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Extreme weather thread - Summer 2015

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There are certain tabloid headlines that can always be relied upon at certain times of year every year regardless, usually 'coldest ever winter', 'hottest ever summer' and 'train fares to increase'.


I will refer you to the BBC Weather website regarding the long range forecast....




Monday 19 October—Sunday 25 October


How long with high pressure hang around?


Pressure is expected to remain relatively high as we start next week but we are expecting high pressure to gradually weaken and frontal systems will begin to come close to and at times affect the UK.


What will this mean for our weather? Temperatures, both by day and night, will recover slowly to what we would expect for this time of year. Rainfall amounts are in general expected to remain quite low, while others will see normal amounts of rainfall return. However, this transition from a theme of high pressure to one of lower pressure bringing at times unsettled weather is open to question.


Monday 26 October—Sunday 8 November


What's in store for the end of autumn?


We are very fortunate to have quite literally hundreds of atmospheric computer models from all around the world to look at. Grouping the ideas that come out of these computer models can be tricky and trying to find realistic patterns in what they are saying is a nothing short of a challenge. What is emerging from the various long range models is a variety of weather patterns. How do we interpret this? This indicates that we are likely to see a very changeable weather pattern ranging from at times mild when rain comes in off the Atlantic and at times cold when cold air seeps in from the cooler continent. The weather will be further complicated by the fact that we are reaching the end of another season with shorter days and less sunshine and we begin to transition towards winter.


Next week


The end of autumn will be in sight in the long term models and winter will be just around the corner. Find out next week if we can put any more detail on Halloween weather.


Monthly forecasting


The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.

A lot of words to say just "We don't know for sure..."

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