The Consequences of Brexit (part 2)

[Justin Smith 10]

The Liberal Democrats have caused a major upset in the latest referendum over staying in the EU

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38178486

 

It`ll be interesting to see how the Brexiteers argue this one away, but they will. A bit of truth bending was never a problem for them in the Referendum, not even now. Apparently 30% of the Tories who switched to the LibDems actually voted Leave, they just don`t want the "hard Brexit" that the present extremist dominated Govt keep (falsely) telling us the UK voted for,

 

Incidentally, the Richmond by-election replicated the Witney one, a 22% swing to the LibDems at Richmond and a 20% swing at Witney. These are huge swings.

I`d love to know how the Dailly Express and the Daily Mail are going to present this. Can anyone tell me why anyone reads those papers ? I won`t call them newspapers (because they aren`t).

 

A divided country, who can deny we haven`t got that big style now. And all for something most people (85%) weren`t that bothered about only 18 months ago.... Still UKIP and some right wing Tories are happy and that`s all that counts.

Edited December 2, 2016 by Justin Smith

[unbeliever 10]

It`ll be interesting to see how the Brexiteers argue this one away, but they will. A bit of truth bending was never a problem for them in the Referendum, not even now. Apparently 30% of the Tories who switched to the LibDems actually voted Leave, they just don`t want the "hard Brexit" that the present extremist dominated Govt keep (falsely) telling us the UK voted for,

 

Incidentally, the Richmond by-election almost exactly replicated the Witney one, a 22% swing to the LibDems at Richmond, a 23% swing at Witney.

I`d most of all, love to know how the Dailly Express and the Daily Mail are going to present this. Can anyone tell me why anyone reads those papers, I won`t call them newspapers (because they aren`t).

 

They voted 70% to remain in the referendum, and now 52% for the remain candidate offered to them. They've not changed their minds about anything really.

You can't really think that a vote in 1 constituency out of 650, where if anything remain has lost votes, compares in any way to the referendum.

 

This is actually a good thing on every level. A remain dominated constituency now have a remain candidate to represent them and argue for re-entry into the EU. That's as it should be.

Edited December 2, 2016 by unbeliever

[Justin Smith 10]

They voted 70% to remain in the referendum, and now 52% for the remain candidate offered to them. They've not changed their minds about anything really.

You can't really think that a vote in 1 constituency out of 650, where if anything remain has lost votes, compares in any way to the referendum.

 

This is actually a good thing on every level. A remain dominated constituency now have a remain candidate to represent them and argue for re-entry into the EU. That's as it should be.

 

You`re forgetting the Witney by-election, a similar huge swing. You`re also forgetting that, apparently, 30% of those who switched to the LibDems voted Leave at the referendum. If you think the UK voted for a Hard Brexit at the referendum, how do you excplain that ?

I also think you`re forgetting the fact Heathrow expansion may have influenced the result the other way, there`s a lot of ill feeling about it donw there and support for Goldsmith because of it. He still had a huge swing against him though.

 

Tell me UB, I`d love to know, which newspaper do you read ?

Edited December 2, 2016 by Justin Smith

[Harrystottle 10]

The Liberal Democrats have caused a major upset in the latest referendum over staying in the EU

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38178486

 

Some referendum. Traditionally it used to be a LidDem seat, it voted Remain in the referendum and Labour voters switched to the Libdems to get Zac Goldsmith out.

 

Oh, and the turnout was 53.6%, so the locals weren't exactly overwhelmingly enthused about turning out.

 

It is the LibDems great day though; if it keeps on like this they'll have to buy a bigger minibus to transport their MP's.

[unbeliever 10]

You`re forgetting the Witney by-election, a similar huge swing. You`re also forgetting that, apparently, 30% of those who switched to the LibDems voted Leave at the referendum. If you think the UK voted for a Hard Brexit at the referendum, how do you excplain that ?

I also think you`re forgetting the fact Heathrow expansion may have influenced the result the other way, there`s a lot of ill feeling about it donw there and support for Goldsmith because of it. He still had a huge swing against him though.

 

Tell me UB, I`d love to know, which newspaper do you read ?

 

I read the Guardian and the Telegraph mostly. How abot you?

 

You're grasping at straws if you think the UK people are turning against Brexit.

With many of the doom predictions already shown as lies mistaken much of the fear that remain depended on for their votes is gone.

[Justin Smith 10]

Some referendum. Traditionally it used to be a LidDem seat, it voted Remain in the referendum and Labour voters switched to the Libdems to get Zac Goldsmith out.

 

Oh, and the turnout was 53.6%, so the locals weren't exactly overwhelmingly enthused about turning out.

 

It is the LibDems great day though; if it keeps on like this they'll have to buy a bigger minibus to transport their MP's.

 

What about the Witney by-election ?

 

---------- Post added 02-12-2016 at 10:01 ----------

 

I read the Guardian and the Telegraph mostly. How abot you?

 

You're grasping at straws if you think the UK people are turning against Brexit.

With many of the doom predictions already shown as lies mistaken much of the fear that remain depended on for their votes is gone.

 

I read The Times, though these days (since our lad was born) I`ve so little time I only buy it on Monday, it takes me a week to read it........

 

I`m not grasping at straws because I never thought a majority were against it in the first place, bearing in mind that it was 52/48 and a significant number voted on issues that were nothing to do with the EU. What I do know to be a fact is there was not, and is not, a majority for a "hard Brexit". I also think that once the terms of our leaving are known there won`t even be a majority for leaving even including those who voted Leave because they hate the Tories, they wanted another £350 million a week into the NHS, they hate the South, they hate the establishment etc etc etc

Edited December 2, 2016 by Justin Smith

[unbeliever 10]

What about the Witney by-election ?

 

---------- Post added 02-12-2016 at 10:01 ----------

 

 

I read The Times, though these days (since our lad was born) I`ve so little time I only buy it on Monday, it takes me a week to read it........

 

I`m not grasping at straws because I never thought a majority were against it in the first place, bearing in mind that it was 52/48 and a significant number voted on issues that were nothing to do with the EU. What I do know to be a fact is there was not, and is not, a majority for a "hard Brexit". I also think that once the terms of our leaving are known there won`t even be a majority for leaving even including those who voted Leave because they hate the Tories, they wanted another £350 million a week into the NHS, they hate the South, they hate the establishment etc etc etc

 

 

Pew research indicates that 6% of the UK population favour further European integration. Staying in the EU means further European integration. Therefore 42% of the population voted in the referendum for something they don't want because of project fear. Now that the fear is diminished so is support for remain.

 

http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/06/07/euroskepticism-beyond-brexit/

Edited December 2, 2016 by unbeliever

[Zamo 10]

Pew research indicates that 6% of the UK population favour further European integration. Staying in the EU means further European integration. Therefore 42% of the population voted in the referendum for something they don't want because of project fear. Now that the fear is diminished so is support for remain.

 

http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/06/07/euroskepticism-beyond-brexit/

 

Further evidence that the fear factor is fading can be seen in the Richmond Park by-election. The Lib Dem winner, Ms Olney, campaigned on an anti-Brexit ticket in a constituency where she said 70% voted against Brexit at the referendum. If, as she claims, it was a vote about Brexit then we should note she only got 49.7% of the vote. The remain vote has haemorrhaged and if that swing was replicated across the country then we'd probably see 2/3rds of the population now backing Brexit. Strange that Ms Olney sees this as a mandate for voting against Brexit!!

[unbeliever 10]

Further evidence that the fear factor is fading can be seen in the Richmond Park by-election. The Lib Dem winner, Ms Olney, campaigned on an anti-Brexit ticket in a constituency where she said 70% voted against Brexit at the referendum. If, as she claims, it was a vote about Brexit then we should note she only got 49.7% of the vote. The remain vote has haemorrhaged and if that swing was replicated across the country then we'd probably see 2/3rds of the population now backing Brexit. Strange that Ms Olney sees this as a mandate for voting against Brexit!!

 

It might be reasonable to argue that Ms Olney has a personal mandate to vote against Brexit. That mandate can't be extended beyond her constituency.

[El Cid 214]

Further evidence that the fear factor is fading can be seen in the Richmond Park by-election. The Lib Dem winner, Ms Olney, campaigned on an anti-Brexit ticket in a constituency where she said 70% voted against Brexit at the referendum. If, as she claims, it was a vote about Brexit then we should note she only got 49.7% of the vote. The remain vote has haemorrhaged and if that swing was replicated across the country then we'd probably see 2/3rds of the population now backing Brexit. Strange that Ms Olney sees this as a mandate for voting against Brexit!!

 

That is good logic, almost.

 

Even without Brexit, she should have won. Labour managed an all time lowest vote.

[Zamo 10]

That is good logic, almost.

 

Even without Brexit, she should have won. Labour managed an all time lowest vote.

 

It is her logic that it was a vote on Brexit. I simply point out that if that's the case then remain support has drifted significantly.

 

Yes, the Labour vote really did haemorrhage. Nothing to do with the out of touch views and policies of the left... it's normalisation of deviance you know!!

[aa2900 10]

Further evidence that the fear factor is fading can be seen in the Richmond Park by-election. The Lib Dem winner, Ms Olney, campaigned on an anti-Brexit ticket in a constituency where she said 70% voted against Brexit at the referendum. If, as she claims, it was a vote about Brexit then we should note she only got 49.7% of the vote. The remain vote has haemorrhaged and if that swing was replicated across the country then we'd probably see 2/3rds of the population now backing Brexit. Strange that Ms Olney sees this as a mandate for voting against Brexit!!

It is her logic that it was a vote on Brexit. I simply point out that if that's the case then remain support has drifted significantly.

 

Yes, the Labour vote really did haemorrhage. Nothing to do with the out of touch views and policies of the left... it's normalisation of deviance you know!!

 

 

Or could it be that the issue of whether we leave the EU has been decided and most folk have moved on. They are looking for an MP to represent the constituency not one to fight old battles. It's like revisiting Orgreave. It might amuse a few who still burn Thatcher images on bonfires but it doesn't win elections. It is reflected in Labour's performance and how they stand in the polls.