working people of England and Wales have told them to do and tell these unelected European bandwaggoners to get stuffed .

 

The so called union is finished due to open borders letting all and sundry flood Europe and by doing so this has lead to the situation that we find ourselves in today with terrorism in every major Country due to impossible to police border controls.

 

If Ireland and Scotland think that they will be better of in the so called Union then let them .

Let Northern Ireland unite and let Scotland go there own way .

 

As for the majority who voted to leave.!!!!! then do as we say and just leave, tell the pin stripped brigade to stop talking and if not then let us get leaders that will actually do as the majority in our Country has instructed them to do.

 

Like a stuck record, playing Nigel Farage's greatest hits.

 

Nobody believes any of that crap any more.

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Every time we turn on the TV or read a news paper we are being told by people in pin striped suits just how complicated it is for us to leave the European Union . Just tonight we have had the governor of the bank of England spouting off how we all will be worse off when the deal is done .

 

On top of that we have politicians from all parties bowing and scraping to the unelected Parliament in Brussels practically begging them to not charge us billions to be free of their corrupt union.

 

Why ?????? I ask . why not just do what the working people of England and Wales have told them to do and tell these unelected European bandwaggoners to get stuffed .

 

The so called union is finished due to open borders letting all and sundry flood Europe and by doing so this has lead to the situation that we find ourselves in today with terrorism in every major Country due to impossible to police border controls.

 

If Ireland and Scotland think that they will be better of in the so called Union then let them .

Let Northern Ireland unite and let Scotland go there own way .

 

As for the majority who voted to leave.!!!!! then do as we say and just leave, tell the pin stripped brigade to stop talking and if not then let us get leaders that will actually do as the majority in our Country has instructed them to do.

 

While you were watching the news item with the Governor of the BoE talking did you also hear Philip Hammond the Chancellor of the Exchequer say his piece?

 

He said that whilst the people of the UK voted Leave they did not vote to be poorer.

 

Maybe you disagree with that statement, maybe you'd prefer to be living in a shop doorway and begging for change so long as you were out of the bogyman EU.

 

But you know what, most of us wouldn't.

 

" Why not do what the working people of England and Wales told them to do. "

 

Perhaps because the working people of England and Wales are not the sharpest tools in the box?

 

Perhaps because the working people of England and Wales voted leave but didn't have the ability to explain exactly how that leaving should be achieved?

 

Hard Brexit, all current trade agreements null and void, huge increase in the cost of the 40% of food we import, huge increase in the cost of the 40% of energy we import, no increase in wages, job losses, homes lost, cars repossessed recession and depression included.

 

Agreed Brexit, pragmatic decisions, mutual trade deals maintained, still bringing some pain to the poorest, but lessening it and providing an opportunity for us to get our act together and try to avoid the worst excesses of the decision to leave the wealthiest Trade Bloc in the World.

 

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiempO8t83UAhXFB8AKHXqpAsIQFghDMAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.weforum.org%2Fagenda%2F2016%2F05%2Fworld-free-trade-areas-everything-you-need-to-know%2F&usg=AFQjCNE2fscSR4QMUzfUl5cLxoIeddK1Ag

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Hard Brexit, all current trade agreements null and void, huge increase in the cost of the 40% of food we import, huge increase in the cost of the 40% of energy we import, no increase in wages, job losses, homes lost, cars repossessed recession and depression included.

 

You cannot have a hard Brexit + a deal. They are incompatible.

 

You will have noticed that much of the politics within Europe is about fighting off the winds of change. Politicians love nothing more than maintaining the status quo. This dynamic will certainly feed into Brexit negotiations. Both the UK and the EU will want to maintain the status quo as much as possible to minimise disruptions. This means replicating our current EU arrangements to the furthest extent possible. If this is achieved then you've struck a deal. The fact both parties have now entered into negotiations would mean both sides are committed to striking a deal and I'm pretty confident this is now the only option going foreword.

 

A 'no deal' scenario would mean a substantial departure from the status quo. ie no negotiations from the outset with no intention of striking a deal. This is what a "hard" Brexit would look like and there's very little chance of this happening. In fact the only way of delivering a 'no deal' outcome would be for the hardcore Euroskeptic MPs to seize control of the Tory party. I don't see that happening anytime soon.

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