Did you know Oil did Peak at $75 per barrel during last week...

[Cliff Clavin 10]

...and aparently there is no end in sight as to how high it will go. According to some sources it could hit as high as $200 if there is millitary action in Iran. Taking the "If" factor away it is still very volitile; there only as to be a hiccup in this country or that country and we could be staring at above $100 per barrel Oil. So what? I hear you say - well just a couple of years ago Oil was pretty stagnant at around $20 per Barrel. Now its 2 times that price but ask yourself as your wage increased 3 times? mine hasn't.

 

Now some people say its got a lot to do with trouble in the middle east - there's always been trouble there. Its like a programme I watched about TV in 1973 last week, they claimed TV suffered because of the energy crises which they claimed was because of trouble in the middle east - wat they forgot to mention was that there was a miners strike in the UK and the USA had Peaked with their own oil supplies - this meant that they could no longer meet their own domestic demands thus they too now became net oil-importers instead of exporters for the first time. The main trouble in the middle east at this time was that OPEC seized the opportunity to squeeze the USA with supplies thus seizing control of pricing.

 

Now fast forward to 1979 things were sorted out with OPEC and normal buisness of economic devolpment continued but there was Cival War in Iran in 1979 which pushed Oil prices to an all time high in 1980 - which by todays standards would've been $80 dollars per barrel. This was the main reason for recession and high interest rates at during this period of time.

 

Now roll forward to today we are at $75 per barrel or there abouts and the middle east is as troubled or trouble free as its always been since it was needed for its Oil. So if there is to be sneeze over there Oil is going to rise no doubt about it and it will go higher than 1980 ($80 adjusted after inflation) price. What I have to ask is are we prepared for interest rates rising to 15-18% again?

 

Another thing to think about is could these hikes be to do with Peak Oil? What with the demand from China and India adding to an already high world demand for Oil, have we reached the point were its becomming increasingly more difficult to suck Oil out of the ground fast enough. Hell yeah! I hear you say, "Oil companies made record profits last year" but what did they do with those profits - well they invested less money in to finding new Oil fields, they haven't bothered investing in to new Oil refineries (you can't increase your Oil out put without then), they began shutting petrol/gas stations down rather than making new ones and nothing to do with Oil companies GM and Ford are staring bankruptcy in the face. So if we are facing Peak Oil why not admit it, mainly because when shell annouced their reserves were over exagerated the shares index suffered, especially shells and other Shell Oil dependants; so it doesn't make economic sense to admit to Peak Oil.

 

Now even the BBC are begining to contemplate the question of Peak Oil http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4922172.stm they also ran it on Newsnight a few months ago. I think it may take another 12 months before it reaches mainstream time of 7PM on the BBC but you can keep up to date with news on Peak Oil at http://www.powerswitch.org.uk

 

Peak Oil doesn't mean running out of Oil or riding a bike, it means higher petrol prices, higher food prices, higher interest rates and sustained recession!

[Crayfish 10]

Quite a lot of oil left in Venezuala, I hear

 

No doubt means they're going to move massive amounts of machinery into one of the richest and most interesting ecosystems in the world and wreck the place.

 

Wish alternative energy / oil-synthesising microorganism developers would get a move on...

[Cliff Clavin 10]

Quite a lot of oil left in Venezuala, I hear

 

No doubt means they're going to move massive amounts of machinery into one of the richest and most interesting ecosystems in the world and wreck the place.

 

Wish alternative energy / oil-synthesising microorganism developers would get a move on...

 

It's not that there's quite a lot of Oil left in Venezuala it's more like Saudi has exagerated their reserves, which means World economic trouble. There are no more "Elephant" fields left to find and the biggest one the Ghawar Oil Field has peaked and is now in depletion.

 

Venezuala is also an OPEC country so this means their reserves don't need to be proved thus they could be exagerrating too, which makes things even worse. Why exagerrate your reserves? Simple it means your allowed to sell more thus make a quicker short term profit!

[Cliff Clavin 10]

$90 is looking a good bet for this year.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2095-2147561,00.html

[1Man&hisBMW 10]

reduce taxation and people will be able to afford it.

[wolfman 10]

The argument of taxing fuel in order to reduce consumption simply hasn't worked, its now going to be extended to taxes on anything and everything which can harm the environment. Its just another scam from the Govt to tax us all to our eye balls.

 

Fuel is now expected to exceed £1 a litre, its about high time the Govt reduced its taxation!!!

[4U2NV 10]

Higher may it go. less money for the government in a way the robbing gets.

A barrel in the late 90's was under $20 at one point i think, cant remember unleaded being around 3 times less that it is now.

[defstef 10]

Crude oil is worth much more to humanity in the essentially more processed forms (and lower volume usages) that drive the polymer/new material and chemical (and therefore pharmaceutical) industries, than it is as something we just burn. Surely as sources dwindle, and prices rise, there will be at some point a time when it becomes economically inviable to use it as a fuel?

 

[edit]: I should say worth more to humanity and businesspeople, as economically plastics/pharmaceuticals etc. are worth more (by volume) as well as being more useful (in the long term).

[venger 10]

reduce taxation and people will be able to afford it.

 

 

Can I live in your World please

[venger 10]

Surely as sources dwindle, and prices rise, there will be at some point a time when it becomes economically inviable to use it as a fuel?

 

Perhaps for the majority

[Cliff Clavin 10]

reduce taxation and people will be able to afford it.

 

We are actually paying less Tax now on fuel than we were when it was 74p per litre. The problem is it seems is that we are reaching if not at Peak Oil and the Government are having to drop tax on fuel so as to offset the price otherwise we'd be well over £1 per litre already.

 

Peak Oil doesn't mean running out it means the end of easy accessible Oil and with China now using so much it means it getting more expensive. So we are looking a permanent recession in the face and £2 or even £3 per litre Petrol in the not too distant future.

 

Its obvious Peak Oil is imminent or now because the BBC have even began to discuss it and even though Oil companies made record profits they are investing less money in to exploration and refineries and even shutting petrol stations down - a strange thing to do when your at your most successful and demand getting even higher. Yep if they could they would be pumping even more Black Gold out but they are at full stretch so watch for the prices to continue to rise well above inflation. I'm just glad I don't have a £100,000 mortgage or ££££'s of credit card debt when Peak Oil hits the interest rate in the next few months or couple of years.

[Cliff Clavin 10]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,193624,00.html

 

Fox news are even carrying Peak Oil stories too.