The end of the EU?

[andyofborg 11]

There will also soon be another fracture in the EU. At some point the negotiators who are telling the UK we can't have free access to the single market will be having to explain to millions of their citizens why they are losing their jobs because they no longer have free access to sell in the UK.

 

at the end of the day we will have some sort of access to the single market, however. if we want the sort of access to the single market we have now then all we have to do is accept all four of the four freedoms, the jurisdiction of the eu court of justice and make a contribution to the eu budget.

 

---------- Post added 07-12-2016 at 20:54 ----------

 

And the German motor vehicle industry, will be at the front of the queue lobbying, for continued tarrif free access to the UK market, which just happens to be their biggest export market by volumne.

 

people buy german cars because they like them and i suspect that most will continue to buy them so unless you are advocating cutting all link with the eu then they wont lose much of their market.

 

They would, no doubt, be sad if they lost a significant market but German manufacturers are quite committed to the EU, so i doubt they would lobby for a deal at any cost.

 

we should also consider that the over the last 40 years, multi country supply chains have been put together, particularly in the motor industry and a lot of them involve uk companies, who will be stuffed if we get a bad deal on exit from the EU

Edited December 7, 2016 by andyofborg

[Gamston 10]

people buy german cars because they like them and i suspect that most will continue to buy them so unless you are advocating cutting all link with the eu then they wont lose much of their market.

 

They would, no doubt, be sad if they lost a significant market but German manufacturers are quite committed to the EU, so i doubt they would lobby for a deal at any cost.

 

we should also consider that the over the last 40 years, multi country supply chains have been put together, particularly in the motor industry and a lot of them involve uk companies, who will be stuffed if we get a bad deal on exit from the EU

You clearly don't think lke a businessman and are ignoring the fact that the UK is the German Motor industries biggest export market by volume and only behind America in revenue. The German Motor Industry, will suffer more than any other country, if tariff free motor vehicle trading is not continued between the UK and EU. The global export market for motor vehicles is second to only crude oil in global value. Germany are the World's largest exporter of Motor vehicles.

 

You are correct, there will be many sad Germans, if they can't negotiate continued tariff free access to the lucrative UK market.

[hauxwell 243]

You clearly don't think lke a businessman and are ignoring the fact that the UK is the German Motor industries biggest export market by volume and only behind America in revenue. The German Motor Industry, will suffer more than any other country, if tariff free motor vehicle trading is not continued between the UK and EU. The global export market for motor vehicles is second to only crude oil in global value. Germany are the World's largest exporter of Motor vehicles.

 

You are correct, there will be many sad Germans, if they can't negotiate continued tariff free access to the lucrative UK market.

 

That is what Dave Davis said when I went to see him at the Sage in Gateshead, he was given a talk alongside Farage and a few Labour MP's who also supported the leave campaign, a week before the EU leave vote.

Davis said take a look at how many German cars there are on our roads. If Merkel was to put tariffs on German Cars being exported to the UK she would have a lot of people from the German Car Industry banging on her door. I do hope Davis is right.

[I1L2T3 10]

That is what Dave Davis said when I went to see him at the Sage in Gateshead, he was given a talk alongside Farage and a few Labour MP's who also supported the leave campaign, a week before the EU leave vote.

Davis said take a look at how many German cars there are on our roads. If Merkel was to put tariffs on German Cars being exported to the UK she would have a lot of people from the German Car Industry banging on her door. I do hope Davis is right.

 

He won't be right. The Germans will still have a market for their vehicles. All of them practically are mid range or high end and the people making discretionary decisions to purchase them can most likely afford a hit, especially given that purchase costs are usually spread over years and there is more use of leasing now. The financing model will just evolve to cushion extra costs for consumers.

[L00b 441]

On the topic of tariffs, do please read this.

 

Whether Leavers realise how cute a pup they've been sold or not is irrelevant, as this is a factual post: the UK's WTO schedules post-Brexit will mirror the current configuration reflecting its EU membership.

[999tigger 10]

There will also soon be another fracture in the EU. At some point the negotiators who are telling the UK we can't have free access to the single market will be having to explain to millions of their citizens why they are losing their jobs because they no longer have free access to sell in the UK.

 

1. Why should they give free access? Thats the benefit of membership. Bit pointless giving non members the same rights, but none of the responsibilities of being a member. They especially cnat do this as countries such as Switzerland and Norway already have deals in place. They accept free movement and pay money.

 

2. At the moment the stance is no free access without freedom of movement for people. Its more important to the EU that it stands by this principle because otherwise it would undermine itself. They wamt something in exchange for free access.

 

3. If you wnat to think millions will lose their jobs in the EU, then that applies to the UK as well. Both sides will lose. We are a market of 60m, they are one of 440m.

[Gamston 10]

1. Why should they give free access? Thats the benefit of membership. Bit pointless giving non members the same rights, but none of the responsibilities of being a member. They especially cnat do this as countries such as Switzerland and Norway already have deals in place. They accept free movement and pay money.

 

2. At the moment the stance is no free access without freedom of movement for people. Its more important to the EU that it stands by this principle because otherwise it would undermine itself. They wamt something in exchange for free access.

 

3. If you wnat to think millions will lose their jobs in the EU, then that applies to the UK as well. Both sides will lose. We are a market of 60m, they are one of 440m.

By comparing Switzerland and Norway, then you arn't comparing like for like, because the UK is the World's fifth largest economy. In exchange for UK continued access, then the EU can be granted continued free access to the lucrative UK market, which imports more from the EU than it exports to the EU.

 

At the end of the day common sense will prevail and the UK and EU will agree on a least a 99% tariff free trade agreement and both the UK and EU will be able to claim victory.

[unbeliever 10]

On the topic of tariffs, do please read this.

 

Whether Leavers realise how cute a pup they've been sold or not is irrelevant, as this is a factual post: the UK's WTO schedules post-Brexit will mirror the current configuration reflecting its EU membership.

 

What's the problem? It's all to achieve a smooth transition. The same reason we're planning on transposing all the EU law on the books into UK law. These things will be changed later as and when we see ways of doing better.

[999tigger 10]

That is what Dave Davis said when I went to see him at the Sage in Gateshead, he was given a talk alongside Farage and a few Labour MP's who also supported the leave campaign, a week before the EU leave vote.

Davis said take a look at how many German cars there are on our roads. If Merkel was to put tariffs on German Cars being exported to the UK she would have a lot of people from the German Car Industry banging on her door. I do hope Davis is right.

 

Except it doesnt work that way and as important as German cars are they realise that undermining the EU itself by giving access to the single market ib a more favourable way than existing members will not work at all.

 

Merkel wouldnt put tariffs on cars being exported to the UK, do you understand what they are?

 

---------- Post added 08-12-2016 at 18:01 ----------

 

By comparing Switzerland and Norway, then you arn't comparing like for like, because the UK is the World's fifth largest economy. In exchange for UK continued access, then the EU can be granted continued free access to the lucrative UK market, which imports more from the EU than it exports to the EU.

 

At the end of the day common sense will prevail and the UK and EU will agree on a least a 99% tariff free trade agreement and both the UK and EU will be able to claim victory.

 

You seem to forget they have to get unanimous agreement and there are many countries that dont care what happens to the UK. By granting free access without payment automatically undermines the deal with Norway and Switzerland plus all the other net contributing member states. The EU market is more importnat and profitavle to the EU than the UK market.

[Gamston 10]

 

You seem to forget they have to get unanimous agreement and there are many countries that dont care what happens to the UK. By granting free access without payment automatically undermines the deal with Norway and Switzerland plus all the other net contributing member states. The EU market is more importnat and profitavle to the EU than the UK market.

You fail to take on board the fact, that Germany are the powerhouse of the remaining EU nations and wll put pressure on the Mickey Mouse EU nations, to come around to agreeing, what is in the best interest of Germany. It is in the best interest of Germany, to continue to have tariff free access to the lucrative UK market and the other EU nations will quickly obey German orders, when they are told to do so, behind closed doors.

[999tigger 10]

You fail to take on board the fact, that Germany are the powerhouse of the remaining EU nations and wll put pressure on the Mickey Mouse EU nations, to come around to agreeing, what is in the best interest of Germany. It is in the best interest of Germany, to continue to have tariff free access to the lucrative UK market and the other EU nations will quickly obey German orders, when they are told to do so, behind closed doors.

 

It takes a unanimous vote. They can exert some pressure, but you fail to understand (I dont believe you ever understand half the issues) that by giving tariff free access without expecting anything in return undermines the EU itself, which is rather more important to Germany than the car industry. They can still export at higher costs so will be less profitable, but financial services will be prevented from operating in the EU unless they are duly authorised, which means business will move there. You might not give a oss about financial services, but they are rather important to the UK. If the Uk wnats access then it should pay money for the privilege, just like Norway and Switzerland. I dont see the UK getting a better deal having left than it had before, that would make no sense.

[tzijlstra 11]

You fail to take on board the fact, that Germany are the powerhouse of the remaining EU nations and wll put pressure on the Mickey Mouse EU nations, to come around to agreeing, what is in the best interest of Germany. It is in the best interest of Germany, to continue to have tariff free access to the lucrative UK market and the other EU nations will quickly obey German orders, when they are told to do so, behind closed doors.

 

You are forgetting, as usual, how the EU works. In fact, you haven't got a clue how it works as you refer to 'Mickey Mouse EU nations'. Delusions of grandeur was the title of a recent article in the Dutch Financial Daily describing the predicament the Brits find themselves in. They were right.

 

Gentle reminder - Tata steel, without government support or Unions offering big incentives (including reducing workers' status), is profitable in the Netherlands. Odd that, isn't it?