The Consequences of Brexit [part 4]

[phil752 10]

The real reasons are of massive consequence. The longer this insane Tory ideological spat continues the more important it will be.

 

It just requires somebody with big enough balls to build the narrative. That wouldn't mean we'd avoid Brexit but it's going to help avoid a hard Brexit.

 

still not sure what you mean by hard soft brexit

[I1L2T3 10]

Jeremy Corbyn

 

He's picked up all these Remain voters and now he doesn't know what to do with them!

 

I'm just as worried about Corbyn and McDonnell now. They see Brexit as a route to what Is see as excessive state intervention that is way beyond the obviously popular and sensible policies around healthcare and transport.

 

It's the law of unintended consequences - most Brexiters would not even have considered that risk. And I do fear that if either side gets to start implementing their plans in earnest then we'll be in a situation where risk of loss of power for them triggers anti-democratic impulses to stay in power. The best case is that we end up with a wildly swinging pendulum between ideologies where each parliament is spent dismantling the work of the previous parliament.

 

I think Brexit only promises instability. There's no way we'll be better off from it.

 

---------- Post added 26-09-2017 at 08:00 ----------

 

still not sure what you mean by hard soft brexit

 

Watch Theresa May's speech last week.

[Lockdoctor 10]

still not sure what you mean by hard soft brexit

Soft means still being part of EU.

[L00b 441]

I'm just as worried about Corbyn and McDonnell now. They see Brexit as a route to what Is see as excessive state intervention that is way beyond the obviously popular and sensible policies around healthcare and transport.

I saw a theory elsewhere, that the problem of left-leaning politicians with the EU, is that the EU is too strong on workers rights: it has brought in rules and regulations in favour of workers (parental leave, maximum working hours, minimum holidays, safety regulations <...>) relatively effortlessly, that should otherwise have had to be fought for by the workers led by the Corbyns and McDonnell of this island and, in doing so, the EU actually usurped the political left and made it redundant. So for Corbyn, exiting the EU is an existential fight.

I think Brexit only promises instability. There's no way we'll be better off from it.

An opinion recently seconded by Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman.

 

But that is all irrelevant to the average Leaver, 51% of whom would be happy to see a family member lose their job so that Brexit will happen, and 61% of whom believe that significant damage to the British economy is a price worth paying for Brexit.

 

Self-harm isn't an issue for Leave voters, so that's a drum you need not continue banging: they're unlikely to start coping on before Brexit begins to affect their pensions payments and their free healthcare (...and even then, I'm still not sure that they would start to cop on).

 

So, well, you know...just leave them to it

Edited September 26, 2017 by L00b

[Carlinate 10]

The people who voted out are the ones who had the balls. Accept we lost. End of.

 

---------- Post added 25-09-2017 at 23:14 ----------

 

Go away troll.

 

The people who voted out were the ones who had no concept of the workings and benefits of the EU, nor of the consequences to the country of leaving.

 

That fact has been proven on this forum beyond doubt, because not one Brexiteer can provide a rational and reasoned argument for their action.

 

As for you. not only are you unable to understand what purpose a forum serves as you continually 'beg' for an end to debate, you also have no idea what constitutes a troll.

 

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=6&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwilibajxMLWAhUJCcAKHX6AD-EQFghRMAU&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lifewire.com%2Fwhat-is-internet-trolling-3485891&usg=AFQjCNHtiiSal7NgGPhaizRQJTrAVmIslA

 

Read that definition and maybe you will realise that if anyone is trolling here it's the poster telling everyone that it's over and the Remainers had no balls.

Edited September 26, 2017 by Carlinate

[Magilla 510]

Self-harm isn't an issue for Leave voters, so that's a drum you need not continue banging: they're unlikely to start coping on before Brexit begins to affect their pensions payments and their free healthcare (...and even then, I'm still not sure that they would start to cop on).

 

Just been looking at the money made from "passporting", GBP 60 - 67 billion (3.5% of GDP) in UK taxes each year. That's 4 fold our EU contribution (rebate notwithstanding), and around half the entire budget for the NHS, gone if we have no deal.

 

So yeah, a hard Brexit & the first thing going south will be the NHS, social care & pensions.

 

Hence May is begging the EU to talk about trade, she knows how bad it really is. Meanwhile, Barnier has told Davis to get stuffed, it's citizen's rights, financial agreement and Ireland before any hope of a trade discussion.

 

So.now it's accept the process agreed by the EU27 or **** off and impoverish yourselves trying to work deals through the WTO approach (which will be extraordinarily catastrophic).

 

Interesting times ahead.

Edited September 26, 2017 by Magilla

[L00b 441]

Just been looking at the money made from "passporting", GBP 60 - 67 billion (3.5% of GDP) in UK taxes each year. That's 4 fold our EU contribution (rebate notwithstanding), and around half the entire budget for the NHS, gone if we have no deal.

 

So yeah, a hard Brexit & the first thing going south will be the NHS, social care & pensions. <...>

 

Interesting times ahead.

Hard or soft Brexit irrespective, passporting is gone anyway, come 01 April 2019 (or 01 April 2021 if the UK gets its transition...but that's not looking too good so far).

 

This (along with the Irish border, Open Skies, relocating EU agencies and replacing them for the sake of continuing regulatory compatibility in respect of export markets, etc, etc, etc. and how same would affect the 'power' of the UK in negotiations with the EU) was all predicted and discussed (including on here) at length, long before the referendum.

 

But was conveniently simplified and hand-waved away by the various Leave campaigns and the Brexit-pushing broadsheets under the catchy Project Fear badge.

 

In that context, times haven't changed one bit: they've been interesting ever since 24 June 2016

 

Neither have the issues constituting Project Fear changed, nor the UK's balance of power in the negotiations by reason of same: the UK is still in the same position, between the Devil of a cliff-edge exit and the deep European-blue sea of the EU27's red lines.

Edited September 26, 2017 by L00b
added article link

[Lockdoctor 10]

The people who voted out were the ones who had no concept of the workings and benefits of the EU, nor of the consequences to the country of leaving.

 

That fact has been proven on this forum beyond doubt, because not one Brexiteer can provide a rational and reasoned argument for their action.

 

As for you. not only are you unable to understand what purpose a forum serves as you continually 'beg' for an end to debate, you also have no idea what constitutes a troll.

 

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=6&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwilibajxMLWAhUJCcAKHX6AD-EQFghRMAU&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lifewire.com%2Fwhat-is-internet-trolling-3485891&usg=AFQjCNHtiiSal7NgGPhaizRQJTrAVmIslA

 

Read that definition and maybe you will realise that if anyone is trolling here it's the poster telling everyone that it's over and the Remainers had no balls.

You have no idea how much knowledge any of the voters had in the workings of the eu. Gisela Stuart was chair of the leave campaign and had witnessed the workings of the eu for herself. Gisela Stuart has far more knowledge and understanding of the workings of the eu than someone like you, who relies on google to construct a post.

 

Referendums are rare. The people who take part, don't have to take some kind of knowledge test before they are allowed to vote. Most people who voted remain, will have had less knowledge about the workings and benefits of the eu than Gisela Stuart, who voted leave.

[Carlinate 10]

You have no idea how much knowledge any of the voters had in the workings of the eu. Gisela Stuart was chair of the leave campaign and had witnessed the workings of the eu for herself. Gisela Stuart has far more knowledge and understanding of the workings of the eu than someone like you, who relies on google to construct a post.

 

Referendums are rare. The people who take part, don't have to take some kind of knowledge test before they are allowed to vote. Most people who voted remain, will have had less knowledge about the workings and benefits of the eu than Gisela Stuart, who voted leave.

 

Okay, let's put it to the test shall we?

 

Please explain precisely what the UK will be able to do once free of the EU that it was unable to do whilst a member state.

 

Then explain how that will compensate for the losses which we are going to sustain such as the loss of the £60 Billion + 'Passporting' tax revenue referred to in posts 2006 and 2007 above.

 

That is only one loss we are going to have to take.

 

So go ahead,explain the benefits we are going to get that we didn't have as EU members.

[Lockdoctor 10]

Okay, let's put it to the test shall we?

 

Please explain precisely what the UK will be able to do once free of the EU that it was unable to do whilst a member state.

 

Then explain how that will compensate for the losses which we are going to sustain such as the loss of the £60 Billion + 'Passporting' tax revenue referred to in posts 2006 and 2007 above.

 

That is only one loss we are going to have to take.

 

So go ahead,explain the benefits we are going to get that we didn't have as EU members.

I voted remain. The UK will be able to negotiate it's own trade deals. The UK will be able to decide which EU laws it wishes to keep or change. The UK will be able to use the money it now pays into the EU budget, in whatever way the Government of the decides to. The UK will be able to decide which EU citizens, it wishes to live and work here.

[tinfoilhat 11]

I voted remain. The UK will be able to negotiate it's own trade deals. The UK will be able to decide which EU laws it wishes to keep or change. The UK will be able to use the money it now pays into the EU budget, in whatever way the Government of the decides to. The UK will be able to decide which EU citizens, it wishes to live and work here.

 

Do you think we will be negeoiating from a strong position or do you thnk the like of india, china and a trump-led USA will look to wipe the floor with us?

[Carlinate 10]

I voted remain. The UK will be able to negotiate it's own trade deals. The UK will be able to decide which EU laws it wishes to keep or change. The UK will be able to use the money it now pays into the EU budget, in whatever way the Government of the decides to. The UK will be able to decide which EU citizens, it wishes to live and work here.

 

The UK will have to renegotiate all the trade deals which were put in place when we had the strength and attraction of a 500 Million population market place to ensure a good deal.

 

They will have to be renegotiated from a position of weakness, the other party will know how vital it is for us to strike a deal.

 

The UK will have to continue to obey whichever EU laws form part of trade deals involving the EU.

EU laws they can disregard will be workers protection,job security, health and safety etc.

 

The money that the UK now pays into the EU budget is a pittance in comparison to the money lost by implementation of Brexit.

 

Do you bother to read other posters comments?

 

Magilla explains in post 2006 above that the 60 Billion that we are going to lose when 'passporting' rights are removed from the City is four times our annual contribution to the EU and fifty percent of the NHS budget.

 

Continuing to remain part of the single market is hugely important to business in the UK, 44% of our exports go to the EU.

 

In order to retain single market access we will have to agree to free movement of labour to and from the EU as at present.

 

As we are not in the Schengen area and current EU rules permit the removal of non nationals after 90 days if they don't have a job and can't support themselves then we have control at the moment. That the UK government doesn't choose to enforce that control is hardly the fault of the EU is it?

 

You claim that you voted Remain, for what reason did you do so?