How far will the rise of nationalistic populism go ?

[Bob Arctor 11]

Thank Gawd for the Dutch, they`ve stopped Nationalistic Populism in its tracks.

 

While it is a relief that the PVV didn't win, the fact that a party so right wing has that many seats is no cause for celebration. There is still a lot of work to do.

[Guest sibon]

 

Now for the semi final in France in May, and the final in Germany later this year

 

There is a possibility of a third/fourth place play off in Italy too.

[L00b 441]

There is a possibility of a third/fourth place play off in Italy too.

A fair comment, but I can't see them turning anti-EU en masse. The Northern League has been at it years and years longer than Wilders, and has nowhere near the voting support and political 'legitimacy' still. Figuratively, with the broad Italian electorate, they're in the same "barely if ever tolerable zone" as Marine's Front National v2.0 is with the broad French electorate (one step up from the BNP/EDL here, give or take).

 

I'd expect the Greeks to exit long before enough Italians ever get near the idea. Too much of an Italian diaspora, and the associated links into/out of Italy, right across the EU as well.

 

France or Germany exiting the EU, then yes I can see the whole edifice seriously in trouble. But neither a Dutch exit nor an Italian exit would imperil it.

[Guest]

Because someone has paraphrased JFK and Alan has read it and copied it here. Is my guess.

 

But I'm not sure he understands what it means.

 

I was paraphrasing Homer Simpson actually.

[Bob Arctor 11]

I was paraphrasing Homer Simpson actually.

 

Someone paraphrases JFK (Cuban missile crisis, October 1962); world on the brink of nuclear war and facing the extinction of the species, and thinks they're paraphrasing Homer Simpson. Dear God, what have we become?

 

And anyway it was Marge.

[Justin Smith 10]

I understand that 'immediate' context, Tim...but Wilders has climbed from his 15 seats in 2012, we're not looking at e.g. UKIP's dead-cat-bouncing-at-the-GE-with-no-MP (the sole part-timer-depending-on-party-ratings exception doesn't count )

 

Still, bygones. Your compatriots have won the 1/4 final with flying (orange) colours, big yay!

 

Now for the semi final in France in May, and the final in Germany later this year

 

The French electoral system will, by preventing splits in the anti fascist vote, almost certainly prevent Le Pen from getting any where near the Presidency, thank God.

[Guest]

I lost the bet, but I am glad that Wilders lost. Now, I am sure Le Pen stand no chance in second round of french elections.

Hope this is new trend in the west and it will reflect on eastern europe countries where some of the nasty individuals are come to power.

[unbeliever 10]

I lost the bet, but I am glad that Wilders lost. Now, I am sure Le Pen stand no chance in second round of french elections.

Hope this is new trend in the west and it will reflect on eastern europe countries where some of the nasty individuals are come to power.

 

They don't have to win. In campaigning they move the debate. In being a threat to mainstream leaders they cause policy changes.

[Justin Smith 10]

They don't have to win. In campaigning they move the debate. In being a threat to mainstream leaders they cause policy changes.

 

The EU referendum being the most significant example. UKIP never had any chance of coming to power, but they moved the debate, and politicians were looking at any votes they could snag.

[unbeliever 10]

The EU referendum being the most significant example. UKIP never had any chance of coming to power, but they moved the debate, and politicians were looking at any votes they could snag.

 

UKIP seem different to me. If you look at the Dutch, French, Austrian front men/women they're more Griffin than Farage.

To be fair to UKIP they're not explicitly anti-immigration but anti free movement. There is a difference even if many reasonable people are happy with both.

 

I haven't seen any similar parties emerge on the continent.

[Guest]

The EU referendum being the most significant example. UKIP never had any chance of coming to power, but they moved the debate, and politicians were looking at any votes they could snag.

 

Is there the potential of UKIP being in the position the Libdems were in in the 2010 general election?

[Justin Smith 10]

Is there the potential of UKIP being in the position the Libdems were in in the 2010 general election?

 

Do you mean was there (at the 2015 General Election) ? I don`t think UKIP would have got any more seats than they did, and if they did it`d literally be a handful. Under those circumstances I`d have thought Cameron would have much preferred getting into bed with the Lib Dems than UKIP.