The Consequences of Brexit (part 3)

[Hairyloon 10]

And whilst your point is reasonable, this is explicitly not what the economists predicted.

 

Are these the predictions of what would happen in the event that what was promised was delivered? i.e. that which did not happen.

[chalga 10]

Do you have a reference for this?

 

I'm sure that the government is preparing for the worst. That's their job. But you're still talking about predictions. The reality so far is that UK growth is pretty much where it was predicted to be in the event of a remain vote.

 

It's Hammonds budget statement.

Are you saying that his forecast is wrong and he is incompetent,or that you know better?

[Obelix 11]

And whilst your point is reasonable, this is explicitly not what the economists predicted.

 

You just decried the economists as people not to be trusted and now you use them as an appeal to authority?

 

Priceless. Couldn't make this up.

[Hairyloon 10]

"Only imbeciles never change their mind".

 

I think Einstein said that. Or something along those lines

 

Anna Rascouët-Paz, whoever that is. "Take wisdom where you find it."

 

---------- Post added 04-04-2017 at 11:21 ----------

 

It's Hammonds budget statement.

Are you saying that his forecast is wrong and he is incompetent,or that you know better?

 

I am not aware of any known demonstration of his competence.

[Justin Smith 10]

I expect so. I have a pretty good record for admitting it when I find out I'm wrong.

How about you?

 

Oh yes, I`m sure you know I`ve offered to apologise should the UK get what was promised (or at least heavily implied) by the Leave campaign during the referendum. In fact if we get the (more or less) free trade deal and the NHS gets it`s £350 million a week I`ll even respect the result of the referendum. I`ll still not think leaving the EU was the right thing to do, but at least I`d not be so angry about it in that I don`t believe that a majority would have voted to Leave had they not believed the above two promises was what they`d get.

[unbeliever 10]

You just decried the economists as people not to be trusted and now you use them as an appeal to authority?

 

Priceless. Couldn't make this up.

 

 

The remain case was based on an appeal to authority. It's quite proper for their opponents to point out that said appeal is gone, or invalidated. Pointing out that an appeal to authority has failed is not itself an appeal to authority.

[Obelix 11]

So you want to defend an appeal to authority with a strawman?

 

Keep digging. Thats the spirit.

[Justin Smith 10]

Uk inflation is currently just over 2%.

 

And whilst your point is reasonable, this is explicitly not what the economists predicted.

 

As I`ve said before I cannot understand this at all. Going by the price increases of all of my suppliers (the latest one I`ve been informed today is 8%) and the fact I`ve had to have two price rises in the last 8 months, I`m not sure I even believe the official inflation rates any more.

[unbeliever 10]

Most UK trade is still internal.

[chalga 10]

Sssssh everything is fine honest. St Farage reckons so and the 350 million and the economy is going to come bound back like manna and honey.

 

You see, Brexiters believe that stuff but when it's the other way - like Hammond says - then they are experts and economics guys Who Are Not To Be Trusted!

 

Here's some more economic guys saying stuff:

 

http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2016/11/23/brexit-immigration-cut-will-cost-uk-billions-every-year

 

Reduced immigration caused by the vote to leave the EU will cost the UK billions of pounds a year, the government's official spending watchdog said today.

 

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said the government would need to borrow an extra £16 billion by 2020/21 to make up for reduced tax intake caused by falling migration.

 

The estimate is based both on a tighter migration regime post-Brexit, as well as a reduction in the "pull factors" attracting migrants to the UK.

 

Once Britain has left the EU (expected by 2020) the OBR estimate the UK will need to borrow an additional £6 billion a year to make up for the decline in immigration.

Edited April 4, 2017 by chalga

[unbeliever 10]

Yes. They love telling us what might be going to happen.

Less fond of telling us what actually has happened. Usually because they failed to predict it.

I spend half my time on this thread pointing out the difference. Once more:

 

A prediction is not a fact.

 

When I refer to positive Brexit predictions I am making the point that the experts and their useless predictions are no longer uniformly on the Brexit is a disaster bandwagon. This is necessary because the remain side don't all understand this yet.

I am not reversing myself on the position that economists' predictions are crap.

[Jacktari 10]

A prediction is not a fact.

 

.

 

I predict more people would rather holiday in Spain than Blackpool.