Jump to content

The Consequences of Brexit (part 3)

Recommended Posts

Yes. They love telling us what might be going to happen.

Less fond of telling us what actually has happened. Usually because they failed to predict it.

I spend half my time on this thread pointing out the difference. Once more:

 

A prediction is not a fact.

 

When I refer to positive Brexit predictions I am making the point that the experts and their useless predictions are no longer uniformly on the Brexit is a disaster bandwagon. This is necessary because the remain side don't all understand this yet.

I am not reversing myself on the position that economists' predictions are crap.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
A prediction is not a fact.

 

.

 

I predict more people would rather holiday in Spain than Blackpool. :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes. They love telling us what might be going to happen.

Less fond of telling us what actually has happened. Usually because they failed to predict it.

I spend half my time on this thread pointing out the difference. Once more:

 

A prediction is not a fact.

 

When I refer to positive Brexit predictions I am making the point that the experts and their useless predictions are no longer uniformly on the Brexit is a disaster bandwagon. This is necessary because the remain side don't all understand this yet.

I am not reversing myself on the position that economists' predictions are crap.

 

So everybody can safely discount your prediction that the UK would become part of a centralised EU/Euro/Ever closer union. as this is the final destination of the EU.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

A sudden fall in the currency is never good news. There is a large thing staring you right the face.

 

 

a fall in the value of a currency can be excellent news, if that currency is over-valued. However, countries such as Greece, trapped within the eurozone, can have no such outcome.

 

---------- Post added 04-04-2017 at 12:25 ----------

 

No NF, that is not what you said before. Every man and his dog said the EU wouldn`t be of a mind to give us a good deal, it`d be illogical for them to do so. But you said in a post last year* that the UK have always been semi detached from the EU so were actually fairly pleased to be rid of us, so, contrary to logic, we`d get a deal as good, or almost as good, as being members.

 

* Very annoyingly I can`t find the original post, is that because the topic has been closed so the search functions don`t work fully ? Anyway, it was in response to me saying there`s no chance of a good trade deal (heavily implying more or less a free trade deal), and never was. So everything Leave said during the referendum campaign was another very serious lie.

 

 

 

 

It will be noted that none of the Brexiteers have offered to apologise if the campaign they supported is proved to have been lies.

 

What I said was that there will be a lot of animosity directed towards the UK in the negotiations. However, the final outcome is likely to be positive for the UK, because eventually we will be free of the EU, despite the efforts of the latter to keep us entangled and shackled to its various policies and institutions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
a fall in the value of a currency can be excellent news, if that currency is over-valued. However, countries such as Greece, trapped within the eurozone, can have no such outcome.

 

---------- Post added 04-04-2017 at 12:25 ----------

 

 

What I said was that there will be a lot of animosity directed towards the UK in the negotiations. However, the final outcome is likely to be positive for the UK, because eventually we will be free of the EU, despite the efforts of the latter to keep us entangled and shackled to its various policies and institutions.

 

The UK are wanting access to its single market as far as I can see,one you just left,so the only party I can see wanting to tangle themselves is you.

 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/04/uk-jobs-merkel-juncker-euro-clearing-eu-manfred-weber-brexit

 

Bladdy'ell,the bumpy road,hang on there.:hihi:

Edited by chalga

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes. They love telling us what might be going to happen.

Less fond of telling us what actually has happened. Usually because they failed to predict it.

I spend half my time on this thread pointing out the difference. Once more:

 

A prediction is not a fact.

 

When I refer to positive Brexit predictions I am making the point that the experts and their useless predictions are no longer uniformly on the Brexit is a disaster bandwagon. This is necessary because the remain side don't all understand this yet.

I am not reversing myself on the position that economists' predictions are crap.

 

I am on record as saying I don`t think Brexit will be a disaster. For what it`s worth I think, in the long term, the country will "only" be slightly worse off, but more so in the medium term. If that turns out to be true I`m reasonably confident that enough people would have voted the other way so as to reverse the Referendum result.

I would point out that economics is not the only reason that I feel the UK is better off in the EU.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The UK are wanting access to its single market as far as I can see,one you just left,so the only party I can see wanting to tangle themselves is you.

 

 

All WTO countries have access to the single market. Unless you define all forms of international trade as entanglement, then I don't see what the problem is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Justin Smith said :

No NF, that is not what you said before. Every man and his dog said the EU wouldn`t be of a mind to give us a good deal, it`d be illogical for them to do so. But you said in a post last year* that the UK have always been semi detached from the EU so were actually fairly pleased to be rid of us, so, contrary to logic, we`d get a deal as good, or almost as good, as being members.

 

* Very annoyingly I can`t find the original post, is that because the topic has been closed so the search functions don`t work fully ? Anyway, it was in response to me saying there`s no chance of a good trade deal (heavily implying more or less a free trade deal), and never was. So everything Leave said during the referendum campaign was another very serious lie.

 

What I said was that there will be a lot of animosity directed towards the UK in the negotiations. However, the final outcome is likely to be positive for the UK, because eventually we will be free of the EU, despite the efforts of the latter to keep us entangled and shackled to its various policies and institutions.

 

No Nigel, that is NOT what you said. Months ago I made the point that there is no way the EU will give us a deal anywhere near as good as we`ve got now and gave a whole load of logical reasons for why that was , plus the fact they`re, let`s be honest, ******off with us. That`s just human nature, who can blames them ?

Your answer was something like : On no, it`ll not be that bad, the UK has always been the least enthusiastic member of the EU and in some ways they`ll be pleased to get rid of us.

 

Obviously I do not agree with all this guff about "entangled" and "shackled". I would more say "sheltered" from companies like Google and loose cannons like Donald Trump.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
All WTO countries have access to the single market. Unless you define all forms of international trade as entanglement, then I don't see what the problem is.

 

May wants tarriff free trading with the EU,what has the UK got to offer as a trade off to the EU for that,seeing as they have been told no cherry picking,and no better deal outside the EU than inside?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
All WTO countries have access to the single market. Unless you define all forms of international trade as entanglement, then I don't see what the problem is.
  • All countries have access to the single market.
  • All WTO countries have better ('MFN') access to the single market.
  • All WTO countries with an EU FTA have still better (than MFN) access to the single market.
  • All EFTA countries have next-best (better than EU FTA) access to the single market.
  • All EU countries have the best possible access to the single market.

The UK is currently an EU member still, so currently enjoys the best possible access, same as it had for decades.

 

According to the government, and any interpretation of the referendum result notwithstanding, the EU and EFTA options are out because Brexit means Brexit sorry ECJ still in the way with either. So that's the 2 best access levels out of the window, period.

 

'No deal' means WTO without FTA (at best), so that's basically a step up from the most basic, fully-tariffed level on the above list.

 

An FTA-like deal with the EU looks highly improbable within 2 years, by all respectable accounts (government, Brussels, committee MPs lately). But it is the end objective, so interim/transitional deal aside, the UK looks to end up halfway on the above ladder. At best.

 

Hope that clears the 'access to the single market' definitional issue once and for all :)

 

Today's popcorn muncher is the EU Parliament's majority political group coming clean early about binning the City's euro-clearing business out of London with, according to varying estimates, between 100k and 232k jobs (and the associated £70bn-or-thereabouts annual tax take) alongside it. Link in chalga's post #931 above, for those who are bothered. The EU is "taking back control" of its money business. Nothing surprising there at all, it was right near the top of Project Fear's very first list of Brexit's most likely consequences, going back months before the 2016 referendum.

Edited by L00b

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Justin Smith said :

No NF, that is not what you said before. Every man and his dog said the EU wouldn`t be of a mind to give us a good deal, it`d be illogical for them to do so. But you said in a post last year* that the UK have always been semi detached from the EU so were actually fairly pleased to be rid of us, so, contrary to logic, we`d get a deal as good, or almost as good, as being members .

 

Oh yes, this is it :

 

Your assumption is that, within other member states, their is a latent propensity to wish to leave the EU. However, all the available evidence, shown by public opinion surveys in individual member countries, proves that this assumption is false. It is certainly true that public dissatisfaction with the EU has been rising in many member states. However, this dissatisfaction is by no means to be equated with a desire for exit, regardless of what right-wing nationalist parties want. The 'example' set by the UK is no real example, because the British case is sui generis, in that the UK has always been an awkward partner for the EU. Doubts about the wisdom of our membership have a very long genealogy, in ways which have no parallel in other member states.

An amicable and mutually beneficial deal in the negotiations would not trigger a mass bolting towards the exit door (as the chances that any member state would opt for this are remote). However, a punishment strategy would be likely to do untold damage to the economies of the member states and indeed to the EU project itself. Let us hope that real logic prevails.

 

Quote from the BBC website during the campaign :

"They [the Leave campaign] say that because of the strength of the UK economy and the need for EU countries to continue trading freely with the UK, Britain would be in a very strong position to get a deal that exempted the UK from free movement and single market regulations while allowing free access to the single market."

 

Can I just check, are you still saying that ?

 

Lastly, even if one was to accept your position that giving the UK access to the single market without paying in anything or accepting free movement wouldn't mean other EU members would want the same thing, what would Switzerland and Norway think ? What would they then demand ? Or are you still saying the same (rather arrogant) thing the Leave lot said in the campaign "we`re more important than those countries", so we`ll get what we want.

Edited by Justin Smith

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Today's popcorn muncher is the EU Parliament's majority political group coming clean early about binning the City's euro-clearing business out of London with, according to varying estimates, between 100k and 232k jobs (and the associated £70bn-or-thereabouts annual tax take) alongside it. Link in chalga's post #931 above, for those who are bothered. The EU is "taking back control" of its money business. Nothing surprising there at all, it was right near the top of Project Fear's very first list of Brexit's most likely consequences, going back months before the 2016 referendum.

 

Now remind me again why I left the UK.....:)

 

Pigeons are coming home to roost indeed....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.