Who will succeed Cameron?

[Radan 10]

Yes, I made a spelling mistake of her name We will have a better indication after Tuesday's first round of voting. If Theresa May gets well over 50% of votes in the first round, then it would make sense for the remaining candidates to withdraw and not put the vote to the Conservative members.

 

There was a story on the BBC - she had some 80 odd backers. Gove had 18!! The others had middling 20s. With about 150 to declare I think that might happen. Can't find the link anymore, it's lost in the sea of other stuff.

 

Will she still have to wait til September to become PM if she wins comprehensively next week and the others withdraw?

 

Edit: found it

 

'As of Friday evening, Mrs May had secured the backing of 96 of the party's 330 MPs in the leadership context, while Stephen Crabb had 22, Mrs Leadsom had 21, Mr Gove had 18 and Liam Fox had 10.'

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36696908

Edited July 3, 2016 by Radan

[Gamston 10]

There are three men and two woman in the contest, so anyone with those feeling you describe has a choice of three men. The best person should get the job.

 

Not anyone. Only Conservative MP's.

Yes only Conservative's have a say who will be the next Prime Minister, just like Labour chose Gordon Brown when Tony Blair resigned.

 

Flanker made a mess of his quote.

 

---------- Post added 03-07-2016 at 17:37 ----------

 

There was a story on the BBC - she had some 80 odd backers. Gove had 18!! The others had middling 20s. With about 150 to declare I think that might happen. Can't find the link anymore, it's lost in the sea of other stuff.

 

Will she still have to wait til September to become PM if she wins comprehensively next week and the others withdraw?

No it would be within hours after she has seen the Queen.

[Radan 10]

Yes only Conservative's have a say who will be the next Prime Minister, just like Labour chose Gordon Brown when Tony Blair resigned.

 

Flanker made a mess of his quote.

 

---------- Post added 03-07-2016 at 17:37 ----------

 

No it would be within hours after she has seen the Queen.

 

Good. Hopefully the new PM will be sorted by Tuesday.

[Gamston 10]

Good. Hopefully the new PM will be sorted by Tuesday.

The vote is on Tuesday, then discussions will start based on the results. If Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom are the two clear leading candidates, then a deal could be done between them, such as Andrea Leadsom being given the job as BREXIT Minister in a Theresa May cabinet. All this is assuming the no hoper candidates withdraw.

[Radan 10]

The vote is on Tuesday, then discussions will start based on the results. If Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom are the two clear leading candidates, then a deal could be done between them, such as Andrea Leadsom being given the job as BREXIT Minister in a Theresa May cabinet. All this is assuming the no hoper candidates withdraw.

 

Quite possibly. Would that be how you'd like to see it played out?

 

I think May has hinted she might want a GE election before committing to Brexit. That could be risky. Tory party members might vote against her so Leadsom becomes PM and the Tories can arrange Brexit before 2020. A snap election might mean a coalition government.

[Gamston 10]

Quite possibly. Would that be how you'd like to see it played out?

 

I think May has hinted she might want a GE election before committing to Brexit. That could be risky. Tory party members might vote against her so Leadsom becomes PM and the Tories can arrange Brexit before 2020. A snap election might mean a coalition government.

I thought Theresa May has made it clear there would be no General Election until 2020. The last thing the country needs is a coalition Government. The Conservative's were roughly 50-50 for BREXIT, which reflects how the nation voted, and all the candidates say BREXIT will happen.

 

Yes, I would be happy if it was sorted next week.

[Radan 10]

I thought Theresa May has made it clear there would be no General Election until 2020. The last thing the country needs is a coalition Government. The Conservative's were roughly 50-50 for BREXIT, which reflects how the nation voted, and all the candidates say BREXIT will happen.

 

Yes, I would be happy if it was sorted next week.

 

Yes, I think I'm wrong about her saying there might be a snap election.

 

Agree, a coalition government could be a disaster. Nothing would be agreed. That might mean they don't trigger 50, which for remainers sounds ok, but the uncertainty would be awful.

 

New PM next week, ignore the referendum or just get on and get Brexit negotiations started!

[Gamston 10]

Yes, I think I'm wrong about her saying there might be a snap election.

 

Agree, a coalition government could be a disaster. Nothing would be agreed. That might mean they don't trigger 50, which for remainers sounds ok, but the uncertainty would be awful.

 

New PM next week, ignore the referendum or just get on and get Brexit negotiations started!

The referendum result certainly will not be ignored and article 50 needs to be triggered sooner rather than later. The Conservative's will be looking to have a year until the General Election after BREXIT has been completed. January 1st 2019 is my prediction for when the UK will finally start life again outside the EU

[andyofborg 11]

.... article 50 needs to be triggered sooner rather than later.

 

While article 50 needs to be triggered in a timely manner, we can't do it too soon. We need to decide what our negotiating position is before we do this.

 

Given the complexity of the task ahead 2 years is not a long time. We need our position pretty much finalised before we trigger article 50

[I1L2T3 10]

While article 50 needs to be triggered in a timely manner, we can't do it too soon. We need to decide what our negotiating position is before we do this.

 

Given the complexity of the task ahead 2 years is not a long time. We need our position pretty much finalised before we trigger article 50

 

Very true. We need to understand what trade model we want, single market access, whether we will allow free movement, how much we are willing to contribute to the EU budget, and we need to define a multitiude of other initial negotiating positions.

[Flanker7 20]

I thought Theresa May has made it clear there would be no General Election until 2020. The last thing the country needs is a coalition Government. The Conservative's were roughly 50-50 for BREXIT,* which reflects how the nation voted, and all the candidates say BREXIT will happen.

 

Yes, I would be happy if it was sorted next week.

 

In a 2 horse race 50/50 is 50/50. Its not for either side?

 

'Radans' figures for MP votes in the referendum - " All 8 Lib Dem MPs backed Remain. As did all the SDLP. The DUP backed Brexit. Plaid Cymru and the SNP all backed remain. Sinn Fein backed remain.

10 Labour MPs backed Brexit and about a third of the Tories."

 

*my bold

 

There are 330 Conservative MP's in this government. The difference between 50/50 and 66/33 is 55 votes so I think that makes a difference.

 

I understand that the Conservative way of selecting their leader is for their MP's to select 2 candidates for the membership to choose between. Therefore, for the Conservative party members, it will never be 3 men and 2 women on the ballot sheet.

 

It's important to get the numbers and systems accurate before drawing arguments from them.

Edited July 3, 2016 by Flanker7

[Radan 10]

*my bold

 

In a 2 horse race 50/50 is 50/50. Its not for either side?

 

'Radans' figures for MP votes in the referendum - " All 8 Lib Dem MPs backed Remain. As did all the SDLP. The DUP backed Brexit. Plaid Cymru and the SNP all backed remain. Sinn Fein backed remain.

10 Labour MPs backed Brexit and about a third of the Tories."

 

There are 330 Conservative MP's in this government. The difference between 50/50 and 66/33 is 55 votes so I think that makes a difference.

 

I understand that the Conservative way of selecting their leader is for their MP's to select 2 candidates for the membership to choose between. Therefore, for the Conservative party members, it will never be 3 men and 2 women on the ballot sheet.

 

It's important to get the numbers and systems accurate before drawing arguments from them.

 

Correct about two names on the party member ballot form. Tory MPs narrow it down to those two. It's not unconceivable that with May having 4 times the number of backers at this early stage that she might get the job by default though.

 

Edit: sorry didn't realise you were amending your post as I wrote mine

Edited July 3, 2016 by Radan