The Consequences of Brexit (part 3)

[unbeliever 10]

Edit: be "we" I meant Germany, as no longer do we have the same "we"

 

---------- Post added 21-03-2017 at 13:31 ----------

 

 

The UK and Germany are not part of the same energy and food market - one of the main points about a market is that it uses the same units of exchange across it.....

 

 

Well that's potentially a much bigger discussion.

What's all this talk of the UK's membership of the "single market" in that case?

[Obelix 11]

Are you happy that Brexit has caused inflation then before we leave it

to discuss the single market?

[unbeliever 10]

Are you happy that Brexit has caused inflation then before we leave it

to discuss the single market?

 

I expect that Brexit will cause some inflation. I'm not happy about that, but I consider it a necessary evil. I'm still unconvinced that the current inflation figures show a significant Brexit effect for the reasons I've given. I'm content to agree to disagree on that as I don't see how we can resolve it.

[L00b 441]

Well that's potentially a much bigger discussion.

What's all this talk of the UK's membership of the "single market" in that case?

What talk of what single market membership?

 

The UK shan't have any membership, I thought the Leavers were all agreed on that one?

 

The UK will be hoping for preferential access (as in, better access than North Korea, something like 'WTO plus' perhaps like Canada or South Korea if the UK plays nice).

[unbeliever 10]

What talk of what single market membership?

 

The UK shan't have any membership, I thought the Leavers were all agreed on that one?

 

The UK will be hoping for preferential access (as in, better access than North Korea, something like 'WTO plus' perhaps like Canada or South Korea).

 

Did you read the discussion leading up to that.

It was a response to Obelix's assertion that we are not, despite being EU members, part of the same energy and food market as Germany.

The post is still there if you want to check.

[L00b 441]

Did you read the discussion leading up to that.

It was a response to Obelix's assertion that we are not, despite being EU members, part of the same energy and food market as Germany.

The post is still there if you want to check.

Ah, right, you were conflating wrongly and I missed it, sorry.

 

The single market is a harmonised trading jurisdiction.

 

That doesn't mean everything traded within that market shares the same suppliers, supply chains, demand levels, <etc.> but simply that everyone follows the same rules.

 

Example: the French electricity which the UK buys and the Germans is the same, the trading ratios and currencies involved are different. So if the UK pays EDF in €s rather than £s, the UK now pays 20% extra, since the £ has lost 20% to the €. The UK also pays the Saudis 20% extra for its oil relative to the €zone, for the same reason (because the £ has lost 20% to the $, when the € hasn't). Same with the beef which the UK buys from the Irish, but completely different from the beef which Luxembourg buys from France <etc.>

Edited March 21, 2017 by L00b

[unbeliever 10]

Ah, right, you were conflating wrongly and I missed it, sorry.

 

The single market is a harmonised trading jurisdiction.

 

That doesn't mean everything traded within that market shares the same suppliers, supply chains, demand levels, <etc.> but simply that everyone follows the same rules.

 

Example: the French electricity which the UK buys and the Germans is the same, the trading ratios and currencies involved are different. So if the UK pays EDF in €s rather than £s, the UK now pays 20% extra, since the £ has lost 20% to the €.

 

 

So the "single market", and "EU internal market" are both misnomers then.

[apelike 10]

Fuel duty has been frozen for 7 years. #Justsayin'

 

Fuel duty may have been frozen for the past 7 years but that still means more money coming in in taxes because of increased costs. Then there is also VAT on top which has also has not changed either which will also bring in more money. #Justsayin'

 

So Hammond might get some extra tax, but I don't know about 'a lot'...and anyway, guess who pays it, in the end?

 

But that is the same when prices rise regardless of whether it is Brexit lead, now companies have a good excuse to blame price rises on it while making even greater profits.

 

Food might be zero-rated...but has to be transported just the same. And so costs more when fuel goes up. Go back above re. who ends up paying it. #Justsayin' again

 

Did prices suddenly drop inline with the oil price drop, no. #Justsayin'

 

All that said, nothing wrong with optimism: you're going to need a healthy dose of it in the coming months, so more power to you

 

Na, I'm always optimistic unlike the pessimistic remainers who want to blame everything they don't like on Brexit including rising inflation.

 

But here is a graph and some info on how inflation is now calculated and you will also see that in 2012 it was at around 5.2%. Notice how the media will not report back that far and only report that "UK inflation at highest level since September 2013."

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39328173

Edited March 21, 2017 by apelike

[L00b 441]

So the "single market", and "EU internal market" are both misnomers then.

Are you playing thicko on purpose, here?

 

Have a read about the single market.

Over the past year, the terms on which Britain will leave have been talked down on such a fine gradient that even vigilant observers of politics are only semi-conscious of how far the country has been led.

 

As an opening pitch, voters were told that Britain could retain single market membership without its corollary burdens.

…

When Leavers were disabused of this dream, they spoke of “access” to the market and zero barriers for traded goods.

…

When even this diminished plan ran into trouble, when it became clear that Britain’s desire for bilateral dealmaking power could not be accommodated inside the customs union, Leavers fell back on a formal trade relationship with the EU instead.

…

But now ministers are trying to normalise the idea of total exit without a trade pact. Johnson says this would not be “by any means as apocalyptic as some people like to pretend” (roll up, roll up for a future that stops short of apocalypse) and Davis describes it as “not harmful”. Economists disagree with him but politicians are allowed to question their record of clairvoyance.

You're not getting a deal. And the EU knows it: this is reportedly on the wall of the EU Brexit teams tearoom.

Fuel duty may have been frozen for the past 7 years but <...>

But <...>

But <...>

Brexit cannot have any adverse consequences. We get it. Happy spending Edited March 21, 2017 by L00b

[apelike 10]

Brexit cannot have any adverse consequences. We get it. Happy spending

 

I didn't say Brexit had no adverse consequences but as others here have already pointed out before, some of the consequences were obvious from the start.

[L00b 441]

I didn't say Brexit had no adverse consequences but as others here have already pointed out before, some of the consequences were obvious from the start.

And yet, you turn very defensive and play them down for all you can, when they are simply pointed out. Must the optimism in you, yeah?

[apelike 10]

And yet, you turn very defensive and play them down for all you can, when they are simply pointed out. Must the optimism in you, yeah?

 

Na, I also read stuff like this:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39339834

 

Quote: "It would be ridiculous to say that Brexit is not affecting the UK's course on inflation.

 

But it is not the whole story. To tell that, you need plenty of hands."