The Consequences of Brexit (part 2)

[Hairyloon 10]

As I've often said, the EU will give the UK the best deal the EU can, influenced as it will be by its own economic and political factors.

 

Maybe so, but the best deal they can give has to be worse than the deal we have got, otherwise why would any other country remain a member?

[L00b 441]

Maybe so, but the best deal they can give has to be worse than the deal we have got,

That goes without saying: no deal can ever be as good as what we currently have got, at the very least over the medium term whilst the UK economy "transitions" to its new socio-economic reality.

 

The (on balance-) 'better' longer-term, is the gamble which the Leavers and the 52% are taking.

otherwise why would any other country remain a member?

That one is more complex though, particularly once you consider the structural investment requirements for new acceding member states for getting onto the socio-economic level with the rest of the EU: very much a case of beggers can't be choosers for them, whilst the UK arguably isn't in the same begging league, by very far.

 

This point dovetails into the EU's "own economic and political factors" to which I alluded in post #4169 above. It won't be a case of the EU out to 'punish' the UK 'for leaving', it will be a case of the EU managing the remaining 27's perceptions and expectations

Edited March 10, 2017 by L00b

[Obelix 11]

Don't bite the hype, that story has more holes in it than a good Gruyère.

 

French workers not striking when someone, anyone cast out in defiance of labour laws?

 

Its a Gruyère full of deeply smelly stuff - but not cheese.... fish....

[L00b 441]

French workers not striking when someone, anyone cast out in defiance of labour laws?

Except, he wasn't. He'd left his (seasonal) job to go do a fork driving course. There was no job offered when he came back. It's in the 'article'.

 

My Mum has 40 years of service, from the bottom to very near the top, in the French Caisses d'Allocations Familiales (the French Social Security branch tasked with family welfare, benefits, emergency accommodation, <etc.>) so I have a bit of familiarity with the 'system' over there still. The parts of the article about suspended benefits, no accommodation, etc. (in France) make no sense whatsoever.

 

Still, it gets Leavers foaming at the mouth and so sells papers, I suppose...

Edited March 10, 2017 by L00b

[Hairyloon 10]

That goes without saying...

 

No, it needs saying again and again: some people are blinkered to it.

[NigelFargate 10]

I'll declare the other way. If we end up in a better economic position compared to the remaining EU after 5 years (assuming the Lisbon treaty take 2 years and article 50 is triggered sometime in 2017, giving at least 2 years outside of the EU for comparision) then I will admit I was wrong about Brexit. Feel free to suggest fair economic measures we can use for the comparison, I suppose just GDP growth and inflation might not be sufficient.

 

i think it more likely than not that the UK's economic performance will be superior to that of the EU after 5 years. I don't have to indulge in sophisticated economic forecasting in order to predict this. I base my opinion on the factors which have restricted economic growth in the EU in recent years, namely the straitjacket of EMU, over-regulation within the SEM, the anachronism of the 'European social model' and the poor competitiveness of many EU member states.

[biotechpete 10]

i think it more likely than not that the UK's economic performance will be superior to that of the EU after 5 years. I don't have to indulge in sophisticated economic forecasting in order to predict this. I base my opinion on the factors which have restricted economic growth in the EU in recent years, namely the straitjacket of EMU, over-regulation within the SEM, the anachronism of the 'European social model' and the poor competitiveness of many EU member states.

 

Have you seen the productivity comparisons between us and the main EU states?

 

We have about a 30% gap to France and Germany and 10% to Italy. It is the UK that is holding the UK back, not the EU!

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/feb/18/uk-productivity-gap-widens-to-worst-level-since-records-began

[monkey104 10]

How so ? I just want them to be consistent. UB is making a fist of it, or going as far as he can, it`ll be interesting to see what the other say, if anything.

 

I believe UB seems to be making a better fist of it in comparison to your ravings.

 

---------- Post added 10-03-2017 at 12:28 ----------

 

Careful UB, that makes you sound like a Daily Mail / Daily Express reader.....

 

---------- Post added 10-03-2017 at 10:18 ----------

 

 

 

Failing that, resort to abuse.

Edited March 10, 2017 by monkey104

[Justin Smith 10]

i think it more likely than not that the UK's economic performance will be superior to that of the EU after 5 years. I don't have to indulge in sophisticated economic forecasting in order to predict this. I base my opinion on the factors which have restricted economic growth in the EU in recent years, namely the straitjacket of EMU, over-regulation within the SEM, the anachronism of the 'European social model' and the poor competitiveness of many EU member states.

 

Nigel old son, good to see you on, don`t forget to answer this question :

 

The two biggest lies, or at least gross distortions of the Leave referendum campaign were the NHS`s £350 million a week, and the often quoted reply to "won`t our European trade suffer if we leave the EU". Their frequently repeated line was, more or less :

 

"They sell more to us than we sell to them so we`ll get a good deal (implying as good) as we`ve got now, that`s just common sense"

 

They kept at this line, in fact still are peddling it, despite everyone else saying that wouldn`t happen.

Now, why I`ve brought this up now is it`s all about to kick off, and what I, and most other Europhiles, do not want to happen is for the Brexiteers to come up with something like this :

 

"The EU not giving us a good deal is illogical so we could not have foreseen it"

 

We can`t control what Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage says, but I think we`d like the Sheffield Forum Brexiteers to at least promise they won`t come up with some similar, totally bogus, line.

So come on Unbeliever, Nigel Fargate, Apelike, Gamston et al, are you prepared to make such an undertaking ?

 

---------- Post added 10-03-2017 at 13:20 ----------

 

Justin Smith wrote :

Careful UB, that makes you sound like a Daily Mail / Daily Express reader.....

 

Failing that, resort to abuse.

 

Sorry are you saying that calling someone a Daily Mail reader is abuse ?

I would half agree with you as it happens, it`s just I`m a bit surprised you think that as well.

I`m sure UB took the comment in the light hearted manner it was intended, didn`t you UB ?

Edited March 10, 2017 by Justin Smith

[unbeliever 10]

I`m sure UB took the comment in the light hearted manner it was intended, didn`t you UB ?

 

Sure. Why not. I've been known to have ago at DM readers myself.

Just don't get me started on Guardian readers (for quite different reasons).

[Obelix 11]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39228245

 

Looks like someones finally talking about the 16 odd million who are not being represented at all. What a shame it has to be a Belgian rather than a Briton.

 

The comments section is frightening - a large number of people want to actively remove citizenship from people against their will. There will be violence before this is done.

[L00b 441]

Looks like someones finally talking about the 16 odd million who are not being represented at all. What a shame it has to be a Belgian rather than a Briton.

Downing St. did comment:

Asked whether the UK would welcome the opportunity for British nationals to retain some of the benefits of EU citizenship after Brexit, No 10 said it was "not something that we have ever proposed or said that we are looking at".

Selling the 16m down the river just like the emigrated community.

 

Downing St. also said:

Prime Minister Theresa May has indicated that the UK Parliament will vote on the terms of exit before the European Parliament but that the UK will leave the EU anyway, irrespective of whether MPs approve or reject them.

I stand by my post #4169 all the more for that confirmation of timing.

 

You're not getting any deal