The Consequences of Brexit [part 4]

[apelike 10]

Try not to be so naive. They are steps ahead of you in their thinking, and now exactly how to push your buttons.

 

Its not about being naive but understanding the problem as I don't use social media and certainly dont trust the press. To me the problem is that social media is already here and just like the countless adverts I get bombarded with on the internet it will be open to, as tzijlstra put it, malpractice.

 

This is something that will have to be accepted as well as the countless bits of "fake news" that seem to spring up because social media can be used this way. Its another example of a genie out of its bottle.

[ENG601PM 10]

Where finance in particular is concerned, the hire of immigrant talent is an order of magnitude less important than retaining passporting rights: you don't need to hire (and possibly import) any talent, for work which you cannot do.

 

No deal or CETA doesn't maintain such passporting rights. Nothing short of remaining in the EEA has any chance of maintaining such passporting rights. No retaliation or vindictiveness from the EU, simply the EU Law governing such passporting rights.

 

Which is what makes Davis' noises about easing foreign talent into the City post-Brexit all the more redundant. He should know that City banks are not buying into his rethoric, when they clearly tell him to get his skates on doing rather than talking. Or perhaps it's showing the scale of his delusion. Who knows? <not that I care, either way >

 

You appear to be making the all too common mistake of assuming that the UK finance industry is merely a convenience. The reality is that it is a necessity and it can't just be unwound because of the EU's politics because EU business is completely reliant on the UK's preeminent finance industry. Europe would literally go bust overnight if the UK's finance industry couldn't operate in the EU.

 

Here's a simple thing that puts it into perspective; the City employs more people than live in Frankfurt.

 

It's a complete fantasy (a delusion if you will) to imagine that the UK finance industry is going to decamp in 2019, passporting or no passporting.

[L00b 441]

You appear to be making the all too common mistake of assuming that the UK finance industry is merely a convenience. The reality is that it is a necessity and it can't just be unwound because of the EU's politics because EU business is completely reliant on the UK's preeminent finance industry. Europe would literally go bust overnight if the UK's finance industry couldn't operate in the EU.

 

Here's a simple thing that puts it into perspective; the City employs more people than live in Frankfurt.

 

It's a complete fantasy (a delusion if you will) to imagine that the UK finance industry is going to decamp in 2019, passporting or no passporting.

Very much on the contrary, I am all too aware of the imbrication of EU (incl. respective EU27) financial affairs with and through the City.

 

[You, in turn, appear to be making the all too common mistake of assuming that it's job numbers I'm making arguments about, where anything to do with the City is concerned It isn't. At all]

 

Brexit is the solid-platinum opportunity which Brussels has awaited for years (decades even, by now), to help get a better statutory handhold of intra-EU and outra-EU (-but involving EU-based entities) financial movements, and to help put an end to borderline-legal fiscal dumping between EU member states.

 

Put it that way: the City is now going to lose its 'turnplate' role of interfacing the internal EU financial system with the rest of the world. Brussels couldn't touch it for it, nor could the EU Parliament move forward with some degree of fiscal harmonisation (to the extent required to harmonise the Single Market still further), so long as the UK held on to those rights. Different kettle of fish once passporting rights are repatriated from the UK, because that's exactly what this 'turnplate' role is contingent and hinged upon.

 

I haven't claimed, nor suggested, that the UK finance industry is going to "decamp in 2019" (as in, all of it). Just that, without passporting rights, the UK finance industry is going to lose much of its relevance for the EU and non-EU people who use it in any financial business crossing the common EU27 border: NYSE and other third party turnplates are rubbing their hands at the prospect at least as much as Paris and Frankfurt. This is the reason why 000s of City jobs are not going to end up in the EU27, but 'back' in NY, Singapore and others (and also why many of the larger City banks have long gone public about this ("NY, not EU27") as well).

 

Whether it's the EU's gain or not, in the end it's still the UK's loss (I believe I've already opined on the notion that the UK could turn into a tax haven on the shores of the EU: about as much chances of that happening -and lasting- as a snowball's chance in hell...How so? Well, does the UK want all these FTAs with the G20, or not? Guess what will feature prominently amongst the G20's red lines? )

 

Rolling all that back to the context of immigrant talent, which is what I was on about before this aside about City, some immigrant talent will undoubtedly still find its way there, just as much as it already goes to Singapore, NY, Paris, Frankfurt <etc.> Just not in the same proportions, once the City activity reduces to reflect the loss of passporting rights. Same goes rippling for the support services (tech, legal, etc.).

Edited November 16, 2017 by L00b

[I1L2T3 10]

Its not about being naive but understanding the problem as I don't use social media and certainly dont trust the press. To me the problem is that social media is already here and just like the countless adverts I get bombarded with on the internet it will be open to, as tzijlstra put it, malpractice.

 

This is something that will have to be accepted as well as the countless bits of "fake news" that seem to spring up because social media can be used this way. Its another example of a genie out of its bottle.

 

It’s here to stay and it’s a powerful platform for disseminating news, information and promoting ideas.

 

It’s about understanding how it can be abused. We all know it has been abused.

[tzijlstra 11]

Its not about being naive but understanding the problem as I don't use social media and certainly dont trust the press. To me the problem is that social media is already here and just like the countless adverts I get bombarded with on the internet it will be open to, as tzijlstra put it, malpractice.

 

This is something that will have to be accepted as well as the countless bits of "fake news" that seem to spring up because social media can be used this way. Its another example of a genie out of its bottle.

 

We agree on this, the only solution to this problem is making users of social media more aware of what their impact is and how they are actually helping malpractice.

 

A simple example is this - during the London terror incident with a lorry on one of the bridges, a muslima is seen walking through the sea of injured and dead, this was picked up by one of the stealth-organisations operating bot-networks and produced into a Facebook post on one of their 'groups' - these groups in general are followed by people who sympathise with the far right and shared as an example of bad islam.

 

Once they did that, their friends and family could do the same, the post starts to accelerate in the public cognitive and gets picked up by major news outlets (Daily Mail, Express, Record etc.) who make it into a 'news-story' to attract clicks on their web-page.

 

Each step on their own is rather innocent, it is the manipulation of information that creates the negative side-effect. This lady in fact was severely traumatised whilst also helping people, it had become too much for her so she tried to pause and walk towards safety. A perfectly natural situation, but the 'snapshot' suggested she didn't care about the victims: a perfectly vicious narrative.

 

As a society we need to understand this (meme) effect and there is a broad educational need to help the people who might share this and propagate the story to judge the value of a post.

 

EDIT - as an interesting side-note, the younger generation (millenials or whatever you want to call them) tend to be far more able to distinguish between truth and nonsense on social media. For them a post like that doesn't mean a lot and they probably won't share it. It is the older generation of social media users that don't make that distinction. Although there is no empirical evidence for a correlation, it is an interesting observation that it was the older generation that was more feverish about Brexit.

Edited November 16, 2017 by tzijlstra

[Car Boot 10]

The Boss of Goldman Sachs, the bank that controls the world, has called for another EU referendum. Lloyd Blankfein, who declared in an interview that as a banker "I'm doing God's work", wants the UK to vote again on EU membership.

 

This means that the UK will, sooner rather than later, be asked to vote once more because the first vote gave the wrong answer.

 

Just like the EU, Goldman Sachs is an ultra capitalist big beast that is arrogant, insulting and undemocratic.

Edited November 16, 2017 by Car Boot

[Jeffrey Shaw 90]

True. Wasn't it Ireland that has twice had to repeat its Referendums as the first of each produced the 'wrong' result?

Not much democracy there.

[Litotes 63]

True. Wasn't it Ireland that has twice had to repeat its Referendums as the first of each produced the 'wrong' result?

Not much democracy there.

 

Why not? In the end the public got what they voted for ... in the end...

 

Are you sure? Are you sure you're sure...? OK then!

[andyofborg 11]

True. Wasn't it Ireland that has twice had to repeat its Referendums as the first of each produced the 'wrong' result?

Not much democracy there.

 

isnt democracy about people voting?

[Litotes 63]

True. Wasn't it Ireland that has twice had to repeat its Referendums as the first of each produced the 'wrong' result?

Not much democracy there.

 

Britain voted for the EU - now it has voted against... anyone else see a similarity...

 

Maybe there'll be a third one...

[chalga 10]

True. Wasn't it Ireland that has twice had to repeat its Referendums as the first of each produced the 'wrong' result?

Not much democracy there.

 

Please,for the sake of all of us in the EU,go out and stay out,there's a good little country.

[Guest]

Please,for the sake of all of us in the EU,go out and stay out,there's a good little country.

 

Suck on this. https://youtu.be/BPDzbA14UEk