The Consequences of Brexit (part 2)

[unbeliever 10]

Why are you even quoting a Daily Express story ?

 

Well quite.

One might as well quote a Trump tweet.

[Justin Smith 10]

This is a bit all over the place, but I think I get the gist.

No I can't guarantee that the EU will give us a good deal. I'm confident, but no promises. They'd be stupid not to for all the reasons you allude to but if the EU was well run I doubt we'd have left.

What I am confident of is that the UK will do well either way.

 

Critically, that`s not what Boris Johnson et al said in the campaign......

 

Oh, and I think they (the EU) would be stupid to give us a good deal. The logical starting point for their negotiating strategy should be it will be worse than we had as a member, significantly so.

 

Anyway, that`s UB answered, probably as expected, we`re just waiting for Nigel Fargate, Apelike and Gamston, plus any others prepared to put their heads above the parapet.

[L00b 441]

We can`t control what Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage says, but I think we`d like the Sheffield Forum Brexiteers to at least promise they won`t come up with some similar, totally bogus, line.

Whether intentional or not, that's a veiled attempt at shutting off debate

 

Lend (most-) readers and posters on here some intelligence, Justin. I'm confident they'll see the bad faith in such obfuscating attempts just fine

Oh, and I think they (the EU) would be stupid to give us a good deal. The logical starting point for their negotiating strategy should be it will be worse than we had as a member, significantly so.

As I've often said, the EU will give the UK the best deal the EU can, influenced as it will be by its own economic and political factors.

 

Which may end up being a long way away from the best deal which the UK is after, and which will definitely be a long way away from the deal which Leavers like Boris and Fox have presented as a certitude.

 

There won't be any cake having and eating, of that I'm absolutely sure.

 

It's a negotiation at arms' length: both parties start as high as they can 'on paper' (i.e. with a borderline-justifiable basis, just shy of outright indecency), and in the end they'll meet somewhere in the middle...or not at all.

 

May & her 3 Brexiteers, and the Leave campaign before them, have presented the best-case outcome for the UK, i.e. the UK's opening negotiating position, as the deal which the UK will definitely get. And they still are. According to May so far, the alternative would constitute a "bad deal", which the UK will refuse.

 

For now, my money is on a "no deal" aim by the Leavers: they will use the EU Parliament to help their aim, since the EU Parliament has to ratify the deal (just like our own Parliament would have to, if the relevant amendment gets into the Article 50 Bill): the UK will stall and obfuscate for all it can for 2 years, the draft deal by 2 years will still be too good for the UK, the government will ram it past the UK Parliament which will of course approve it by reason of same, the EU Parliament will of course reject it by reason of same, 2 year is up, UK out of the EU with no deal, the EU will be blamed for not letting the UK having its cake and eating it.

 

You just watch

Edited March 10, 2017 by L00b

[unbeliever 10]

Oh, and I think they (the EU) would be stupid to give us a good deal. The logical starting point for their negotiating strategy should be it will be worse than we had as a member.

 

Well as long as they can make a case to their own constituency with a straight face that they've done that, that's all that is required.

[Justin Smith 10]

The two biggest lies, or at least gross distortions of the Leave referendum campaign were the NHS`s £350 million a week, and the often quoted reply to "won`t our European trade suffer if we leave the EU". Their frequently repeated line was, more or less :

 

"They sell more to us than we sell to them so we`ll get a good deal (implying as good) as we`ve got now, that`s just common sense"

 

They kept at this line, in fact still are peddling it, despite everyone else saying that wouldn`t happen.

Now, why I`ve brought this up now is it`s all about to kick off, and what I, and most other Europhiles, do not want to happen is for the Brexiteers to come up with something like this :

 

"The EU not giving us a good deal is illogical so we could not have foreseen it"

 

We can`t control what Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage says, but I think we`d like the Sheffield Forum Brexiteers to at least promise they won`t come up with some similar, totally bogus, line.

So come on Unbeliever, Nigel Fargate, Apelike, Gamston et al, are you prepared to make such an undertaking ?

 

Incidentally, the workers at Toyota Burnaston must be a bit nervous, what with Toyota saying they will delay taking a decision on the new model for that plant. Some would say it serves them right, 57% in Derby voted to leave, though I do wonder what the vote was amongst Burnaston workers..... Still, the Leave campaign said it`d be fine, so they don`t need to worry do they ?

 

Whether intentional or not, that's a veiled attempt at shutting off debate.

 

How so ? I just want them to be consistent. UB is making a fist of it, or going as far as he can, it`ll be interesting to see what the other say, if anything.

Edited March 10, 2017 by Justin Smith

[unbeliever 10]

How so ? I just want them to be consistent. UB is making a fist of it, or going as far as he can to be so.

 

The problem is that it's entirely possible that the EU will, through their own malfeasance, cause a massive recession in the content of Europe. This will affect non-mebers like Norway, Switzerland and the UK as well as the EU itself. Self-harming by deliberately inhibiting trade with the UK may be part of their failure.

You can't expect us not to say so.

Now if in 10 years the EU is doing very well and the UK very badly, you might have a point. But if the EU make a mess and drag us down with them then that's hardly the Brexiters fault.

[Justin Smith 10]

The problem is that it's entirely possible that the EU will, through their own malfeasance, cause a massive recession in the content of Europe. This will affect non-mebers like Norway, Switzerland and the UK as well as the EU itself. Self-harming by deliberately inhibiting trade with the UK may be part of their failure.

You can't expect us not to say so.

Now if in 10 years the EU is doing very well and the UK very badly, you might have a point. But if the EU make a mess and drag us down with them then that's hardly the Brexiters fault.

 

I said this back in September, it`s the oldest quote I could find, but I`m sure I was saying the same thing before that. Anyway, it`s just as true now :

 

I doubt very much that the EU will give the UK free access to the single market without free movement of people or the payment of huge sums of money. At the end of the day if they do that, the whole of the EU project will start to unravel, so they won`t, and why should they ? It`s probably more likely, but by no means certain, that the EU itself could start to introduce certain restrictions on the free movement of people within the EU itself (because of internal pressures, i.e. the right in various EU richer countries). But that would then beg the question, shouldn`t the UK have another referendum because the whole question has changed ? Again we all know what the Brexit campaign will say "we had a referendum, we don`t want a another one (whatever has changed)". Or, to put it another way "we`re not listening"......

 

If the economic meltdown happens as you say, you don`t think Britain leaving the EU would have had anything to do with it ? Because much of it was entirely predictable. None of it was ever spouted by the Leave campaign before the referendum, absolutely none of it. As I`ve said before, arch Brexiteers wouldn`t be worried about it anyway, but we both know more then enough Leave voters would have been for a different result to have occurred. And that, to me, is the reason I`ve lost all respect for British democracy, and have none for the Leave vote.

Edited March 10, 2017 by Justin Smith

[sgtkate 10]

How so ? I just want them to be consistent. UB is making a fist of it, or going as far as he can, it`ll be interesting to see what the other say, if anything.

 

I'll declare the other way. If we end up in a better economic position compared to the remaining EU after 5 years (assuming the Lisbon treaty take 2 years and article 50 is triggered sometime in 2017, giving at least 2 years outside of the EU for comparision) then I will admit I was wrong about Brexit. Feel free to suggest fair economic measures we can use for the comparison, I suppose just GDP growth and inflation might not be sufficient.

[unbeliever 10]

I prefer GDP/capita as a measure to just GDP.

 

---------- Post added 10-03-2017 at 09:42 ----------

 

I said this back in September, it`s the oldest quote I could find, but I`m sure I was saying the same thing before that. Anyway, it`s just as true now :

 

I doubt very much that the EU will give the UK free access to the single market without free movement of people or the payment of huge sums of money. At the end of the day if they do that, the whole of the EU project will start to unravel, so they won`t, and why should they ? It`s probably more likely, but by no means certain, that the EU itself could start to introduce certain restrictions on the free movement of people within the EU itself (because of internal pressures, i.e. the right in various EU richer countries). But that would then beg the question, shouldn`t the UK have another referendum because the whole question has changed ? Again we all know what the Brexit campaign will say "we had a referendum, we don`t want a another one (whatever has changed)". Or, to put it another way "we`re not listening"......

 

If the economic meltdown happens as you say, you don`t think Britain leaving the EU would have had anything to do with it, because much of it was entirely predictable. None of it was ever spouted by the Leave campaign before the referendum, absolutely none of it. As I`ve said before, arch Brexiteers wouldn`t be worried about it anyway, but we both know more then enough Leave voters would have been for a different result to have occurred. And that, to me, is the reason I`ve lost all respect for British democracy

 

 

They don't have to stand up and say "look at this great deal we've given the UK" in order to make a deal that is in everybody's best interests. This is diplomacy and professional politics. Trade deals are complicated.

It's not even challenging to construct a trade agreement which is in everybody's best interests and where they can go back and say "look how tough we've been on the Brits" and have a few key things in the deal to point to to back that up.

 

We have the right to withdraw from the EU. If they want to make a mess of the wider European economy in response, that's their doing and not ours.

EMU needs to be put back into the cereal packet it came in. That's the EU's problem, not Brexit.

They're only upset because they can't afford as many make-work bureaucrats now.

[sgtkate 10]

I prefer GDP/capita as a measure to just GDP.

 

---------- Post added 10-03-2017 at 09:42 ----------

 

 

 

They don't have to stand up and say "look at this great deal we've given the UK" in order to make a deal that is in everybody's best interests. This is diplomacy and professional politics. Trade deals are complicated.

It's not even challenging to construct a trade agreement which is in everybody's best interests and where they can go back and say "look how tough we've been on the Brits" and have a few key things in the deal to point to to back that up.

 

We have the right to withdraw from the EU. If they want to make a mess of the wider European economy in response, that's their doing and not ours.

EMU needs to be put back into the cereal packet it came in. That's the EU's problem, not Brexit.

They're only upset because they can't afford as many make-work bureaucrats now.

 

Accepted. I did really mean that GDP is a fairly useless measure.

[unbeliever 10]

Accepted. I did really mean that GDP is a fairly useless measure.

 

Given the mess around EMU, my own best guess is that the EU will contract in terms of GDP/capita for most of the next 10 years and the UK will do slightly better.

We can argue (and have at great length) what effect Brexit will have on the 2 economies. I think the effect of Brexit will be dwarfed by the effects of EMU.

 

Have a look at the last 10 years:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita-ppp

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-per-capita-ppp

 

Neither is great, but they're still below 2007 levels.

 

UK: $38866

€A: $37737

Edited March 10, 2017 by unbeliever

[Justin Smith 10]

I prefer GDP/capita as a measure to just GDP.

 

---------- Post added 10-03-2017 at 09:42 ----------

 

 

 

They don't have to stand up and say "look at this great deal we've given the UK" in order to make a deal that is in everybody's best interests. This is diplomacy and professional politics. Trade deals are complicated.

It's not even challenging to construct a trade agreement which is in everybody's best interests and where they can go back and say "look how tough we've been on the Brits" and have a few key things in the deal to point to to back that up.

 

We have the right to withdraw from the EU. If they want to make a mess of the wider European economy in response, that's their doing and not ours.

EMU needs to be put back into the cereal packet it came in. That's the EU's problem, not Brexit.

They're only upset because they can't afford as many make-work bureaucrats now.

 

Careful UB, that makes you sound like a Daily Mail / Daily Express reader.....

 

---------- Post added 10-03-2017 at 10:18 ----------

 

I'll declare the other way. If we end up in a better economic position compared to the remaining EU after 5 years (assuming the Lisbon treaty take 2 years and article 50 is triggered sometime in 2017, giving at least 2 years outside of the EU for comparision) then I will admit I was wrong about Brexit. Feel free to suggest fair economic measures we can use for the comparison, I suppose just GDP growth and inflation might not be sufficient.

 

It`s not just about economics, though I feel we`ll be better off in the EU. I don`t think we`ll go way down hill as some Remainers have predicted, I think we`ll be just a bit worse off in the long term, probably more so in the short to medium term*. However, I feel the UK and by definition my family, is safer and more secure in the EU. Even more so now we`ve got an idiot loose cannon in the Whitehouse, and, indeed, the rise of Nationalism generally.

 

* If that perfectly reasonable prediction comes true, I would suggest that, had the voting population known it, Britain would have voted to stay in the EU. Comfortably more than 2% changing sides (or 4% not voting at all) would have given a different result. One has to remember, only a relatively small proportion of Leave voters were hard core types (less than 15% in Apr 2015),

Edited March 10, 2017 by Justin Smith