The Consequences of Brexit (part 3)

[tinfoilhat 11]

I guess that the Brexiteers didn't consider the fact that the Gibraltar question would be raised - one which the Government cannot really back down on, as if Gib goes, then what's next? the Falklands? the Channel Islands? Scotland? (oh yes I forgot)...

 

This is yet another small item that wasn't considered when they decided to give David Cameron a kicking through the referendum without thinking through the consequences.

 

Still, to me that is Leave through and through - "I don't care about anyone else, I'm all right Jacques, I've got my £350M a week to keep me happy".

 

This is where the complete lack of opposition is writ large. No corbyn (surprise) and just tim Farron being a typical lib dem (nowt wrong with that). Johnson or May or somebody needs to defuse this. Tom Watson just criticises without putting forward any coherent alternatives - just what ever the tories are doing is wrong. It's sad.

 

And who the **** listens to Michael Howard any more anyway? Nobody listened to him when he was leader of the tories, why should we bother now?

[apelike 10]

I guess that the Brexiteers didn't consider the fact that the Gibraltar question would be raised - one which the Government cannot really back down on, as if Gib goes, then what's next? the Falklands? the Channel Islands? Scotland? (oh yes I forgot)...

 

If Gibraltar had a choice of staying in the EU or staying part of the UK then the latter will be the overwhelming result. All that is happening now is that Spain want to further stir the Brexit pot. There is no evidence that the Falklands or Channel Islands want to leave the UK either and it seems the majority of Scots don't want to. This is just the desperate clutching at straws and being sensationalist for no valid reason other than being annoyed about the referendum outcome.

[I1L2T3 10]

If Gibraltar had a choice of staying in the EU or staying part of the UK then the latter will be the overwhelming result. All that is happening now is that Spain want to further stir the Brexit pot. There is no evidence that the Falklands or Channel Islands want to leave the UK either and it seems the majority of Scots don't want to. This is just the desperate clutching at straws and being sensationalist for no valid reason other than being annoyed about the referendum outcome.

 

No, Michael Howard has actually said that May would go to war over Gibraltar.

 

In the past 24 hours the Spanish have effectively given the green light to an independent Scotland joining the EU.

 

Exactly how is any of this clutching at straws? Both are significant and worrying developments.

[apelike 10]

No, Michael Howard has actually said that May would go to war over Gibraltar.

 

No, he has suggested that this government would stand by Gibraltar and not that we would go to war, and then compared it to the Falklands. Not forgetting the the Falklands war started because of an invasion, and I doubt that Spain would be daft enough to do that. Mind you with a very high unemployment rate in that region they could draft in the unemployed I suppose.

 

In the past 24 hours the Spanish have effectively given the green light to an independent Scotland joining the EU.

 

Spain confirmed that it would not initially block an independent Scotland's attempts to join the EU. They (Spain) are only one out of 27 members and the fact that Scotland will also need to gain independence first makes a big difference.

 

Exactly how is any of this clutching at straws? Both are significant and worrying developments.

 

See above, and that's the reason why I say its being sensationalist. Good sound bites and spin for the media though.

[Hairyloon 10]

The relevant point is that the relevant people have entirely failed to consider these things at the proper time.

[apelike 10]

The relevant point is that the relevant people have entirely failed to consider these things at the proper time.

 

The trouble is its not possible to second guess what might happen in all situations, especially so when a country like Spain just want to stir the Brexit pot. Gibraltar overwhelmingly voted remain and despite it going the other way they still wish to remain part of the UK, and that is a problem for Spain. 10,000 or so Spanish EU nationals cross the border each day to work in Gibraltar and as they get paid in pounds their wages have declined in real terms.

[I1L2T3 10]

No, he has suggested that this government would stand by Gibraltar and not that we would go to war, and then compared it to the Falklands. Not forgetting the the Falklands war started because of an invasion, and I doubt that Spain would be daft enough to do that. Mind you with a very high unemployment rate in that region they could draft in the unemployed I suppose.

 

 

 

Spain confirmed that it would not initially block an independent Scotland's attempts to join the EU. They (Spain) are only one out of 27 members and the fact that Scotland will also need to gain independence first makes a big difference.

 

 

 

See above, and that's the reason why I say its being sensationalist. Good sound bites and spin for the media though.

 

It's all real now. Things are happening and being said that can't have been predicted even last week. You can't just beat down opposition any more by trying to imply this is some kind of new project fear. That will no longer work.

 

Our government has no control over this, and is going to face a tsunami of problems.

[Jeffrey Shaw 90]

Since there's two years of negotiations just starting, it's certain that nobody (not HMG, not the EU) can tell what the outcome will be. Until that's all done, the only material on which one can comment is the running commentary on who says/demand what. Bear in mind that only public pronouncements are in the public domain; both sides' negotiators will- if well advised- let slip as little as possible.

[Hairyloon 10]

The trouble is its not possible to second guess what might happen in all situations...

No, but Scotland and Ireland were both expressly and explicitly warned about, and trouble with Gibralter was obvious to anyone who had not simply forgotten it was there.

 

Though if you told me that the cabinet couldn't predict getting wet when they go out in the rain then I would easily believe it.

 

---------- Post added 02-04-2017 at 20:09 ----------

 

Both sides' negotiators will- if well advised- let slip as little as possible.

 

The EU have said they intend to be open and transparent in the negotiations. It makes sense: we can see which side is being unreasonable instead of having to rely on the Former Prime Minister lying about it...

[I1L2T3 10]

Since there's two years of negotiations just starting, it's certain that nobody (not HMG, not the EU) can tell what the outcome will be. Until that's all done, the only material on which one can comment is the running commentary on who says/demand what. Bear in mind that only public pronouncements are in the public domain; both sides' negotiators will- if well advised- let slip as little as possible.

 

That is not true. The EU side have stated that they will deliver as much info into the public domain as they can. If May is facing some diffcult issue in the negotiations then why not brief the media? It turns the screw even more, and creates a tsunami of problems. The Gibraltar, Ireland and Scotlan issues on their own as enough. The EU will pile on more and more every passing week.

[Jeffrey Shaw 90]

The EU will pile on more and more every passing week.

Yes, of course, if it's in the EU's own interests so to do. But that's not the best way to achieve one's aims.

[tinfoilhat 11]

Yes, of course, if it's in the EU's own interests so to do. But that's not the best way to achieve one's aims.

 

So the EU are stupid?