The Consequences of Brexit (part 2)

[Jacktari 10]

That position is held by a large number of moderate remain voters which is why the government is comfortable pursuing it.

Yes it looks very much like that is what will happen.

 

How can you be a 'moderate' remain voter, or a 'moderate' leave voter?

 

There were no shades of grey involved, it was a black or white question.

[I1L2T3 10]

There's risk certainly. But there's a lot of good will outside the EU in terms of future trading relationships. An outward looking UK is a good thing for the world as a whole who often find trading with EU members rather difficult.

 

The market has judged that Brexit is not going to be substantially negative in the medium-long term. This is what the Brexiters expected and now the remainers' experts are conceding and failing into line. So it's perfectly natural that we're not panicking.

 

I don't think it's judged that at all. Not for one second.

 

Markets are notoriously short-termist, and that is what has kept things ticking over along driven by the signal intent of the BoE to QE us out of this mess if it has to.

 

Add to that the receptiveness of other EU countries to taking in financial services companies and other major companies. I'm on the front line of this in my job (IT but primarily datacentres) and trust me we are very busy. I deal with this every day.

[chalga 10]

Britain will remain under the jurisdiction of the European court of justice for years to come if it seeks a transition deal to cushion its withdrawal from the EU, the chief negotiator for the European parliament has said.

 

In the clearest sign to date that Britain is on a collision course with Brussels over the court, Guy Verhofstadt said European negotiators were primed to push back against Theresa May’s promises to remove the UK from the writ of European judges as soon as Britain leaves the EU in 2019.

 

Verhofstadt, who is representing the parliament in the article 50 negotiations, said he expected a transition agreement to be put together following the settling of Britain’s debts and before withdrawal in 2019.

 

 

 

But asked whether the UK would remain under the European court of justice after 2019, the former Belgian prime minister said: “The starting point from the European side will be yes.”

 

 

 

Downing Street made clear as recently as last month that it believed the UK would leave the jurisdiction of the court as soon as the UK left the EU. May, who was repeatedly frustrated by the court’s rulings during her time as home secretary, sees it as a benchmark for whether the country has truly left the EU.

 

Verhofstadt’s remarks are the latest sign that, under a transition deal that the prime minister wants to be put in place while a free trade agreement is finalised, the EU will not allow Britain to withdraw from the ECJ.

 

Such a scenario would elicit a storm of protest from many of the prime minister’s colleagues in the Conservative party, for whom the ECJ is a particular Brussels bugbear. Many will regard continued observance of ECJ rulings after 2019 as evidence that the prime minister has not kept to her promise that “Brexit means Brexit”.

 

With just weeks to go before May is expected to formally announce Britain’s intention to leave the EU by triggering article 50, Verhofstadt also dashed UK government hopes that it will be able to conduct negotiations in tandem about withdrawal and a future trade agreement with the EU.

He said that the EU institutions were now agreed that the UK would have to settle its withdrawal bill before any progress could be made on the future relationship. He said it would be reasonable to consider “an idea, a principle” on which to base a future relationship, but only to enter into talks on a free trade agreement during the transitional period.

 

 

 

On Britain’s hopes of negotiating a deal at the same time as the divorce, he added: “That is not possible. Technically [it is not possible] in the time we have, 14 or 15 months, let’s be honest.”

 

It is understood that it was agreed during a meeting between the EU’s Brexit negotiators and member states on Monday that the UK will be told to pay €57bn (£49bn) as the price for exiting the EU, although France and Germany wanted as much as €70bn.

 

A senior EU source added that at the meeting, hosted by the European commission Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, member states were also informed that the City of London was likely to be offered a so-called “equivalence” deal, whereby the UK and the EU’s regulations were deemed to be in line.

 

This would allow the City’s financial services to continue to operate across the continent. However, a source told the Guardian that Barnier insisted that the EU would have the power to pull the plug on the deal at any point.

 

Verhofstadt declined to comment on a possible arrangement with the UK regarding the City. But he described the claims from some in the UK and elsewhere that the EU had more to lose from a bad deal for the City than Britain as part of a pre-negotiation “psychological war”.

 

 

He said: “I don’t believe in this catastrophic scenario: without the City of London the whole thing collapses. I think this is completely, well, [much] of what you hear today is the building up of the muscles in the negotiation. Fine, it is good. But that is more creating the environment of psychological war.”

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/10/brexit-transitional-deal-will-lock-uk-into-eu-court-guy-verhofstadt

Edited February 10, 2017 by chalga

[unbeliever 10]

They're talking tough in public whist issuing orders to make nice in private.

They're just optimising their bargaining positions and playing to their own political audiences. It's to be expected.

 

---------- Post added 11-02-2017 at 10:13 ----------

 

UK annual growth for 2016: 4.3%.

Best since 2011.

 

---------- Post added 11-02-2017 at 10:52 ----------

 

Seems I'm not the only one who thinks the EURO and by extension the EU, is in serious jeopardy:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b08dx4lz/this-world-after-brexit-the-battle-for-europe

Edited February 11, 2017 by unbeliever

[tzijlstra 11]

UK annual growth for 2016: 4.3%.

Best since 2011.

 

I'm not sure what the source for this is?

 

What I am sure is that I have said, time and time again, that the UK needs immigration to keep its economy going. There are now signs on the job market that vacancies are not being filled, this is going to increase in severity and will lead to my prediction coming through: Kill immigration, kill the economy. That is the choice. As soon as May stamps down on EU migrants coming here and starts demanding visas for those already here the economy will hit a deep recession.

[LeMaquis 10]

UK annual growth for 2016: 4.3%.

Best since 2011.

 

Only in your fantasy world.

 

"In 2016, the UK economy grew by 2%, slower than the previous two years, which showed growth of 2.2% and 3.1% respectively".

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/26/uk-gdp-figures-2016-brexit-economy

 

"Looking at 2016 as a whole, growth slowed modestly to 2 percent from 2.2 percent in 2015 and 3.1 percent in 2014."

 

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth

 

---------- Post added 13-02-2017 at 19:59 ----------

 

I'm not sure what the source for this is?

 

A tendency to justify his arguments by telling easily refutable lies.

[unbeliever 10]

I'm not sure what the source for this is?

 

What I am sure is that I have said, time and time again, that the UK needs immigration to keep its economy going. There are now signs on the job market that vacancies are not being filled, this is going to increase in severity and will lead to my prediction coming through: Kill immigration, kill the economy. That is the choice. As soon as May stamps down on EU migrants coming here and starts demanding visas for those already here the economy will hit a deep recession.

 

Indistrial output growth, not GDP growth. My bad. Got it from BBC's Andrew Neil. Can't find the original source

[cgksheff 44]

A thought-provoking play set in a post-brexit England aired this afternoon.

 

Well worth a listen if you have 45 minutes available:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08dnhjx

[El Cid 220]

Inflation has gone up to 1.8%, but wages are going up at 2.7%; so we cannot complain

 

I guess its the increasing minimum wage that is going up fast, perhaps middle earnings not so good?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38966692

[Obelix 11]

I'm not sure what the source for this is?

 

That'd be the Brexit alternative facts market I suspect... :sigh:

 

Real figures are here. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyq/pgdp

[unbeliever 10]

That'd be the Brexit alternative facts market I suspect... :sigh:

 

Real figures are here. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyq/pgdp

 

If Obelix had not childishly blocked me, he would be aware that I've already corrected this mistake and apologised. But never mind.

 

Indistrial output growth, not GDP growth. My bad. Got it from BBC's Andrew Neil. Can't find the original source

Edited February 14, 2017 by unbeliever

[Obelix 11]

I post and ooh look - another post from my stalker immediately appears